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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Issues Separate Republican Candidates
This is an interesting poll from Gallup in how Republican Presidential contenders are perceived by the issues of the day.Although Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Sarah Palin lead the field of potential Republican presidential candidates among all Republicans nationwide, there are significant differences in candidate preferences when Republicans are divided by the issue they think is most important. Those focused on government spending and power are most likely to favor Huckabee or Romney, while those focused on the economy favor Romney or Palin. Republicans who say social and moral values are most important favor Huckabee or Palin.
An intuitive result with the more socially conservative Huckabee (Southern Baptist Minister) and Tea Party favorite Palin doing well with the social cons and Romney (the Mormon) not so much. Here is the summary for each:
Huckabee:
wins among the social and moral values issues segment, as might be expected given his background as a Southern Baptist minister. He essentially ties Romney among the group most interested in government spending and power and ties Palin among the national security and foreign policy group, but does less well among those interested in business and the economy. This suggests Huckabee’s possible weakness as a potential presidential candidate is views of his ability to deal with economic issues.
Huckabee’s stance on the “Fair Tax” and his propensity for Arkansas tax increases while Governor are weaknesses.
Romney:
wins among those focused on business and the economy, as befits his former experience as a businessman with a Master of Business Administration degree from Harvard. He ties Huckabee among those interested in government spending and power, but does less well among those focused on national security and particularly so among those focused on social issues. The latter positioning could reflect his switching positions on values issues such as abortion prior to his 2008 run for president.
Being am accomplished businessman plays to his strength while flip-flopping on social issues and his Mormonism hurt him.
Palin:does slightly better among those focused on national security and foreign policy than on values issues and business and the economy. She performs much less well among those focused on government spending and power, despite being one of the leading public supporters of the Tea Party movement.
This must be an outlier since Sarah is the least experienced in foreign policy and has been a vocal advocate for the Tea Party, smaller government folks.
Gingrich:
does better among Republicans focused on government spending and power, but this is the only set of issues on which his support among Republican segments is in double digits.
Poor Newt is not doing well in these pre-debate match-ups but look for him to perform better once the field is solidified.
What are the most important issues for Republicans as the Presidential race begins?
And, differences by demographic category:
Maybe Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels is right about the “truce” on social issues since the others seem to trump them.
There are many ways to segment the Republican voting population as next year’s presidential primaries and caucuses draw closer. One of these is “issues voting groups” — divisions based on the issues voters consider most important in their political thinking. Given four issue choices, Republicans at this point are most focused on two: the role of government and the economy. Fewer Republicans choose national security and moral issues at this point in the 2012 election cycle, even though international and moral issues have often defined the GOP’s political platforms in previous years.
These issue segments do not totally determine candidate preferences at this point, but some strengths and weaknesses of the leading candidates among Republicans in each of these groups do emerge. Huckabee has his greatest strength among those focused on social and moral issues, and is weaker among business- and economy-focused voters. Romney does relatively well among each issue group except those most focused on moral issues. Palin is strongest among foreign policy-focused voters and is weaker among those interested in government power and spending. Gingrich is modestly stronger among Republicans interested in government power.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Huckabee 18% Vs Palin 16% Vs. Romney 16%
According to the latest Gallup Poll.
Republicans and Republican-leaning independents have no clear favorite for the party’s 2012 presidential nominee at this point, with Mike Huckabee (18%), Mitt Romney (16%), and Sarah Palin (16%) in a statistical tie for the lead. They are the only candidates in the crowded field of potential candidates who register double-digit support. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, and former Utah Gov. and current Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman were included for the first time and received 4% and 1%, respectively.
Here is the list:
National polls mean little at this point in time. Also, it is doubtful that Mike Huckabee will run since he has given every indication that he will not.Also, it is apparent that Sarah Palin continues to position herself for a run with Facebook postings on foreign policy and a trip to India next month to deliver a speech about her vision for America. Unfortunately for Sarah is that her polling against President Obama head to head is the worst in the field – at least so far.
Here is a breakdown by GOP subgroup:
So, what does all of this mean?
There is NO front-runner for the GOP nomination.
I continue to maintain that should Sarah Palin decide to run, she will more than likely win the nomination. But Sarah will likely lose to President Obama in an overwhelming fashion in the Electoral College because of her unfavorables with independent voters. I, also, maintain that she will ultimately pass on the race when confronted with polls that show her a big loser – why damage her brand and political future.
Of course, if the economy does not improve and world events change, all bets are off and anyone may be able to beat the incumbent President, including Sarah Palin.
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President 2012 North Carolina Poll Watch: Mike Huckabee Leading President Obama 47% Vs. 46%
According to latest PPP Presidential Poll:
Head to Head:
- Obama – 46% Vs. Huckabee – 47% (49% Vs. 45%)
- Obama – 47% Vs. Romney – 44% (same)
- Obama – 48% Vs. Gingrich – 44% (50% Vs. 43%)
- Obama – 51% Vs. Palin – 41% (50% Vs. 41%)
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Obama – 47% Vs. 48% (49% Vs. 47%, month ago)
- Huckabee – 43% Vs. 34%
- Romney – 37% Vs. 39%
- Gingrich – 30% Vs. 48%
- Palin 37% Vs. 57%
Not a good poll for President Obama who needs a win in North Carolina as it is one of the key battleground states for the 2012 Presidential race.
Compared to a month ago Obama’s dropped 5 points against Huckabee, who he led 49-45 last time and 2 points against Gingrich who he led 50-44 last time. His numbers against Romney remain unchanged and he’s actually gained a point on Palin.
The main reason for his diminished standing when matched against Huckabee is that Obama now trails him by 5 points with independents, where a month ago the President actually held an 11 point advantage. That’s consistent with a bit of downward turn in Obama’s numbers with independents nationally, which had seen a spike in January in the wake of the Tucson shooting and the Republicans assuming control of Congress.
PPP surveyed 650 North Carolina voters from February 16th to 21st. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may
introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify. -
President 2012: Mike Huckabee for President?
Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee speaks during a corner stone dedication ceremony for a new Jewish settlement at Beit Orot between Mount Scopus and Mount of Olives in East Jerusalem
Probably not.Anyone who thinks presidential ambition is an incurable condition hasn’t spent much time lately with Mike Huckabee.
The man who came in second in the 2008 GOP primary isn’t exactly ruling out another run in 2012. But he doesn’t sound all that eager to jump right back into the fray, either.
“I’m not one who thinks the future of the world is depending on whether I run for president,” the former Arkansas governor said in an interview.
The truth is, there were many things about the presidential campaign grind that Huckabee didn’t much like the last time around.
Don’t look for him in the early presidential debates, which begin just over two months from now, for instance. He doesn’t have fond memories of standing on those crowded stages during the last campaign, fighting for airtime and answering question after question about Iraq.
“We just rehashed the same stuff, over and over. I was bored with it,” Huckabee said. “It was the same tripe, and I found it just incredibly disgusting, and ultimately meaningless.”
Nor was he particularly sorry to have skipped this year’s Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, a traditional stop for GOP presidential contenders, which was underway even as he was giving this interview. “It’s a showcase of just people coming out to get more exposure,” he said.
So instead of throwing red meat to the conservative faithful, Huckabee was tucking into a breakfast of eggs and butter-slathered pancakes at a trendy New York hotel overlooking Times Square. His much discussed diet – he famously lost more than 100 pounds after being diagnosed with diabetes in 2003 and wrote a book about eating right – is apparently on hiatus.
It is more than Huckabee gaining weight from a lack of exercise or a strict Presidential diet. It is about fundraising and Mike Huckabee’s lack thereof and his failure to do so.
Mitt Romney and/or Sarah Palin would bury him with $ millions in television ads. Everyone one of his missteps and foibles would be exploited during the GOP primaries. And, for that Huckabee would have to forego an easy paycheck with Fox News and the speaking circuit.
I don’t think so and neither does Huckabee.
Game over.
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President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama 47% Vs Huckabee 44% – Within the Margin of Error
From Pollster: Mike Huckabee Favorable RatingMike Huckabee continues to do the best against President Obama in the latest PPP Poll (Pdf).Obama has slipped a little in the last month, but still leads all of his potential opponents by at least three points. He tops Mike Huckabee, 47-44; Mitt Romney, 46-41; Newt Gingrich, 49-40; and Sarah Palin, 52-40. He also beats two offbeat dark horses: Ron Paul, 48-39, and Donald Trump, 48-34. The generic moderate Republican would win independents, 47-40, and the generic Republican nominee would essentially tie, 44-45, but the named candidates trail with these voters by between five and 24 points.
The summary:
- 47% Obama Vs. 44% Huckabee
- 52% Obama Vs. 40% Palin
- 49% Obama Vs. 40% Gingrich
- 46% Obama Vs. 41% Romney
- 48% Obama Vs. 41% Romney
- 48% Obama Vs. 39% Paul
- 48% Obama Vs. 34% Trump
So, what does this mean?
President Obama is vulnerable to a likeable, trustworthy candidate in Mike Huckabee (look at his favorability chart above) and the GOP is in trouble if they nominate anyone listed in the poll – a sort of no brainer.
But, is Huckabee likely to run?
Perhaps…..
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President 2012 Colorado GOP Poll Watch: Romney 19% Palin 16% Huckabee 16% Gingrich 12%
The latest PPP Poll is out and Mitt Romney is barely leading the field.
- Mitt Romney – 19%
- Sarah Palin – 16%
- Mike Huckabee – 16%
- Newt Gingrich – 12%
- Ron Paul – 9%
- Tim Pawlenty – 7%
- John Thune – 4%
- Mitch Daniels – 3%
Mitt Romney’s lead in Colorado adds to first place polls in Arizona, California and Nevada.
Romney manages leads, albeit narrow ones, with both conservative and moderate voters in Colorado. Among conservatives he gets 18% with Palin right behind at 17%, Huckabee at 15%, Gingrich at 13%, and Paul with a rare performance hitting double digits at 10%. With moderates Romney has 22% to Huckabee’s 20%, and 10% for Palin and Gingrich.
In some states where Romney leads he doesn’t have the highest favorability of the Republican candidates but is first anyway because he’s seen as more Presidential than some of the other folks who are better liked. But that’s not the case in Colorado- he’s first for the nomination choice and first in popularity. 60% of primary voters have a favorable opinion of him with Palin and Huckabee at 59% and Gingrich at 54% coming in further behind.
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President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama 48% Vs Romney 41%; Obama 56% Vs. Palin 35%
The latest Fox News Poll is out and President Obama is doing well against all GOP contenders (Pdf).
- 48% Obama Vs. 41% Romney (41% Vs. 40%, September 2010)
- 49% Obama Vs. 41% Huckabee (43% Vs. 40%)
- 56% Obama Vs. 35% Palin (48% Vs. 35%)
- 55% Obama Vs. 35% Gingrich (53% Vs. 29%, January 2010)
- 54% Obama Vs. 34% J. Bush (45% Vs 37%, September 2010)
The current crop of GOP Presidential hopefuls have been making no inroads into defeating President Obama. It may indeed be time for the Republican Party to look to the future and nominate some new and different candidates.
Fox News / Anderson Robbins Research (D) / Shaw & Company Research (R)
2/7-9/11; 911 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
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President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Looks Strong in Key Battleground States – Same Electoral Votes as 2008?
For now he does, but he is not up by much and there is a long way to go.In 2008 Barack Obama won nine states and one electoral vote giving Congressional district that had gone to George W. Bush in 2004. We’ve now polled every single one of those over the last three months except for Indiana, where we can’t do one because of restrictions on automated polling in the state. Across 36 horse race match ups against Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, Iowa, Nevada, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District Obama is 36 for 36. If he stood for reelection today against one of the current Republican front runners Obama would almost certainly win the same number of electoral votes he did in 2008, if not more.
I would say that New Hampshire will be in play as well, whereas New Mexico probably will not be.
So, what does the GOP need to do?
Probably field new and better candidates because with the exisiting worn out field of four (Romney, Huckabee, Gingrich, Palin) they will be beaten by Obama in 2012. Or, they can right off the Presidency and concentrate on U.S. Senate and Congressional races and wait until 2016.
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Mike Huckabee’s PAC Raising Funds to Defeat California Senator Dianne Feinstein?
This missive came into my e-mail box this afternoon. Now, Huck is not at CPAC and begins his book tour soon, so what is he doing here:California needs a conservative United States Senator. Democrat Senator Dianne Feinstein has been in Washington too long and it appears she’s stopped listening to California voters – after all, you didn’t want bailouts, you didn’t want the stimulus package and you sure didn’t want Obamacare. Thanks to elected officials like Senator Feinstein you got bailouts, you got the stimulus and you got Obamacare.
Senator Feinstein like all of the Democrats up for re-election in 2012 is a large reason our nation is going bankrupt. Sadly last week, when given a chance to begin to redeem poor legislative choices, Senator Feinstein voted AGAINST the repeal of Obamacare.
Huck PAC is preparing to help conservatives win the California Senate seat and defeat other vulnerable Democrat Senators across the nation. We are asking 100 California supporters to donate this week towards this goal. Will you make a donation of $5 or more to stop Senator Feinstein and the budget-busting Democrats in Washington?
I have sent this email to just 1,000 California voters across the state. I am counting on a response from you. If you would prefer to donate by mail, please send your check to Huck PAC at:
Huck PAC
Attn: Stop Senate Democrats Fund
PO Box 2008
Little Rock , AR 72203California and America would be better off with conservative Senators like Marco Rubio in office. Together, we worked sohard to take back the House – now you can help conservatives take back
the Senate. Please chip in today.Fighting for California,
Mike Huckabee
California’s Senior Senator Dianne Feinstein, unless she has failing health is a lock to win another Senate term in 2012. She will likely win by over fifteen points in a deep blue California.
So, why is Mike Huckabee fundraising for her defeat? Since the money goes to his PAC, which he controls, I assume he could use the money for whatever race he deems fit.
Or, is Huck, just getting some name ID out her in California for a possible 2012 Presidential run?
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President 2012 New Mexico Poll Watch: New Mexico SAFE for Obama
I don’t think you will see too much GOP Presidential campaigning in New Mexico this next year. The latest PPP Presidential poll is just out.
New Mexico was one of Barack Obama’s most surprising states in 2008- not that he won it, but that he won it by such a wide 15 point margin after George W. Bush had taken it in 2004. Obama remains popular in the state and if he had to stand for reelection today he’d take it by a similar amount to his previous victory.
Obama’s approval rating with New Mexicans is 55% with 40% of voters disapproving of him. Most noteworthy are his very strong numbers with independents, 60% of whom are happy with the job he’s doing to 32% who dissent.
Obama Vs. GOP Nominee:
- Obama – 53% Vs. Romney – 37%
- Obama – 55% Vs. Huckabee – 36%
- Obama – 56% Vs. Gingrich – 35%
- Obama – 62% Vs. Palin – 33%
GOP Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Huckabee – 34% Vs. 46%
- Romney – 33% Vs. 45%
- Gingrich – 25% Vs. 56%
- Palin – 31% Vs. 64%
The GOP had better hope for an Obama collapse or a miracle candidate to be competitive in New Mexico. With the large Hispanic population in the state which will deliver anywhere from a 35-52 point margin for Obama, the GOP will best ignore New Mexico in 2012.