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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Bachmann and Pawlenty Gaining in GOP Field?
Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., speaks in St. Paul, Minnesota on June 18, 2011
Yes, according to the latest AP-GfK Poll.- Republicans still give Romney the highest favorability rating among announced candidates, at 61 percent. Palin, who’s keeping everyone guessing about her intentions, is holding steady, too, with a 63 percent favorability rating.
- Bachmann’s favorability rating jumped from 41 percent to 54 percent among Republicans. A third still have no opinion about her, and it’s too soon to tell if her boost will endure or was a June phenomenon.
- Huntsman, who announced his candidacy this week but still is relatively unknown nationally, had a 23 percent favorability rating among Republicans. He’s gotten better known — 59 percent had no opinion about him in the latest poll, down slightly from 66 percent a month earlier. But the result was an increase in those with an unfavorable opinion, from 11 percent to 17 percent, with a greater uptick among tea party supporters.
- Pawlenty, one of the first to get into the race, saw his favorable ratings rise 10 percentage points to 43 percent. His support among tea party backers was up 11 points.
The poll was conducted June 16-20 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The survey included 429 Republicans, and that subset had a larger, 6.2 percentage point margin of error.
This is a national poll and still has Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin as the leaders.
Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty are gaining in favorability because they are becoming better known.
I want to see the polling with Sarah Palin out of the race and Rick Perry in, but we will have to wait for these match-ups until toward the end of summer.
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President 2012 GOP Florida Poll Watch: Romney 27% Palin 17% Bachmann 17% Cain 10%
The favorability chart of Florida Presidential candidates
According to the latest PPP Poll.Mitt Romney has a double digit lead for the Republican Presidential nomination in Florida, further cementing his front runner status in the wake of Mike Huckabee’s exit from the race.
Romney is at 27% to 17% for Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann, 10% for Herman Cain, 8% for Newt Gingrich, 7% for Ron Paul, 4% for Tim Pawlenty, and 2% for Jon Huntsman.
Romney now has the outright lead in PPP’s most recent polls in all 5 of the key early Republican contests: in addition to the Florida advantage he’s up by 9 in South Carolina, 6 in Iowa, 15 in Nevada, and 23 in New Hampshire.
Mitt Romney continues to poll well in Florida and can be continued to be regarded as the front-runner. But Michelle Bachmann has surged. So, has Herman Cain.
With the likelihood that Sarah Palin will NOT run for the Presidency and with Bachmann’s likely good showing in Iowa and South Carolina, Florida may be the momentum state for Bachmann to overtake Mitt Romney. Bachmann has a real chance here in picking up Palin and Cain voters once they are out of the race.
But, Sarah Palin remains the wild card and should she run, she might enable Mitt Romney to split the conservative Tea Party vote and win with all of the rest.
Beyond Romney’s continued strength the big stories here are the rise of Michele Bachmann and the collapse of Newt Gingrich. Bachmann’s 17% standing represents a 10 point gain from PPP’s last Florida poll in late March, when she stood at only 7%. Her strength comes from leading the field with ‘very conservative’ voters at 21%, followed by Palin at 20%, and Romney at 18%.
Romney’s Florida lead is built on a familiar formula. He’s not winning with the far right voters who constitute a plurality of the Republican electorate, but he’s at least staying competitive with them. Meanwhile he’s dominating the field with moderates (a 36-15 lead over Palin) and with voters who identify themselves as just ‘somewhat conservative’ (a 32-15 advantage over Bachmann.)
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President 2012: Michele Bachmann on Afghanistan = “Stay the Course”
As President Obama announces Afghanistan tropp withdrawals, likely GOP Presidential candidate Michele Bachmann takes a different approach. Here is her statement in an interview with The Weekly Standard.
On Afghanistan, I firmly believe that we are at a point where we’ve got to stay the course, and we’ve got to finish the job. Reports coming out of Helmand right now are positive. … David Petraeus, who wrote the book on counterinsurgency and on the surge strategy, is successfully prosecuting the surge.
Now, President Obama has not told the story the way President Bush did. President Bush did let the country know where we were at, and I give him a lot of credit because when he was getting all sorts of invective pointed against him, he stood against the world for what he knew to be right in dealing with terrorism. And perhaps no other would have stood the way that he did. I give him great credit for that.
Now in Afghanistan, we are making great progress. We have to win southern Afghanistan, then we have to go on and win eastern Afghanistan. I believe that we will be victorious, and we’ll end it. I understand why people are frustrated. I completely understand. But I do trust General Petraeus in that effort and in what he is doing over there. And I think that they are doing what we need to do.
This is a constrast to both President Obama and the GOP’s Mitt Romney. But, it is a safe policy position and what Obama’s general are recommending.
However, American voters are tired of years of war (on the LEFT and RIGHT) and the massive costs associated with them, especially with Osama Bin Laden’s death.
And, remember Obama’s troop withdrawals will be modest at best.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: No Major Shake Up In GOP Field After New Hampshire Debate
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Gallup Daily tracking finds no major shake-up in the GOP presidential candidates’ ratings among Republicans nationwide in the two weeks surrounding a New Hampshire debate that featured seven of the candidates. Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, and Michele Bachmann continue to enjoy the best overall positioning by virtue of having higher name recognition and Positive Intensity Scores than their potential rivals. By comparison, Jon Huntsman, who formally announced his candidacy Tuesday, is recognized by 34% of Republicans and enters the race with the third-lowest Positive Intensity Score of any candidate measured.
By my read of the graph, it is Romney, Cain, Palin and Bachmann who are in the hunt. The others not so much, especially Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman, who announced today.
Additionally, Bachmann’s intensity score edged up slightly (from +18 to +22) and Cain’s declined slightly (from +28 to +23). Given the sample sizes of Republicans familiar with each candidate (smaller than those familiar with Gingrich), these changes are not statistically significant; however, if they hold for another week, they would represent real shifts after the debate.
More generally, among those with the highest Positive Intensity Scores, Cain is performing better than he did earlier this year, Romney has recovered somewhat from a decline in his ratings in late April and May, and Bachmann is on par with her earlier ratings, while Palin is near her low point for the year.
Here is a graph of positive intensity scores:
So, what does this all mean?
As, I have been saying for a few weeks: Mitt Romney is the clear front-runner with Michele Bachmann in position to make a race of it. Some pundits have been almost praying for Rick Perry or Jon Huntsman to challenge Romney. But, I just do not see it.
Romney has been campaigning for President now for over 6 years, has the campaign and personal money to air many ads and while a mainstream candidate will do extremely well in the early primary states of New Hampshire and Nevada.
Michele Bachmann of the Tea Party will do well in her native Iowa and conservative South Carolina. Whether she can beat Romney in Florida or on Super Tuesday is unknown.
Again, I don’t think Sarah Palin will run and she has made no movement lately to change that opinion. Herman Cain is not well known enough, will compete in Iowa and then go away.
So, unless someone else comes in this week it is really a Romney vs. Bachmann race.
Romney, Palin, and Bachmann continue to fare best among Republicans nationwide by simultaneously being among the best-known names in the potential presidential field as well as generating positive reactions from those familiar with them. This nexus of recognition and popularity will be essential to each candidate’s success in the primary elections next year.
Romney, Palin, Gingrich, and Paul all face the difficult challenge of improving their images among Republicans who mostly know them and have already formed opinions about them.
Johnson, Huntsman, and, to a lesser extent, Rick Santorum, Cain, and Pawlenty, all have an arguably more difficult task in needing to expand their name recognition among Republicans at a time when major national press opportunities, such as debates, are still fairly infrequent. Also, because of their lower profiles, these candidates may find that the campaign funds for buying national TV time are hard to come by, a conundrum faced by most second-tier candidates.
Additionally, Gingrich, Pawlenty, and Palin have all experienced declines in popularity at the same time that Romney, Bachmann, and Cain are mostly holding steady.
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President 2012: Michele Bachmann Hones Strategy and Orders Ed Rollins to Apologize to Sarah Palin
U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) speaks during the Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans, Louisiana June 17, 2011
Michele Bachmann is making some very smart moves.Since being elected to Congress in 2006, Bachmann has been one of the most outspoken — and controversial — members of the House. She’s also shown a tendency to veer wildly off message — as she did in 2008 when she suggested then Senator Barack Obama might harbor “anti-American” views.
Bachmann’s newly installed political team has had its own battles with message discipline — typified by campaign manager Ed Rollins’ recent comments alleging that former Alaska governor Sarah Palin hasn’t been “serious” over the last few years.
After the incident, Bachmann was “very firm” with Rollins, according to an adviser to the congresswoman, telling him this should not happen again and that there should be “no more press”. Bachmann also demanded that Rollins call the Palin people and apologize. “She is definitely not tone deaf,” the source added.Bachmann’s move to limit her exposure in the wake of her debate performance is a smart strategy designed to avoid accidentally trampling on the momentum she built with that performance.
The question for Bachmann — as it is for all candidates who have never been subjected to the intense scrutiny of a presidential race — is whether she can maintain that message discipline over the grinding months on the campaign trail to come.
Message discipline is something Sarah Palin has never been able to grasp and to her detriment – as her negative favorable polling demonstrates. But, if Bachmann can refine her message and concentrate on defeating Romney, she may find far better success than any of the pundits would have predicted a few months ago. She is a natural for Iowa and South Carolina and NO other GOP candidate can come close to competing with her in those states.
And, Ed Rollins, while very capable and who has a track record of success, does have a habit of running off at the mouth. Putting the brakes on Rollins, while ingratiating yourself to Sarah Palin who, if she does not run, WILL do events and fundraising for you is a no-brain decision.
It’s a near-certainty that Bachmann will slip as she did when she suggested that the battle of Lexington and Concord was fought in New Hampshire.
An isolated error or misstep here and there is to be expected and will be committed by every candidate in the field — including President Obama. (Remember arugula!)
But, for Bachmann the bar will be higher (or lower depending on where you are standing) since there is a narrative ready and waiting to be written — because of her past public flubs — that she is too prone to straying off message to win the nomination.
That is a dangerous storyline for Bachmann. To her credit, she seems to grasp that fact and is taking steps to counteract it.
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President 2012: Does Texas Governor Rick Perry Have a Path to the GOP Nomination?
In this June 12, 2011, photo Texas Gov. Rick Perry speaks at a United For Life event, organized by an Hispanic anti-abortion group, in Los Angeles
I would say NO because among other things he has waited too long.Perry would sort of be damned if he does (enter Iowa and lose to Bachmann and/or other opponents) and damned if he doesn’t (Bachmann or Pawlenty gain momentum heading into Iowa). And New Hampshire is probably the least friendly early primary state for him. He’s strong on social issues; many in the Granite State lean libertarian. He slams the Democrats and weak-kneed Republicans; New Hampshire allows independents and Democrats to vote. Perry gives fiery speeches, but he’s not known as a policy maven; New Hampshire-ites expect loads of town halls and coffees where they can quiz the candidate on everything from the flat tax to waste and abuse in the Department of Veterans Affairs.
What then would be his first clear shot — South Carolina? It’s sounding a little bit Rudy Giulianish (waiting too long to impress takes you out of contention).
Then, there will be questions about his SQUISHY conservatism while pandering to Hispanics and his Texas state budget deficit. His record of stealing jobs from California and then boasting about it will not endear hm to California GOP voters.
I don’t see how Perry can attract enough donors to support a candidacy all the way to South Carolina, where he may still lose to Romney and Bachmann.
So, I don’t really think Governor Perry enters the race.
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California, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Polling, President 2012, Rick Perry, Rudy Giuliani, Sarah Palin
President 2012 California GOP Poll Watch: Romney 25% Giuliani 17% Palin 10% Paul 7%
According to the latest Field Poll.
California Republicans favor presidential candidate Mitt Romney by a comfortable margin over other Republicans, a Field Poll released today shows.
When stacked up against 11 other announced or potential Republican candidates, Romney is the first choice of an eye-catching 25 percent of GOP voters in the state. If former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is excluded, Romney’s share jumps to 30 percent.
“He’s got a commanding lead in the early going,” pollster Mark DiCamillo said. “Romney has the formula of both being well-known and being positively perceived.”
Though the former Massachusetts governor announced his formal candidacy only June 2, Romney has long been beating the bushes for support. He spent $107 million seeking the 2008 Republican nomination, including $8.4 million that he raised from California donors.
The Los Angeles region was the third-leading source of campaign donations for Romney’s 2008 campaign, behind the Boston and Salt Lake City areas, figures compiled by the Center for
Responsive Politics show.
“He’s just a well-known figure,” DiCamillo noted. “He has tremendous name (identification), and that converts to preferences.”
Romney is viewed favorably by 56 percent of California Republicans and unfavorably by only 25 percent.
Perhaps this polling is why Mayor Rudy Giuliani continues to flirt with getting into the race.
But, if Rudy does not, Mitt Romney looks like a winner in California although Michele Bachmann who is a late entrant and is not known near as much – 42% have no impression of her candidacy may play here; as may Texas Governor Rick Perry, if he decides to run.
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President 2012 New Hampshire GOP Watch: Michele Bachmann Breaks Through
According to the latest Magellan Strategies for NH Journal Poll.
- Mitt Romney – 42%
- Michele Bachmann – 10%
- Ron Paul – 10%
- Sarah Palin – 7%
- Rudy Giuliani – 6%
- Tim Pawlenty – 5%
- Newt Gingrich – 4%
- Herman Cain – 3%
- Jon Huntsman – 3%
There is little doubt that Michele Bachmann’s debate performance this week is propelling these poll numbers.
With Bachmann’s strength in Iowa, the likelihood of a win there, and while she trails former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney by a goodly amount now, she is poised to give him battle in New Hampshire.
Michele Bachmann is emerging as the anti-establsihment, Tea Party and anti-Romney candidate.
But the most surprising numbers emerged when we asked which candidates had the strongest debate performance. We asked this question of the 54% of respondents who said they watched the televised debate either on WMUR or CNN.
Thirty-nine percent said Romney gave the strongest performance. But an impressive 28% said Bachmann did. No other candidate finished in double-digits. Among self-identified conservatives who watched the debate, Bachmann performed even better. Among this group, 37% said Romney had the strongest performance, while 33% said Bachmann.
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Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Rick Perry, Sarah Palin
President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney 30% Palin 14% Cain 12% Perry 8%
According to the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.
- Mitt Romney ………………….. 30
- Sarah Palin …………………… 14
- Herman Cain ………………….. 12
- Rick Perry ……………………… 8
- Ron Paul ……………………….. 7
- Newt Gingrich ………………… 6
- Tim Pawlenty ………………… 4
- Rick Santorum ……………….. 4
- Michele Bachmann …………. 3
- Jon Huntsman ………………… 1
- Other (VOL) ………………… 1
- None (VOL) …………………. 2
- Not sure ………………………… 8
As, I said earlier today, Mitt Romney is starting to consoldiate his position as a front-runner in the GOP field. If conservatives have an alternative, they had better declare now or the current field will battle it out and Romney looks like a winner.
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President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama 47% Vs. Romney 45%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
November 2012 is a long way off but at this point PPP’s national polling is finding 2 tiers of electability for the Republican Presidential candidates. The first tier is Mitt Romney. The second tier is everyone else. Our monthly national poll finds Romney within 2 points of Barack Obama at 47-45, the closest he’s been in 7 months. The rest of the Republicans tested all trail the President by double digits.
Romney’s improved standing against Obama is another sign of his increasing strength with GOP voters. Obama’s level of support is pretty similar to where it’s been throughout the year but Romney’s gone from a 64 point lead with Republicans (77-13) on our last national poll to now a 77 point advantage with them (86-9) on this one. GOP partisans are increasingly saying that whether they support Romney in the primary or not, they’re happy to vote for him in the fall.
Against the rest of the Republican field Obama continues to hold comfortable leads. It’s 10 points over Herman Cain at 48-38, 11 points over Tim Pawlenty at 50-39, 13 over Newt Gingrich at 52-39, and 14 over Sarah Palin at 52-38.
So, what does this all mean?
Republican voters are becoming comfortable with Mitt Romney as the front-runner and as the potential GOP nominee. Should conservatives (other than Michele Bachmann who is already in the race) decide to run, they better declare very quickly.
Are you listening, Texas Governor Rick Perry?