-
President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Mike Huckabee Maintains Strength Across Issue-Based Voter Segments
According to the latest Gallup Poll.As was the case in February, Republicans’ choice of most important political issue is related to their support for potential Republican presidential candidates.
Mike Huckabee, who is the overall leader among Republicans for the 2012 nomination at this point, leads or ties for the lead among three of the four issue-based GOP groups. He slightly lags Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin among national security- and foreign policy-focused Republicans.
Romney, second overall in GOP 2012 preferences, ties for or is in first place among two out of the four groups, and is in second place among another group.
And, what are the issues for Republicans?
It’s government spending/debt and the economy – not a shocker.Republicans continue to say government spending and power is the issue of greatest political importance to them (38%), followed closely by business and the economy (32%). Social and moral issues and foreign policy each have constituencies, but are far less important within the party. Republicans’ ratings of these priorities are not substantially changed from a month ago. The lack of change in the perceived importance of foreign affairs is notable given the recent high-profile U.S. military involvement in Libya.
Maybe Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels has a point about a “truce” on the social issues, since it does not appear to be a mighty concern for Republican voters? Of course, neither does national security and Libya.
Americans are concerned about their livelihood, their taxes and the fact they know many who are unemployed or under employed.
So, what does this poll mean – the bottom line?
As was the case in mid-February, the two biggest issues for Republican voters nationwide are government power and spending, and the economy — in that order. The rank-order of these issue segments appears to be generally stable, with only minor shifts since last month’s update.
Republican front-runner Huckabee maintains his relative position of strength across all four issue groups. He dominates among social issues voters and leads or ties other potential candidates in the two biggest Republican issue groups — those focused on government spending and power, and those focused on the economy.
Romney maintains a first- or second-place position among all segments except social issues voters. Palin appears to have a relative weakness among the largest segment of Republicans — those who are focused on the government.
Bachmann, who has the second-highest Positive Intensity Score of any potential Republican candidate at this point, does slightly better among that small group of Republicans most focused on foreign affairs. Tim Pawlenty, in the news last week after he established a presidential exploratory committee, does not do exceptionally well among any of the four issue groups. Haley Barbour, who is also reportedly giving serious consideration to a run for the GOP nomination, does best among Republicans focused on business and the economy.
-
President 2012 Michigan Poll Watch: President Obama Down But Certainly Not Out
According to the latest PPP poll:
Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:- Barack Obama 47% Vs 45%
Favorabile Vs. Unfavorable
- Mitt Romney – 37% Vs. 45%
- Mike Huckabee – 36% Vs. 45%
- Newt Gingrich – 27% Vs. 57%
- Sarah Palin – 31% Vs. 61%
- Scott Walker – 22% Vs. 37%
Head to Head:
- Obama – 48% Vs Romney – 41%
- Obama – 50% vs. Huckabee – 41%
- Obama – 53% Vs. Gingrich – 37%
- Obama – 55% Vs. Palin – 35%
President Obama won Michigan in 2008 with a 16 point margin. He is not leading by that amount this time but GOP candidates are underperforming.
Obama could be vulnerable in Michigan for sure. But consider this- despite that weak 78% approval with Democrats, he gets 85-90% of the Democratic vote against each of these five Republicans. There are enough Democrats who don’t like Obama that a Republican could get the support necessary across party lines to win the state- it’s just far from clear that any of these Republicans could get the support necessary across party lines to win the state. Obama may not win the state by as much as last time but for now Michigan’s looking like a second tier swing state.
Agreed. Republicans always hope for a pick-up in Michigan. But, unless the GOP nominates someone other than the four in this poll, they will lose again.
-
Michele Bachmann, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin
President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Mike Huckabee Has a Slight Edge.. But..
According to the latest Gallup poll.Mike Huckabee tops a large list of potential GOP presidential candidates in current support for the party’s 2012 nomination, with 19% of Republicans saying they are most likely to back him. This gives Huckabee a slight edge over Mitt Romney (15%). Sarah Palin is now at 12% after receiving 16% support in three prior Gallup polls. Newt Gingrich is the only other potential candidate who registers double-digit support. Sixteen percent of Republicans currently have no preference.
The March 18-22 poll of more than 1,000 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was conducted as the field of candidates has yet to emerge. Since Gallup’s February measurement of nomination preferences, Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty have taken formal steps toward announcing their candidacies but have stopped short of doing so, and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann is reportedly going to follow suit by the summer.
There continues to be speculation about the leading candidates’ plans. Most political experts believe Romney will eventually enter the race, but questions remain about whether Huckabee and Palin will want to abandon their lucrative media careers to pursue the presidency.
But, if Huckabee decides not run – very likely in my opinion, then it is between Romney and Palin.
And, if Huckabee runs and Sarah Palin does not, then, Huck becomes the front-runner:
So, what does all of this mean?There continues to be no front-runner for the GOP Presidential nomination and various scenarios will play out should either Mike Huckabee or Sarah Palin decide to run or not.
I think the fact that Michele Bachman is gearing up for a possible run and that Dick Armey of the Tea Party organization, FreedomWorks, has said he could endorse Mitch Daniels may give an indication that there may soon be a different set of scenarios and candidates.
-
President 2012 North Carolina Poll Watch: President Obama Competitive With GOP?
Perhaps so according to the latest PPP poll.
Job Approval Vs. Disapporoval:
- President Barack Obama – 48% Vs. 46%
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Mike Huckabee – 42% Vs 39%
- Mitt Romney – 32% Vs. 41%
- Newt Gingrich – 29% Vs. 48%
- Sarah Palin – 37% Vs 57%
Head to Head:
- Obama 45% Vs. Huckabee 45%
- Obama 44% Vs. Romney 42%
- Obama 47% Vs. Gingrich 42%
- Obama 51% Vs. Palin 40%
North Carolina is a “must have” for the Republican nominee in the race for 2012. It should be a state where the GOP can make Electoral college vote gains.
The fact that Obama’s even money or better to win North Carolina again while Democrats appear to be in dire shape in the Gubernatorial race speaks to how much things are changing in the state’s politics. The last time the state went Democratic for President and Republican for Governor was 1896. The only times it elected Republican Governors in the 20th century it simultaneously voted for Republican Presidential candidates by margins of 40 points (in 1972), 24 points (in 1984), and 16 points (in 1988). But it looks entirely possible that the state will elect a GOP Governor next year without winning the Presidential contest at all, much less winning it in the sort of landslide that has previously allowed the party’s Gubernatorial candidates to come along for the ride
Hiowever, the GOP field is weak against the incumbent President. Either the GOP steps up their game with a new generation candidate or Obama will again win North Carolina and the Presidency.
-
President 2012 Ohio Poll Watch: Obama 46% Vs. Romney 40% – Obama 52% Vs. Palin 36%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Obama Job approval:- 47% Approve, 46% Disapprove
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable
- Mitt Romney – 33% Vs. 43% (-10)
- Sarah Palin – 31% Vs. 59% (-28)
- Mick Huckabee – 36% Vs. 42% (-6)
- Newt Gingrich – 24% Vs. 56% (-32)
Head to Head with the President:
- Obama 50% Vs. Gingrich 38%
- Obama 48% Vs. Huckabee 41%
- Obama 52% Vs. Palin 36%
- Obama 46% Vs. Romney 40%
In the key battleground state of Ohio, President Obama is either leading his GOP opponent by 6 or 16 points. It is becoming clear in poll after poll that if the GOP wants to field a competitive candidate then they better look beyond these four.
I would recommend either Mitch Daniels or Chris Christie and they better gear up quickly.
-
President 2012 MO GOP Poll Watch: Huckabee 29% Gingrich 19% Palin 14% Romney 13%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:- Mike Huckabee – 73% Vs. 12%
- Newt Gingrich – 53% Vs. 24%
- Sarah Palin – 63% Vs. 27%
- Mitt Romney – 47% Vs. 32%
Head to Head:
- Mike Huckabee – 29%
- Newt Gingrich – 19%
- Sarah Palin – 14%
- Mitt Romney – 13%
So, what does it all mean?
- Mike Huckabee continues to perform well and has been leading most of the polls lately. But, will Huck run?
- Sarah Palin again is plummeting downward in the polls, even with GOP voters
- Mitt Romney is the “Biggest Loser” here and it is questionable whether he can win the nomination unless he improves.
One thing these numbers do reinforce is the recent ABC/Washington Post poll that showed Palin’s numbers plummeting even with Republican voters. When we polled Missouri in December Palin was at 25%, so her 14% now represents an 11 point drop in her standing over the last three months. Also while the other GOP frontrunners have seen modest drops in their net favorability since our previous Missouri Republican poll- 5 points for Romney, 3 for Gingrich, and 2 for Huckabee- Palin has seen a much more dramatic 16 point decline from +52 in December at 72/20 to now +36 at 63/27. There’s no doubt that the already limited interest in a Presidential bid from her that Republican voters had is declining even further.
The other thing that’s striking in these numbers is how weak Romney is. In 2008 Huckabee got 32% here and his current 29% standing doesn’t represent much difference. But Romney pulled 29% here last time around and his 13% now means he’s lost more than half of his support. His albatross here, as we’re seeing in more and more of our GOP polling, is voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative.’ They’re the largest segment of the Republican electorate in Missouri at 41%, and only 10% of them want Romney as their candidate next year. -
President 2012 Poll Watch: Voters Tepid on Obama But Favor Him Over GOP Field
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Barack Obama’s looking somewhat weak in our national polling. The good news for him is that his prospective Republican opponents look even weaker, and that’s allowing him to maintain healthy leads in head to head match ups against each of them looking toward next year.
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Obama – 47% Vs. 47%
- Huckabee – 35% Vs. 42%
- Romney – 32% Vs. 44%
- Palin – 35% Vs. 57%
- Gingrich – 26% Vs. 57%
Head to Head:
- Obama – 48% Vs. Huckabee – 43%
- Obama – 47% vs. Romney – 42%
- Obama – 50% Vs. Gingrich – 39%
- Obama – 53% Vs. Palin – 38%
- Obama – 47% Vs. Pawlenty – 33%
With Romney and Huckabee (do NO harm candidates) the GOP could possibly do better than McCain-Palin in 2008 but would likely lose. Gingrich, Palin and Pawlenty are really non-starters.
So, the GOP has a choice – develop new candidates like Chris Christie and Mitch Daniels or concentrate on winning the Senate and maintaining their majority in the House.
The entire poll is here (PDF). -
President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Sarah Palin’s Favorability Numbers Fall Among the GOP
Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin gestures as she speaks during the LIA (Long Island Association) Annual Meeting & Luncheon at the Crest Hollow Country Club in Woodbury, New York February 17, 2011
According ti the latest ABC/Washington Post Poll (PDF).Favorable impressions of Sarah Palin have dropped to a new low in her own party, with negative views of the former Alaska governor substantially exceeding those of other potential Republican presidential candidates, the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll finds.
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Mike Huckabee – 61% Vs. 18%
- Mitt Romney – 60% Vs. 21%
- Sarah Palin – 58% Vs. 37%
- Newt Gingrich – 55% Vs. 26%
It is the unfavorability rating that is sinking Sarah Palin and her trajectory is downward.
Palin also is following a different trajectory. She peaked at a remarkable 88 percent favorable among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (known collectively as “leaned Republicans”) after stepping onto the national stage as John McCain’s vice-presidential running mate in September 2008. That’s declined since then to today’s level, 30 points lower.
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone March 10-13, 2011, among a random national sample of 1,005 adults, including landline and cell-phone-only respondents. The results among the sample’s 378 leaned Republicans have a 6-point error margin. -
President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Newt Gingrich Ties Mitt Romney Without Huckabee and Palin in the Race
When asked who they want to take on President Obama next year, Republican primary voters nationwide could not be less clear—the usual top four are in a statistical tie, each with less than 20% of the vote and just as many undecided. Mike Huckabee leads with 18%, followed by Mitt Romney’s 17%, Sarah Palin’s 16%, Newt Gingrich’s 14%, Ron Paul’s 9%, Tim Pawlenty’s 5%, Mitch Daniels’ 4%, and Haley Barbour’s 1%. 15% are undecided or favor someone unnamed. Last month, the candidate order was the same, and the proportions a similar 20-17-15-12-8-4-4.
But the longer these candidates hesitate to jump into the race, the more it appears a few of them may not run at all. Without Huckabee in the field, Romney edges Palin and
Gingrich, 20-19-18, with Paul at 12% and the others further back. In the absence of Palin, Huckabee tops Gingrich and Romney, 22-20-18. With neither Palin nor Huckabee making a bid, Gingrich and Romney tie at 24%, with Paul at 12%. Palin’s voters go more heavily to Gingrich than to Romney.An interesting poll, for what it is worth, being that it is in the early GOP primary states where candidates will win or lose the nomination – not national polls.
The only question is who will NOT run first?
-
President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Mike Huckabee Leading the GOP Field With Positive Intensity
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee leads the field of possible GOP presidential candidates in “positive intensity” among Republicans nationwide with a score of +25 among Republicans who are familiar with him, followed by Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota with a score of +20. Huckabee is recognized by 87% of Republicans, compared with Bachmann’s 52%. A number of other possible Republican presidential candidates trail these two in Positive Intensity Scores, including Sarah Palin, who is the best known of the group.
Here are the results:
As with a number of Presidential polls released within the past month, these results verify that there is NO front runner in the GOP Presidential field.
Michelle Bachmann is a bit of a surprise to me but is her intensity rating a spill-over from a Sarah Palin decline in the polls? Hard to say. But, if anything is clear, Mike Huckabee might be reconsidering whether he wants to give up that Saturday night Fox News gig.
And, poor Mitt Romney is hoping for a miracle.
But, who knows, with the GOP primary voters all split apart, who will emerge with sufficient numbers of delegates? I can see a scenario where there is a “brokered” convention, where it is uncertain as to who the GOP nominee will be.
Here are the Republican candidate images among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents:
Here is a chart:
One last chart, Republican candidate images with a combination of recognition and favorability questions:
Again, what does this all mean?- No front runner in the GOP Presidential field.
- Rep. Michelle Bachmann has emerged with intense feelings among the GOP faithful but with h less recognition
- Mike Huckabee continues to lead the field, despite the likelyhood of him running is more remote.
If I were Huckabee this morning, I would be meeting with advisers. If I were Mitt Romney, I would be planning for a convention-based campaign after primary votes are scattered all over different candidates.
At this stage of the race for 2012, the GOP might be looking at a long primary season.
