• Electoral College,  Larry Sabato,  President 2012

    President 2012: Gaming the Electoral College – A Tie Possible?

    The 2008 Presidential Electoral College Results

    It is easy for us political pundits to game the 2012 Presidential race with this Electoral College Vote Calculator which I mentioned previously here.

    Today, Larry Sabato in his crystal ball has run through a number of electoral scenarios. They can be found here and can be gamed at the calculator site.

    Have fun!

    I particularly like Sabato’s Electoral College tie scenario in which the House of Representatives would determine the next President.

    If Obama loses IN, OH, NC, NH, NV, FL and IA, while keeping Virginia and his other 2008 states, it is 269-269, and the House of Representatives picks the new president, with each state’s delegation having one vote and 26 votes needed for election. In today’s House, the Republican would win by a vote of 33 to 16. One state, Minnesota, has a tied delegation and presumably would not cast a vote.

    Here it is in graphic form:

    If the economy remains as poor as it is today, I don’t think it will be anywhere close to a tie and the GOP nominee will easily win the 270 votes necessary in the Electoral College.
  • Colin Powell,  Dick Cheney,  Scooter Libby,  Valerie Plame

    Doesn’t Colin Powell Owe Scooter Libby an Apology?

    Scooter Libby

    Jen rubin explains why in this excellent piece on Colin Powell, Richard Armitage, Vice President Cheney and his Chief of Staff, Scooter Libby.

    The extent of the dishonesty is quite stunning. In a Cabinet meeting on October 7, 2003, the White House press corps bombarded President George W. Bush with questions about who the leaker was. Bush said he didn’t know, but there would be an investigation to get to the bottom of it. Powell, who had been told by Armitage just days earlier that Armitage was the leaker, sat there next to the president, stone silent. Not very loyal or honest, was it?

    Moreover, the notion that Armitage’s slip was somehow inadvertent is belied by Bob Woodward’s taped interview in which Armitage repeatedly mentions Joe Wilson’s wife, evidently doing his best to get Plame’s identity out there. This was no slip of the tongue. Woodward testified that when he spoke to Libby sometime later that Libby never said anything about Plame.

    At issue here is not simply Powell and Armitage’s deception and undermining of their commander in chief. There was a victim, one whom neither Powell or Armitage has ever apologized to. The person who ultimately paid the price for this was Scooter Libby. Had the president and the country known about Armitage, a special prosecutor would never have been appointed. Libby was eventually convicted on the basis of a he-said-he-said dispute between his recollection and that of the late Tim Russert. (Charges concerning Libby’s alleged comments to Judy Miller were dismissed, and he was acquitted on the count involving Matt Cooper.) A compelling case for Libby’s innocence can be found in this account by Stan Crock.

    Powell may be peeved at being fingered by Cheney. But on this one Cheney has him dead to rights. The Plame is a blot on his record and that of Armitage. Maybe it is time to own up and make amends rather than bristling at Libby’s former boss.

    Dick Cheney said that when his book, In My Time, was released that heads would explode in D.C. It appears that Colin Powell’s has and he should apologize to Libby and Cheney for his despicable conduct in the Valerie Plame matter.

  • Amazon Tax,  California Citizens Redistricting Commission,  California Republican Party,  California State Senate,  Internet Sales Taxes

    Update: Americans for Tax Reform Call AB 155 a Pledge Violation; California Republican State Senators to Support Internet Sales Taxes?

    I have a new post up over at Flap’s California Blog on the Flap.

    Go here and read which California State Senators might FLIP.

    Kind of interesting that the California Republican Party is asking Republican donors to support a referendum to overturn the California Citizen’s Redistricting Commission’s State Senate Redistricting Maps and these Senators FLIP to support a Democratic position anyway.

    I mean, why bother, when all of the Republicans become RINOS (Republican in Name Only)?

    By the way, the legislation which will likely be heard in the California State Senate tomorrow, requires three (3) Republican Senators to FLIP (NB: none voted for the Amazon Tax when it first came through the California Legislature).

  • Amazon Tax,  California Citizens Redistricting Commission,  California Republican Party,  California State Senate,  Internet Sales Taxes

    California Republican State Senators to Support Internet Sales Taxes?

    I have a new post up over at Flap’s California Blog on the Flap.

    Go here and read which California State Senators might FLIP.

    Kind of interesting that the California Republican Party is asking Republican donors to support a referendum to overturn the California Citizen’s Redistricting Commission’s State Senate Redistricting Maps and these Senators FLIP to support a Democratic position anyway.

    I mean, why bother, when all of the Republicans become RINOS (Republican in Name Only)?

    By the way, the legislation which will likely be heard in the California State Senate tomorrow, requires three (3) Republican Senators to FLIP (NB: none voted for the Amazon Tax when it first came through the California Legislature).

  • GOP,  President 2012

    President 2012: GOP Primary Election Calendar Still NOT Set

    Good Grief.

    The GOP POLS are ready – well almost ready, but the states who are all maneuvering for position to attract Republican campaign cash to their states from the campaigns are not ready.

    RNC sanctioned scenario:

    • Iowa – February 6th
    • New Hampshire –  February 14th
    • Nevada – February 18
    • South Carolina – February 28th
    • Super Tuesday – March 6 (Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Massachusetts,Vermont)

    Or…..

    States like Arizona and Florida — risking losing half their delegates and other penalties — set their primaries early, pushing Iowa, New Hampshire, and other states into January or earlier.

    What to watch:

    • Arizona and Governor Jan Brewer who must announce her state’s primary 150 days in advance has until September 2 to set a January 31, 2012 primary date.
    • Florida has until October 1 to announce their date. The RNC’s deadline for a state changing its primary or caucus date is October 1.

    Mitt Romney will want an early Florida primary to give him momentum going into Super Tuesday. Rick Perry will like the schedule as it is certainly set, since it is front loaded with Southern states where he polls the best.

    But, is the field even set?

  • Abortion,  President 2012,  Rick Perry,  Rudy Giuliani

    President 2012: Rick Perry Will Have to Explain Why Rudy Giuliani Cannot Be His Attorney General

    In 2008 Texas Governor Rick Perry endorses Rudy Giuliani

    I am pro-life but like and supported Rudy Giuliani in 2008. You don’t always agree with a POL on all issues.

    Now, Jen Rubin points out a contradiction for the now front-running GOP Presidential candidate Texas Governor Rick Perry. 

    As other Republican contenders did before him, Texas Gov. Rick Perry signed the Susan B. Anthony List’s antiabortion pledge. That pledge includes this: “Select pro-life appointees for relevant Cabinet and Executive Branch positions, in particular the head of National Institutes of Health, the Department of Justice, and the Department of Health & Human Services.” This would exclude people such as Rudy Giuliani as attorney general. That might be fine for some Republicans, but Perry endorsed Giuliani for president in 2008. Good enough for the Oval Office but not the Justice Department? I asked the Perry campaign to explain but no answer was forthcoming.

    What say you Governor?

  • California Republican Party,  Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012

    President 2012: Mitt Romney Expanding His Presence in California – Quadrupling Size of La Jolla Home

    View from the beach of the 3,009-square-foot Romney home in La Jolla , which the GOP contender plans to demolish and replace with an 11,062-square-foot home. — Meg Roussos

    Yet, Mitt will NOT be attending the September Los Angeles California Republican Party Convention in a few weeks.

    GOP presidential contender Mitt Romney, scheduled to attend a series of fundraisers this weekend in San Diego, is also working on plans to nearly quadruple the size of his $12 million oceanfront manse in La Jolla.

    Romney has filed an application with the city to bulldoze his 3,009-square-foot, single-story home at 311 Dunemere Dr. and replace it with a two-story, 11,062-square-foot structure. No date has been set to consider the proposed coastal development and site development permits, which must be approved by the city.

    The former governor of Massachusetts purchased the home three years ago. According to a description from the listing agent, the Spanish-style residence at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac is sophisticated and understated in its décor, “offering complete privacy and unsurpassed elegance.”

    Tentative plans call for new retaining walls and a relocated driveway, but would retain the existing lap pool and spa.

    “This offering represents a truly unique opportunity for a buyer who appreciates the scarcity of this caliber of real estate,” the listing said.

    Constructed in 1936, the three-bedroom, 4.5-bathroom home was among the first built in the Barber tract neighborhood, according to the La Jolla Historical Society, and has a stretch of lawn sloping to the white sand beach.

    “I wanted to be where I could hear the waves,” Romney told a gaggle of media last year at a book signing in University City. “As a boy we spent summers on Lake Huron and I could hear the crashing waves at night. It was one of my favorite things in the world; being near the water and the waves was something I very badly wanted to experience again.”

    Probably not the best timing in the world and not the best for his political image. Remember when Senator John McCain could not remember how many homes he owned?

    But, Mitt, you have to show up to the California GOP confab.

    Michele Bachmann will be speaking Friday night and Ron Paul has already said he would attend.

  • Barack Obama,  Hispanic Vote,  Illegal Immigration,  President 2012

    President 2012: Obama Shores Up His Support Among Hispanic Voters By Deporting Illegal Immigrants By “Priority”

    Immigrant rights groups and community members call in Los Angeles Monday, Aug. 15, 2011, for an end to the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) Secure Communities program, which was created in 2008 and calls for police to submit suspects’ fingerprints to DHS so they can be cross-checked with federal deportation orders

    In a blatant display of pandering to Hispanic voters, President Obama has used his executive authority to thwart the will of Congress and federal law.

    Bowing to pressure from immigrant rights activists, the Obama administration said Thursday that it will halt deportation proceedings on a case-by-case basis against illegal immigrants who meet certain criteria, such as attending school, having family in the military or having primary responsible for other family members care.

    The move marks a major step for President Obama, who for months has said he does not have broad categorical authority to halt deportations and said he must follow the laws as Congress has written them.

    But in letters to Congress on Thursday, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said she does have discretion to focus on priorities and that her department and the Justice Department will review all ongoing cases to see who meets the new criteria.

    This case-by-case approach will enhance public safety, she said. Immigration judges will be able to more swiftly adjudicate high-priority cases, such as those involving convicted felons.

    The move won immediate praise from Hispanic activists and Democrats who had strenuously argued with the administration that it did have authority to take these actions, and said as long as Congress is deadlocked on the issue, it was up to Mr. Obama to act.

    Sounds like a revised “Dream Act” to me. Remember this was the law that was denied passage last December.

    The Obama administration announced Thursday that undocumented students and other low-priority immigration offenders would not be targeted for deportation under enforcement programs.

    The announcement marks further steps to stop the deportation of people it considers “low-priority” immigrants like so-called Dream Act-eligible students and those with long-standing family ties in the country. These eligible students are those who were illegally brought to the U.S. as children by their parents.

    The move means that those who are in deportation proceedings will have their cases reviewed and, if they are set aside as low-priority, could possibly be given work permits. Low-priority individuals will also be less likely to end up in deportation proceedings in the first place, officials said.

    In a way this is a backdoor illegal alien amnesty by executive “triage.”

    The top House Republican on the Judiciary Committee said the move is part of a White House plan to grant backdoor amnesty to illegal immigrants.

    The Obama administration should enforce immigration laws, not look for ways to ignore them, said Rep. Lamar Smith, Texas Republican. The Obama administration should not pick and choose which laws to enforce. Administration officials should remember the oath of office they took to uphold the Constitution and the laws of the land.

    There will probably be some lawsuits over this matter, but in the end the courts will decide this is within the discretion of the Homeland Security Department which is under the executive control of the President.

    But, now, the political heat and fall out will be a different story.

  • Barack Obama,  GOP,  Humour,  Reince Priebus,  Republican National Committee

    President 2012: The GOP Sends Obama’s Getaway Postcards from Martha’s Vineyard

    In a humorous fundraising e-mail the Republican National Committee is playing upon the recent Obama vacation on Martha’s Vineyard.

    Right after his tax-payer funded campaign tour of the Midwest this week, President Obama will be flying to Martha’s Vineyard for a nine day vacation. Before he jets off, send him a postcard.

    He sure needs a break after a long year criss-crossing the country raising money to save his job – all the while over 14 million Americans are out of work and even more are suffering because of his policies.

    After you send President Obama and your friends & family a postcard please take a moment to make a secure online contribution of $10, $15, $25, $50, $100 or more to support conservative candidates and help our Party defeat Barack Obama in 2012.

    Sincerely,



    Reince
    Priebus


    Chairman, Republican National Committee

    Well, it is kinder than Matt Drudge’s treatment of the President.