• Chris Christie,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 New Jersey GOP Poll Watch: Romney 13% Christie 12% Palin 11% Huckabee 6%

    Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie

    Here are the results:

    Undoubtedly, should Governor Chris Christie decide to run for the Presidency, he would poll much higher. But, while Mitt Romney does a little better than Christie he is not very far ahead of Sarah Palin.

    Here is a more expanded breakdown of the results:

    A very blue Democratic State, New jersey does not figure to be in play for the GOP versus President Obama.

    Looking toward the 2012 presidential election, nearly half the state’s registered voters (48 percent) say President Barack Obama deserves re-election, while 39 percent disagree.

    Republicans are split on an opponent, with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 12 percent, Christie at 11 percent, and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin receiving 10 percent support.

    Forty-two percent did not name a candidate

    The sample of this poll is very small and its relevance is questionable. But it illustrates there is no GOP front runner.

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: Huckabee 20% Palin 14% Gingrich 13.9% Romney 13.3%

    According to the latest We Ask America Poll.

    You can see the results in the graphic above.

    It is interesting in that Mike Huckabee has made no effort to organize and/or run in Iowa and neither has Sarah Palin. So, when they both decline to run who will pick up the votes?

    What this poll means is that there continues to be no GOP Presidential front runner – as if the Iowa Caucuses really make a difference in the grand scheme of the race for President in 2012.

    I maintain Iowa is meaningless and that the nomination will be hard fought in New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida – without Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee

  • Barack Obama,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Pennsylvania Poll Watch: Obama 43% Vs Romney 36%

    According to the latest Muhlenberg College / Morning Call poll.

    • Obama 43% Vs Romney 36%
    • Obama 44% Vs. Huckabee 34%
    • Obama 53% Vs Palin 25%

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval

    • President Obama 48% Vs 44%
    • Senator Toomey (R) 39% Vs. 19%
    • Senator Casey (D) 48% Vs. 22%

    Looks like Pennsylvania will NOT be a key battleground state for the GOP in 2012. Republicans were happy when Pat Toomey replaced Arlen Specter in the Senate, but Bob Casey looks like a lock for re-election.

    Pennsylvania will not be a potential Electoral College vote pick up for the GOP Presidential nominee. Demographically, it is tough for a GOP candidate to win against Obama.

    The Poll:

    • 2/9-28/11; 471 adults, 5% margin of error
    • 395 registered voters, 5.5% margin of error (for election questions)
    • Mode: Live telephone interviews

    Note Well: Another Sarah Palin heads-up poll where she finishes last against President Obama

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Paul Ryan,  Polling,  President 2012,  Ron Paul,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    Wisconsin GOP President 2012 Poll Watch: Ryan 30% Vs Huckabee 17% Vs Gingrich 12% Vs Palin and Romney 9%

    According to the latest PPP poll.

    • Paul Ryan – 30%
    • Mike Huckabe – 17%
    • Newt Gingrich – 12%
    • Sarah Palin – 9%
    • Mitt Romney – 9%
    • Ron Paul – 5%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 4%
    • Mitch Daniels – 3%

    What is surprising is how poorly Mitt Romney is doing in Wisconsin, finishing tied with Sarah in fourth place. He does no better if you take Rep Paul Ryan out of the race, continuing to finish fourth.

    If you take the Wisconsin favorite son, Rep. Paul Ryan out of the race then:

    • Mike Huckabee – 23%
    • Sarah Palin – 15%
    • Newt Gingrich – 15%
    • Mitt Romney – 12%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 10%
    • Ron Paul – 5%
    • Mitch Daniels – 3%

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Ryan – 67% Vs. 10%
    • Palin – 65% Vs. 25%
    • Huckabee – 58% Vs. 18%
    • Gingrich – 54% Vs. 23%
    • Romney – 49% Vs. 25%

    So, the race is bunched and two of the frontrunners, Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin are doubtful candidates.

    Huckabee’s shaping up to be the strongest Republican candidate in the Big Ten states- in addition to his lead on this Wisconsin poll, he’s also led in every other every state we’ve polled in the region so far in 2011- Pennsylvania, Nebraska, and Iowa. If Huckabee does end up running you’re going to have his strength in the South and Midwest butting up against Romney’s strength in the Northeast and West.

    This is a bit of a broken record but still an important point: Republican voters love Sarah Palin but don’t want her to be their Presidential candidate. She has the highest favorability of the GOPers besides Ryan, 7 points higher than Huckabee’s and 11 points higher than Gingrich’s. But she still runs 8 points behind Huckabee on Presidential nomination choice and just ties with Gingrich. Liking someone and thinking they should occupy the White House are two very different things.

    The entire poll is here.

  • Barack Obama,  Chris Christie,  Haley Barbour,  Jon Huntsman,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012: The GOP Weirdness Factor – OUT Goes Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich

    Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee

    Goerge Will DISSES both Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich this morning.

    If pessimism isn’t creeping into Republicans’ thinking about their 2012 presi dential prospects, that is another rea son for pessimism. This is because it indicates they do not understand that sensible Americans, who pay scant attention to presidential politics at this point in the electoral cycle, must nevertheless be detecting vibrations of weirdness emanating from people associated with the party.

    The most recent vibrator is Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, who won the 2008 GOP Iowa caucuses and reached that year’s national convention with more delegates than Mitt Romney and might run again. Huckabee was asked by Steve Malzberg, a talk-radio host, this:

    “Don’t you think it’s fair also to ask [Barack Obama] . . . how come we don’t have a health record, we don’t have a college record, we don’t have a birth cer — why, Mr. Obama, did you spend millions of dollars in courts all over this country to defend against having to present a birth certificate. It’s one thing to say, ‘I’ve — you’ve seen it. Goodbye.’ But why go to court and send lawyers to defend against having to show it? Don’t you think we deserve to know more about this man?”

    Huckabee should have replied, “I’ve seen paranoia. Goodbye.” Instead, he said:

    “I would love to know more. What I know is troubling enough. And one thing that I do know is his having grown up in Kenya . . .”

    And, then Gingrich:

    Republicans should understand that when self-described conservatives like Malzberg voice question-rants like the one above and Republicans don’t recoil from them, the conservative party is indirectly injured — as it is directly when Newt Gingrich, who seems to be theatrically tiptoeing toward a presidential candidacy, speculates about Obama’s having a “Kenyan, anti-colonial” mentality.

    An article containing what Gingrich calls a “stunning insight” is “the most profound insight I have read in the last six years about Barack Obama.” Gingrich begins with a faux question: “What if he is so outside our comprehension” that he can be understood “only if you understand Kenyan, anti-colonial, behavior?” Then Gingrich says this isn’t just a question; it’s “the most accurate, predictive model for his behavior.”

    To the notion that Obama has a “Kenyan, anti-colonial,” worldview, the sensible response is: If only. Obama’s natural habitat is as American as the nearest faculty club; he is a distillation of America’s academic mentality; he is as American as the other professor-president, Woodrow Wilson. A question for former history professor Gingrich: Why implicate Kenya?

    Granted the references to Kenya and Obama’s birth certificate are just weird bu these two fellows have other baggage problems and I have never considered them serious Presidential candidates.

    So, who are Will’s favorites for 2012?

    1. Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels
    2. Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour
    3. Former Utah Gov. and departing ambassador to China Jon Huntsman
    4. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney
    5. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty

    Agreed, except I would add New Jersey governor Chris Christie as a 6th.

    Who do I think could beat President Obama?

    At this point, I would say Mitch Daniels and Chris Christie. The others will be trounced but will do NO harm to protect GOP gains in the House and the 2012 take over of the Senate.

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Wisconsin Poll Watch: Obama is Weaker Than 2008 But Solid?

    I don’t know about the solid part in the latest PPP poll.

    Wisconsin is one state where Barack Obama definitely seems to be weaker than he was in 2008, but he would still win it comfortably if he had to stand for election today if not quite by the lofty margin he did last time around.

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Obama –  49% Vs. 45%
    • Ryan – 36% Vs. 35%
    • Huckabee – 34% Vs. 37%
    • Romney – 30% Vs. 41%
    • Gingrich – 26% Vs. 49%
    • Palin 32% Vs. 60%

    Heads – Up:

    • Obama 48% Vs Huckabee 41%
    • Obama 49% Vs. Ryan 40%
    • Obama 48% Vs. Romney 38%
    • Obama 51% Vs. Gingrich 39%
    • Obama 54% Vs Palin 35%

    President Obama won Wisconsin by 14 points in 2008 and the GOP will need to win this state to be competitive in the Electoral College. Is there any wonder why Obama has stayed away from the Wisconsin public employee union flap? He is smart to stay out of it and not let it increase his negatives.

    Obama’s approval rating in the state is 49% with 45% of voters disapproving of him. The Democratic base stands pretty universally behind him at 89% approval and independents break slightly in favor of him by a 49/43 spread. Holding him below 50% is that he has virtually no support from Republicans, only 10% of whom approve of his job performance.

    Obama took Wisconsin by 14 points in 2008, so his margins over Huckabee, Ryan, Romney, and Gingrich all represent a tightening from his victory over John McCain. Still he appears to be on much more solid ground in the state than Democrats were in 2000 or 2004. As for Palin Wisconsin makes for another of her ‘Goldwater’ states- her 19 point deficit would be the biggest loss for a Republican in the state since the party lost by 24 points in 1964.

    The entire poll (Pdf) is here.

  • Barack Obama,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Virginia Poll Watch: Obama 48% Vs. Romney 42% – Huckabee, Gingrich and Palin All Do Worse

    According to the latest PPP poll.

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Romney – 33% Vs. 48%
    • Huckabee – 40% Vs. 41%
    • Gingrich – 29% Vs. 56%
    • Palin – 30% Vs. 63%

    Heads Up:

    • Obama – 48% Vs. Romney – 42%
    • Obama – 51% Vs. Huckabee – 43%
    • Obama – 51% Vs. Gingrich – 39%
    • Obama – 54% Vs. Palin – 35%

    President Obama leads Mitt Romney – the best faring GOP candidate by the same margin he beat Joh McCain in 2008.

    So, what does this poll mean in Virginia – a key battleground state and one which the Republican need to win the Presidency in 2012?

    Part of the reason Obama’s doing well in Virginia is that he has respectable, if not great, approval numbers there. 48% like the job he’s doing to 45% who disapprove. There are two keys to his solid standing. The first is that 87% of Democrats stand with him- that’s an indication he’s generally holding onto white voters within his party, even ones who might lean a little bit more to the conservative side of the ideological spectrum.

    The other key to his standing is that he’s coming close to breaking even with independents- 48% disapprove of him to 42% who approve. It may seem counter intuitive that negative numbers with those voters are a good sign for Obama, but after two straight election years where independents in Virginia leaned toward the GOP by a margin of about 30 points a Democratic politician getting just slightly negative reviews from them is progress.

    Even more important to Obama’s leads in the state than his own approval numbers though is how dimly voters there view all of the leading Republicans considering the Presidential race.

    Exit answer: The GOP better get some better candidates.

    The entire poll is here (Pdf).

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 North Carolina GOP Poll Watch: Huckabee 24% Romney 18% Gingrich 18% Palin 16%

    According to the latest PPP Poll:

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable Vs. Not Sure:

    • Mike Huckabee – 68% Vs. 19% Vs. 14%
    • Sarah Palin – 69% Vs. 24% Vs. 7%
    • Mitt Romney – 56% Vs. 24% Vs. 20%
    • Newt Gingrich: 55% Vs. 25% Vs. 20%

    Heads Up:

    • Mike Huckabee – 24%
    • Newt Gingrich – 18%
    • Mitt Romney – 18%
    • Sarah Palin – 16%
    • Ron Paul – 6%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 5%
    • Mitch Daniels – 2%

    The full poll is here (Pdf).

    North Carolina is a key battleground state for the GOP in the 2012 Presidential race. President Obama barely won this state in a good democratic year in 2008.

    I would like to have seen some head to head matc-ups with him but with the GOP field so fluid, the results would likely be skewed in any case. Maybe Obama Vs. a generic GOP candidate would give us an idea on how popular Obama is in North Carolina as of this time in the Presidential election cycle.

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney

    President 2012: Mike Huckabee Criticizes RomneyCare and Mitt Romney Responds



    Game on for the 2012 GOP Presidential nomination so it seems.

    Mike Huckabee is bashing the Massachusetts health care plan as a failed experiment — and saying that Mitt Romney should consider apologizing for steering its passage when he was governor.

    Although activists and party leaders have said Romney’s health care plan would be a major issue in his expected presidential run, Huckabee’s criticism is one of the most direct attacks that Romney has faced from a potential challenger.

    “It could be argued that if RomneyCare were a patient, the prognosis would be dismal,” Huckabee writes in his new book, A Simple Government.

    Huckabee, who said yesterday that he is “seriously contemplating” another run for president, also points to the similarities between Romney’s plan in Massachusetts and President Obama’s plan for the nation.

    “Ever since the debate over [Obama’s] program began, it’s been compared to RomneyCare, the failed statewide health-care program implemented by none other than my fellow GOP member Mitt Romney when he was governor of Massachusetts,” Huckabee writes, under a heading, “The States as Laboratories: When Experiments Fail” “Any critical assessment of this program will show that it failed…and yet the Obama administration decided to emulate it in its pursuit of a national health-care program.”

    He claims that while Romney’s attempt to control health care costs was “a noble goal indeed,” it has instead increased costs and diminished care.

    “The people of Massachusetts participated in an experiment that blew up in their faces, and now they have to stand in line at the burn clinic,” he writes. “If our goal in health-care reform is better care at lower cost, then we should take a lesson from RomneyCare, which shows that socialized medicine does not work. Period.”

    Mike Huckabee has a point about RomneyCare which I criticized years ago prior to its implementation. Others, including Sarah Palin and Mitch Daniels will likely weigh in on the issue as they prepare to run later in the Spring.

    RomneyCare is Mitt’s Achilles Heel and is a big government health care solution.

    Although I doubt Mike Huckabee will run for President, the animosity between him and Romney is very apparent. I do know the same dislike for Romney exists within the Rudy Giuliani folks from the 2008 campaign. Mitt is not a very likeable campaigner and will do what is necessary to defeat his opponents.

    Here is Mitt Romney’s response to Huckabee’s criticism:

    Romney has largely defended the plan in Massachusetts — and the goal of getting more residents covered — while still criticizing the federal plan passed by Democrats. His chief argument has been that states should experiment with different approaches to health care, but that Obama’s national plan infringes on states’ rights and should be repealed.

    In his updated paperback version of his book, No Apology, Romney also blamed the Democratic-controlled state legislature and Governor Deval Patrick for their implementation of the Massachusetts plan.

    “Mitt Romney is proud of what he accomplished for Massachusetts in getting everyone covered,” Romney’s spokesman, Eric Fehrnstrom, said in response to Huckabee’s criticism. “What’s important now is to return to the states the power to determine their own healthcare solutions by repealing Obamacare. A one-size-fits-all plan for the entire nation just doesn’t work.”

    A pretty weak sauce explanation and it will NOT hold up under scrutiny, especially when the television ads start to fly in South Carolina and Florida.

    Again from Huckabee as to what Mitt should do about RomneyCare:

    “I think it’s not a killer for him,” Huckabee told the Associated Press. “But he has to say either ‘I love it,’ ‘I hate it,’ or, ‘Hey I tried it, it didn’t work and that’s why I would say to you, let’s not do it nationally.’”

    “The position he should take is to say: ‘Look, the reason Obamacare won’t work is because we’ve tried it at the state level and we know it won’t work,'” Huckabee added.

    I don’t think Mitt Romney will agree.

    I, also, don’t think Mitt Romney will come close to winning the GOP Presidential nomination next year.

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012: Mike Huckabee Probably Won’t Run for President in 2012

    Former Arkansas governor and potential Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee discusses the factors he’s weighing before deciding to throw his hat in the ring for the 2012 election.

    As I have said before Mike Huckabee will NOT be a candidate for President in 2012. But, this time it is the Christian Science Monitor saying it.

    Huckabee was making the case for waiting as long as possible before quitting his day job to launch a campaign. He says he doesn’t want to walk away any sooner than he has to, because he doesn’t have much savings.

    “In order to run for president the last time, I cashed in my life insurance, my annuities,” he said. “You know, I pretty much went through everything that I ever had as an asset that I thought I might one day live on. One thing I committed to myself, my wife, and to God was that if I do this, I’m going to hopefully be in a position where I’m not so completely destitute at the end of it that I have no idea what to do if I get sick, or if I retire, or if I’m retired earlier, have a disability.”

    This is a man who was not born rich (like, say, Mr. Romney) and may feel he’s earned a few luxuries in life. Huckabee was invited to be a speaker on a Christian cruise around Alaska from June 5 to 12, and so he and his wife are going. That’s right around when he might be announcing for president – so does that mean he’s really leaning against running? Who knows.

    In other interviews this week, Huckabee appeared to psych himself out of running, only to change his tune the next day. On Monday, he told George Stephanopoulos of ABC News that Obama will be “tough to beat.” He continued: “This race is going to be like climbing a ladder pointing toward you, because Barack Obama is going to start this race with a billion dollars.”

    There’s the money thing again.

    But on Tuesday, Huckabee told Sean Hannity on Fox that he thinks Obama “can be beat.” Still, he added, “it’s the process of getting to that nomination that’s tough.”

    Ultimately, it may be a question of having the fire in the belly. Does Huckabee have it? Hard to tell. And if it’s hard to tell, doesn’t that point to “no”? After all, we’re not hearing the other nonindependently wealthy candidates ruminate about possibly draining their assets to run. They’re just out there getting ready for a campaign.

    Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney have personal wealth and/or a group of die hard followers that will fund a GOP primary campaign. They would bury Huckabee after the Iowa Caucuses.

    Mike is smart. He will stay on Fox News, build his house in Florida and go on those Christian cruises.

    A much better life anyway.