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U.S. Job Creation Declines in February – Hiring Down and Firing Up
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Job market conditions in the United States slid back slightly in February, as Gallup’s Job Creation Index fell to +14 from +16 in January. The February score matches those recorded from October through December 2011. However, the reading last month reflects an improvement of two percentage points compared with a year ago (+12 in February 2011).
Hiring Down, Firing UpThe February Job Creation Index of +14 is based on 32% of workers nationwide saying their employers are hiring workers and expanding the size of their workforce, and 18% saying their employers are letting workers go and reducing the size of their workforce. The percentage hiring is down from 33% in January, while the percentage letting go is up from 17%. Both February percentages now match the readings recorded each month in the fourth quarter of 2011.
The chart:
What does all mean?
The American economy is NOT dramatically improving on the jobs front. With gasoline prices haven risen and rising and job creation prospects flat around the country in almost all regions – see map at the top), the Obama Administration will have a hard time making a case for success of their economic policies.
Declining consumer confidence is also generally unfavorable for the economy.
Gallup’s March numbers are looking a little better, but stay tuned since it is early in the month.
There will be no carping from the White House on these numbers, in advance of the government’s release of their numbers on Friday.
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Poll Watch: Scott Walker Recall Race is Close
Wisconsin State Governor Scott Walker speaks after signing the ceremonial bill, after the Republican-controlled House and Senate eliminated almost all collective bargaining for most public workers, at the state Capitol in Madison, Wisconsin March 11, 2011
According to the latest PPP Poll.Democratic prospects for recalling Scott Walker are looking like even money right now, an improvement for the party since PPP’s last poll in October when Walker led most of his potential opponents.
Walker continues to be unpopular with only 47% of voters approving of him to 52% who disapprove. Pretty much all Republicans approve of him and pretty much all Democrats disapprove, but what turns the scales against him is that he’s at just 43/55 with independents.
Walker trails both of his most likely opponents in the recall election by narrow margins. Tom Barrett would lead 49-46 in a rematch of their 2010 contest, and Kathleen Falk has a 48-47 advantage. These numbers represent positive movement for both Barrett and Falk who trailed by 2 and 8 points respectively on PPP’s last poll of the race.
Those are tenuous leads for the Democratic hopefuls. In the State Senate recall elections last summer we generally found that sentiment moved away from recalling the incumbents as the election came closer. And Wisconsin voters aren’t exactly dying to remove Walker from office- 49% generally support a recall and 49% generally oppose one…it’s going to take a very strong Democratic campaign to knock Walker out.It will take a strong campaign to oust Walker and interestingly enough campaign funding of recall elections in Wisconsin have NO donation limits.
This will be a heavily funded and fought campaign and it will be close all of the way.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney Regains National Poll Lead
According to the latest Gallup Poll.The topsy-turvy Republican presidential race has taken another turn, this time in Mitt Romney’s favor. Romney now holds a 32% to 28% advantage over Rick Santorum after Santorum led for most of the last 10 days, including a 10-percentage-point advantage a week ago. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul remain well behind Romney and Santorum.
The latest results are based on Feb. 22-26 Gallup Daily tracking interviews with 1,160 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationwide who are registered to vote. They show Romney gaining momentum nationally heading into Tuesday’s important Michigan and Arizona primaries, the first contests in nearly three weeks. Santorum surged to his first lead in Gallup’s tracking after he swept the Feb. 7 contests in Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado. Santorum’s decline in recent days has come as Romney and Paul, in particular, have stepped up their criticism of his voting record in Congress and his positions on issues.
I have been sensing the change in momentum back to Mitt Romney.
The fact is that Rick Santorum does not have the resources to compete with all of the campaign cash that Mitt Romney can use attacking him with negative advertising.
So, even if Rick Santorum does not win Michigan tomorrow, but does well, the GOP field will go into Super Tuesday and Southern states where both Santorum and/or Newt Gingrich will be better positioned to win delegates.
This race is not over by a long shot.
The Republican nomination contest is entering a crucial phase with the Michigan and Arizona primaries on Tuesday and 10 state primaries or caucuses on March 6. To the extent Romney, Santorum, or one of the other candidates wins the bulk of these contests, he will likely emerge as the strong front-runner for the GOP nomination.
Although the lead has changed hands a number of times over the course of the campaign, Romney has been consistently near the top. His standing suggests he is perhaps not embraced enough by the party to emerge as the clear and consistent front-runner, but he has been better able than his rivals to withstand the scrutiny that comes with being a leading contender for the nomination.
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Poll Watch: Contraception Issue Divides Americans
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Americans have paid fairly close attention to the news about whether religious-based employers should have to provide contraception coverage for employees as part of their health plans. When asked what they think about the issue, 48% of all Americans say they sympathize more with the views of religious leaders, while 45% sympathize more with the Obama administration. The views of men and women are nearly identical.
But. let’s break it down by religion:
No surprise here with Protestants and Catholics siding more on the religious side.But, for President Obama who is running for re-election, this poll must give him pause. Catholics by a 17 point margin are favoring their religious leaders and not his Administration.
Since the Catholic Bishops have not accepted Obama’s compromise, this issue will come back again closer to the election, unless ObamaCare is ruled unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court in the early summer.
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President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney and Santorum Within Striking Distance of Obama in National Polling
According to the latest Gallup Poll.U.S. registered voters are closely divided in their 2012 presidential election preferences between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, and between Obama and Rick Santorum. Romney is slightly ahead of Obama, 50% to 46%, while Obama edges Santorum, 49% to 48%, but neither of these differences is statistically significant.
Santorum and Romney are the current leaders in the volatile Republican primary race. In Gallup Daily tracking conducted Feb. 17-21, 35% of Republican voters nationwide support Santorum, compared with 27% for Romney, 15% for Newt Gingrich, and 10% for Ron Paul.
Good news for the GOP since all of the good news coming out of D.C. lately has been about Obama and how his prospects have been improving. This polling, however, was done prior to the precipitous rise in gasoline prices and I suspect the next round of polling may even be better for the Republican challengers.
The next major campaign event after Wednesday night’s Republican debate in Arizona will be the Feb. 28 primaries in Michigan and Arizona. The results of those contests will affect the relative standing and images of Romney and Santorum, which could in turn affect their positioning against Obama in hypothetical trial heat match-ups. At the moment, however, both Republican candidates would find themselves in a close race with the president if the election were held today.
This poll will likely help Santorum on the electability issue. But, on the basis of last night’s debate, it cannot be said that Santorum has gained any more momentum in the race.
In another week, after the February 28 primaries, we will have a better idea of the state of the race.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Republican Voters Don’t Want a Brokered Convention
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Republicans by a better than 2-to-1 margin would prefer that one of the four remaining GOP presidential candidates win enough delegates in the primaries and caucuses to secure the nomination, rather than having a brokered convention that could then choose another person to be the party’s presidential nominee.
Republicans prefer to avoid having the presidential candidate chosen at the convention even though a majority say they wish someone else was running for the party’s nomination. Forty-four percent are pleased with the selection of candidates. These results are based on a Feb. 16-19 USA Today/Gallup poll.
I don’t believe most Republicans even understand the nomination process – just who emerges as the victor.
If a stronger candidate comes out of the convention, which I believe will, than the current field – then so be it.
The current GOP Presidential field is weak and after the first ballot when delegates are released to vote for whomever and state delegations make deals, you may see a stronger candidate emerge.
Whoever wants the nomination and whoever can organize their troops on the convention floor will win.
Anyone want to guess who will emerge?
My bet is Jeb Bush or Sarah Palin.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Santorum Leading Romney But Romney Leads in Electability
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Rick Santorum now holds a 10-percentage-point lead in Gallup’s Daily tracking of national Republicans registered voters’ preferences for the 2012 GOP nomination.
In the Feb. 15-19 Gallup Daily tracking rolling average, Santorum is ahead of Romney by 36% to 26%, with Newt Gingrich at 13% and Ron Paul at 11%. This marks Santorum’s largest lead to date. Santorum had moved to within two points of Romney, 30% to 32%, by the end of last week.
There is a big BUT, however.
Many pundits, including myself think that Rick Santorum will be the Biggest Loser when it comes to running against President Obama.
The Gallup Poll shows that many Republican primary voters think likewise.
So, what is the Republican Party to do?
In a separate USA Today/Gallup survey conducted Feb. 16-19, all Americans were asked which of the two candidates — Romney or Santorum — they believed would have the best chance of beating Barack Obama in November. Overall, 54% of Americans named Romney and 29% chose Santorum.
Fewer Republicans are undecided on this issue, leaving 58% who say Romney has the best chance of beating Obama, while 32% choose Santorum.
The next month should tell the tale – so stay tuned…..
Santorum’s leap upward was the direct result of his unexpected victories in the Minnesota, Colorado, and Missouri primaries and caucuses on Feb. 7. There have been no major votes since then, and no debates, but that is about to change. Looming on the horizon are the Feb. 22 GOP debate in Arizona, the Michigan and Arizona primaries on Tuesday, Feb. 28, and then a number of high-profile primaries and caucuses throughout March. Going by the pattern established this year, the results of each event have a good chance of further affecting the relative standing of the GOP candidates in the eyes of Republicans nationally.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Close Race in Michigan
Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney
A couple of recent polls show a dead heat in Michigan.- Romney – 29%
- Santorum – 29%
- Gingrich – 10%
- Paul – 12%
- Undecided – 20%
The Republican race for President in Michigan has tightened considerably over the last week, with what was a 15 point lead for Rick Santorum down to 4. He leads with 37% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 10% for Newt Gingrich.
The tightening over the last week is much more a function of Romney gaining than Santorum falling. Santorum’s favorability spread of 67/23 has seen no change since our last poll, and his share of the vote has dropped only 2 points from 39% to 37%. Romney meanwhile has seen his net favorability improve 10 points from +10 (49/39) to +20 (55/35) and his vote share go from 24% to 33%.
What we’re seeing in Michigan is a very different story from Florida where Romney surged by effectively destroying his opponent’s image- here Romney’s gains have more to do with building himself up.
Groups Santorum has double digit leads with include Protestants (up 47-30), union members (up 43-23), Evangelicals (up 51-24), Tea Partiers (up 55-20), ‘very conservative’ voters (up 54-23), and men (up 40-28).
Romney is leading the field with women (38-34), seniors (42-34), moderates (35-24), ‘somewhat conservative’ voters (40-34), and Catholics (43-31).
As I have said, if Mitt Romney were to lose Michigan, the state of his youth and family legacy, there will undoubtedly be another candidate who will jump into the race. If Romney wins Michigan by a point or two, then there may also be a challenge.
Take your pick: Mitch Daniels or Jeb Bush.
Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are not polling well in general election match-ups against President Obama. The GOP Establsihment will not stand by and let Santorum and/or Gingrich sink their 2012 prospects.
But, the new candidate will have to move quickly since election deadlines loom in early March.
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Poll Watch: U.S. Unemployment Rate Increases to 9.0 Per Cent
According to the latest Gallup Poll.The U.S. unemployment rate, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 9.0% in mid-February, up from 8.6% for January. The mid-month reading normally reflects what the U.S. government reports for the entire month, and is up from 8.3% in mid-January.
Gallup’s mid-month unemployment reading, based on the 30 days ending Feb. 15, serves as a preliminary estimate of the U.S. government report, and suggests the Bureau of Labor Statistics will likely report on the first Friday of March that its seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased in February. Gallup found that unemployment decreased to 8.3% in its mid-January report, and suggested that the U.S. unemployment rate the BLS reported for January would decline.
Gallup also finds 10.0% of U.S. employees in mid-February are working part time but want full-time work, essentially the same as in January. The mid-February reading means the percentage of Americans who can only find part-time work remains close to its high since Gallup began measuring employment status in January 2010.
Although the past few weeks, the pundits have been spinning that the economy has been improving. America is not out of the woods just yet as far as unemployment.
And, underemployment has increased. Remember underemployment is a measure that combines the percentage of workers who are unemployed with the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work.
Now, let’s see what the United States government reports in early March.
But, the trend is upward in the unemployment rate.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Santorum 34% Vs. Romney 30% Vs. Gingrich 14% Vs. Paul 11%
Rick Santorum is maintaining his surge in the Gallup Daily tracking poll.But, is his surge more about Romney?
And, then there is Newt who will do well in the South and apparently has the campaign cash flowing in again.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s faltering campaign is about to get another shot in the arm, CBS News has learned.
Billionaire casino magnate Sheldon Adelson plans to give another $10 million to the outside group backing the former Georgia lawmaker who is running behind former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, a source close to Adelson told CBS News.
Adleson and his family have already given $11 million to “Winning our Future,” the super PAC backing Gingrich. The group, which bombarded the airwaves in South Carolina last month ahead of the primary there, is largely credited with helping Gingrich win in the Palmetto state.
The latest $10 million cash injection would raise the Adelson family’s contribution to $21 million, and a different source close to Adelson said he is prepared to drop another $4 million for a total of $25 million. The Huffington Post calculated that the billionaire casino owner earns about $3.3 million an hour.