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President 2012: South Carolina Moves GOP Primary Election to January 21
Well, Florida decided on January 31, 2012 for their Presidential Primary election in violation of Republican National Committee rules and hence moves South Carolina.
South Carolina’s Republican presidential primary will be held on Jan. 21 of next year, two GOP sources tell CNN.
South Carolina Republican Party Chairman Chad Connelly will formally announce the date later this morning.
The move is designed to put space between South Carolina and Florida, which bucked national Republican Party rules last week and decided to hold their primary on Jan. 31.
The updated calendar is likely to push the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary even earlier into January as they seek to protect their role as the two leadoff contests in the presidential nominating process.
Nevada has already decided to move its GOP primary caucuses from February 18 to January. No specific date has been selected for Nevada. But, Nevada usually goes on the Saturday after New Hampshire and Iowa primary elections and before South Carolina.
Get ready for an early primary season for the Republican Presidential field. There will be Christmas/New Year’s campaigning in New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina.
Who wins in this development?
Mitt Romney and Rick Perry.
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Michael Lewis: California and Bust
Photograph Courtesy of Art Streiber
Read all of Michael Lewis’ excellent piece on California government and former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.A ompelling book called California Crackup describes this problem more generally. It was written by a pair of journalists and nonpartisan think-tank scholars, Joe Mathews and Mark Paul, and they explain, among other things, why Arnold Schwarzenegger’s experience as governor was going to be unlike any other experience in his career: he was never going to win. California had organized itself, not accidentally, into highly partisan legislative districts. It elected highly partisan people to office and then required these people to reach a two-thirds majority to enact any new tax or meddle with big spending decisions. On the off chance that they found some common ground, it could be pulled out from under them by voters through the initiative process. Throw in term limits—no elected official now serves in California government long enough to fully understand it—and you have a recipe for generating maximum contempt for elected officials. Politicians are elected to get things done and are prevented by the system from doing it, leading the people to grow even more disgusted with them. “The vicious cycle of contempt,” as Mark Paul calls it. California state government was designed mainly to maximize the likelihood that voters will continue to despise the people they elect.
But when you look below the surface, he adds, the system is actually very good at giving Californians what they want. “What all the polls show,” says Paul, “is that people want services and not to pay for them. And that’s exactly what they have now got.” As much as they claimed to despise their government, the citizens of California shared its defining trait: a need for debt. The average Californian, in 2011, had debts of $78,000 against an income of $43,000. The behavior was unsustainable, but, in its way, for the people, it works brilliantly. For their leaders, even in the short term, it works less well. They ride into office on great false hopes and quickly discover they can do nothing to justify those hopes.
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President 2012 Ohio Poll Watch: Obama 44% Vs. Romney 42% or Obama 44% Vs. Perry 41%
The 2008 Presidential Electoral College ResultsAccording to the latest Quinnipiac University Poll.In Ohio, voters disapprove of the job Obama is doing as president, 53 percent to 42 percent. Independents give the president a lower score: 56 percent disapprove of his job performance while 38 percent approve. He receives majority support from his base (77 percent approve) but 19 percent of Democrats give him a poor job-performance grade. Men disapprove by 58 percent to 39 percent while the disapproval rate among women is much narrower, 49 percent to 45 percent.
By a 51 percent to 43 percent margin, Ohio voters say the president does not deserve to be re-elected. Again, he struggles among independents: 53 percent don’t want to give him a second term while 37 percent do.
Obama maintains a slim edge over his top two challengers in Ohio, a state he won in 2008 by five points. The president leads Romney, 44 percent to 42 percent, and tops Perry, 44 percent to 41 percent. Obama edges Perry among independents, 38 percent to 35 percent. But that group is split between Obama and Romney, each of whom takes 39 percent.
In this key battleground state, that the GOP Presidential nominee needs to win in the Electoral College, the Republicans are licking their chops for a pick up. This probably reflects more displeasure with President Obama and his policies than a desire for the Republican candidates.
Nevertheless, the President is upside in the approval ratings and by a 51% Vs. 43% margin, voters are saying he does not deserve re-election.
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Norway Prosecutor Files Terrorism Charges Against Three in Attack on Danish Newspaper Jyllands-Posten and Mohammed Cartoonist Kurt Westergaard
Offices of the Jyllands-Posten Newspaper which published the Mohammed CartoonsRemember the “Mumbai-Style” terror attack in late December 2010. Now, there is more.
Mikael Davud, David Jakobsen and Shawan Sadek Saeed Bujak are charged with planning to carry out an assault using explosives on Danish paper Jyllandsposten. The charges also say they planned to shoot Danish cartoonist Kurt Westergaard, author of the controversial Prophet Mohammed caricatures.
All the men were arrested last year in Oslo and Germany following a Police Security Service (PST) raid. Authorities suspected they had planned to bomb the Chinese Embassy, with one of the three trying to obtain Hydrogen Peroxide from a pharmacy. This failed due to PST intervention.
It is also believed the plotters are connected to al-Qaida, and the case has ties to the United States.
The three men arrived in Norway between 1999 and 2002. Mr Davud and Bujak remain in custody while Mr Jakobsen, who served as an informant for the PST, has been released.
None of the suspects admit their guilt, but face up to 12 years in prison if convicted.
The three men risk prison sentences of up to 12 years, Evanger said.
Investigators believe the plot was linked to the same al-Qaeda planners behind 2009 schemes to blow up New York’s subway and a British shopping mall.
An Associated Press investigation last year showed all three plots were thwarted after suspected operatives exchanged emails – sometimes poorly coded – in and out of Pakistan.
Davud, a 40-year-old ethnic Uighur from China, was charged with receiving explosives training at an al-Qaeda training camp in Pakistan and agreeing to blow up one of several offices of Jyllands-Posten in Denmark.
Bujak and Jakobsen are accused of joining the plot in 2009 and helping acquire bomb-making chemicals.
Police say they had the men under surveillance and even replaced a vital ingredient with a harmless liquid to ensure they would not succeed in building a bomb.
Davud and Bujak, a 38-year-old Iraqi Kurd, were also charged with plotting to shoot Westergaard.
Westergaard drew the most controversial of the 12 cartoons, featuring Mohammed with a lit fuse in his turban. He was the victim of a murder attempt last year and has received several death threats.
Davud and Bujak have been held in custody since their arrest and have both admitted they were planning an attack, although their versions have differed on who their target was, the first saying it was the Chinese embassy in Oslo and the second claiming it was Jyllands-Posten.
Jakobsen has denied any responsibility and is currently a free man. He became a police informant in November 2009 but still faced charges for his involvement in the plot before then.
All three suspects deny any links to al-Qaeda.
In Norway, plotting a terrorist act alone is not a crime. If at least two people are involved they can be convicted of conspiracy.
The trial is set to begin on October 31.
Here are the Mohammed cartoons:
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Shocker: Obama and Buffett Are Wrong on Tax Rates Paid By Millionaires
The Wall Street Journal makes short work of Warren Buffett (“Buffett Rule”) and President Obama’s arguments that millionaires are not paying their “fair share”So here we are back at the same old political stand, though even Mr. Obama concedes that today those he routinely calls “millionaires and billionaires” pay at least some tax. The President’s complaint, echoing billionaire Warren Buffett, is that too many billionaires pay a lower rate than regular salary earners. So even as he endorsed tax reform in general yesterday, Mr. Obama insisted that one of his reform “principles” is that people who make more than $1 million must pay a higher tax rate than middle-class earners.
There’s one small problem: The entire Buffett Rule premise is false, as the nearby table shows. In 2008, the last year for which such data are available, the IRS reports that those who made more than $1 million in adjusted gross income paid an average income tax rate of 23.3%.
That’s slightly lower than the 24.1% rate paid by those making between $500,000 and $1 million, probably because the richest are like Mr. Buffett and earn more from capital gains and dividends. The rate for a relative handful of the rich—400 people—fell to 18%, the modern equivalent of Barr’s Gang of 21. But nearly all millionaires still paid a rate that is more than twice the 8.9% average rate paid by those earning between $50,000 and $100,000, and more than three times the 7.2% average rate paid by those earning less than $50,000. The larger point is that the claim that CEOs are routinely paying lower tax rates than their secretaries is Omaha hokum.
If Mr. Obama really wants all of these people to pay even more in taxes, there are only two ways to do so. One is to raise tax rates on capital gains, dividends and other investment income that is taxed at 15% and represents a great deal of income for the wealthy. This is probably Mr. Buffett’s tax secret, though to our knowledge he hasn’t released his returns to the public.
Read all of the piece.
Most pundits acknowledge that President Obama’s speech yesterday was more for his re-election than plausible policy that can actually be signed into law.
Obama sold his “Hope and Change” in 2008, but he and Warren Buffett will have a harder time selling their class warfare.
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California Congressional Districts NOT All Bad for Republican Party
Flap’s old Congressional District CA-24 and the new one CA-26
I have to agree with Republican political operative and consultant Rob Stutzman.What will it take to win these competitive seats? We will have to do the hard work of becoming a more competitive party. We have to expand our message to Latinos and field candidates who can compete in marginal districts. These new maps will finally force to the surface Republican candidates in California who can compete and win in swing districts.
Since 1992, Republican voter registration has fallen by 8 percent. Recently released Field Poll data make the point even clearer. At the same time, our party message is not resonating with younger voters as the GOP is a graying electorate. More than half of current California Republican voters are over the age of 50, up from 40 percent in 1992.
Republican registration in the Latino community has nearly stagnated since 1992, growing only one percent at a time when the state’s Hispanic voters doubled during that time from 10 percent to 22 percent.
In a state that has dipped to only 31 percent GOP registration, providing more opportunities to be competitive is a positive development. We have been slowly withering to a darker shade of blue here, but shedding the gerrymander of the past decade gives us the chance to adapt and learn to win again.
The California Congressional redistricting is probably as fair as you are going to achieve vis a vis population and federal voting rights demographics.
I understand that, although a referendum has been approved for signature circulation to overturn the California Citizen Redistricting Commission’s Congressional District plan that no actual signatures are being solicited.
Yes, there will be few long time GOP Congressmen who will be forced either into retirement or to run in districts where there will actually be a contested race.
Isn’t that why we have elections?
California Republicans will be far better to accept the California Citizen Redistricting Commission’s and use any money raised for the referendum in party building activities.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Rick Perry’s Ponzi Scheme Comment on Social Security a Non-Issue?
Yes, according to the latest Gallup Poll.Texas Gov. and presidential candidate Rick Perry’s comments on Social Security, which include calling it a “Ponzi scheme,” appear to be a non-issue for most Republicans. However, they could cost him support with independents should he ultimately win the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. As many Republicans say they are more likely to vote for Perry for president because of his views on Social Security as say they are less likely — 19% each. Among independents, 12% are more likely to vote for him and 32% less likely.
These results are from a Sept. 13-14 USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted less than a week after Perry made his comments about Social Security during the Sept. 9 Republican presidential debate — repeating something that appears in his book “Fed Up,” published last year. Perry’s chief rival for the Republican presidential nomination, Mitt Romney, has subsequently jumped on the issue as a way to paint Perry as out of touch with mainstream views and unelectable.
In fact, Perry’s statements on Social Security are more likely to harm his campaign indirectly by weakening his perceived viability than they are to turn off Republicans who disagree with his views. In contrast to the 19% of Republicans who say they would personally be less likely to support Perry over his Social Security views, 37% believe those views would hurt his chances of being elected president if he were the GOP nominee. Just 17% say they will help his chances.
I think most American voters understand how current social security recipients are not drawing upon funds that they paid into the system. They realize it is the young folks who are having money withdrawn form their pay checks that is funding their retirement.
But……social security has been a successful program and Texas Governor Rick Perry may do OK with Republicans in a primary election but will struggle in a general election unless he clarifies his remarks.
President Obama and his media meisters will try to scare senior citizens (who vote in great numbers) into thinking that Perry will end Social Security. Perry and the Republicans cannot allow this to happen.
Independents tilt even more strongly toward perceiving the issue hurts rather than helps Perry’s electability, 40% vs. 11%.
The chart:
The majority of Republicans DO want to preserve Social Security.The chart:
So, what does this all mean?Rick Perry will “walk back” his comments on social security and develop a Paul Ryan type plan to “save” the system. If Perry does not, he will be attacked unmercifully by Mitt Romney in Florida where there are many social security recipients who will vote in the early GOP primary election. Note this poll on Republicans is early without the benefit of a negative Romney media campaign.
Perry will not have to worry about the Democrats spinning his statements on Social Security because he will not be the GOP nominee.
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President 2012: Pennsylvania Considering Change of Electoral College Vote Process
This change or proposed change in how Electoral College votes are determined is not new and was attempted via an initiative in California in 2008. The California initiative failed to make the ballot.
A new proposal is pushing the often-forgotten Electoral College into the spotlight as Pennsylvania officials ponder the state’s role in next year’s presidential race.
Senate Majority Leader Dominic Pileggi is trying to gather support to change the state’s “winner-takes-all” approach for awarding electoral votes. Instead, he’s suggesting that Pennsylvania dole them out based on which candidate wins each of the 18 congressional districts, with the final two going to the contender with the most votes statewide.
So far, the idea has received support from colleagues of the Delaware County Republican in the state House and from Republican Gov. Tom Corbett. But Democrats, who have carried the state in presidential contests since 1992, said the shift would erode Pennsylvania’s clout.
Only two states — Nebraska and Maine — divide their electoral votes instead of giving the whole bloc to the candidate that wins the state’s popular vote. Even for those two states, the piecemeal approach has been a rarity, with Nebraska historically dividing its five votes in the 2008 election, when one went to President Barack Obama.
Most states cling to the winner take all nature of determining where their Electoral College votes go. Maybe changing the system apportioning by Congressional District is MORE fair, but it definitely removes the clout afforded Democrats in urban areas where they rack up large majority votes (particularly in Philadelphia where there is a large African-American population who vote overwhelmingly Democratic).
It changes the game and that is what politics is all about. And, it is within the discretion of the laws of Pennsylvania.
Dave Weigel seems to think this is screwing the Democrats.
Of course, it is.
Elections have consequences, remember?
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Politician Wants to Know Why Kurt Westergaard Was Kicked Out of Norway Rather Than Afforded Police Protection
Danish Muhammad Cartoonist Kurt Westergaard
A very good question. You remember the story from yesterday, which I carried here.Labour (Ap) MP Arild Stokkan-Grande, wants police to clarify why they chose to send the cartoonist back to Denmark instead of offering him protection.
“The police have to explain what they really meant by doing this. What is the purpose of providing this kind of advice? The primary goal of those behind these threats is to gag people and spread fear. Police let these dark forces win when they do nothing but recommend people not to show themselves at debates and in public places,” he told VG, saying he did not necessarily share Mr Westergaard’s political views.
Upholding the value of freedom of speech, Mr Stokkan-Grande continued, “If this spreads, I’m afraid this could mean we have already lost much of our freedom by giving in to those who want to threaten us to silence. Each example of this is an attack on us all.”
So, every time Westergaard is asked to speak, receive an award or go on holiday, he will be asked to leave the country due to security concerns?
Guess the radical Islamists have won by the mere threat of terror.
Norway should re-examine its security protocols.
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Kurt Westergaard Cuts Short Norway Visit Due to Possible Attack
Danish Muhammad Cartoonist Kurt Westergaard
The Islamists will never leave Kurt Westergaard in peace.A Danish cartoonist targetted by Islamists for his 2005 caricature of the Prophet Mohammed cut short a visit to Norway after police caught wind of a possible attack against him, he said Tuesday.
Kurt Westergaard, 76, has already been the victim of a murder attempt and numerous death threats after drawing the most controversial of the 12 cartoons of the Prophet that appeared in the Danish daily Jyllands-Posten, depicting his turban with a lit fuse in it.
Westergaard had been scheduled to attend the launch in Oslo on Tuesday of a children’s book for which he provided the illustrations, but he cancelled and returned to Denmark late Monday after Norway’s intelligence agency PST was informed of a possible plot against him.
“I was told to return home immediately, the official version being that I had heart problems,” he told Norwegian broadcaster NRK.
“It’s something that was decided by the Norwegian and Danish intelligence agencies (PST and PET) and so I returned home immediately,” he said, adding that he had no health complaints in reality.
Westergaard lives with 24 hour security after an axe-wielding Somali broke into his hon=me in January 2010.
All of this for a cartoon of Mohammed.
