-
CA-Sen Poll Watch: Boxer 46% Vs. Fiorina 43%
Poll Summary Chart Screenshot on January 17, 2010
The California U.S. Senate campaign for Carly Fiorina should be happy this morning – look at the trend line above. After all, the latest poll from Rasmussen has her trailing incumbent Democrat Senator Barbara Boxer by only three points.
Rasmussen PollingThe latest poll results are within the margin of error unlike California Assemblyman Chuck DeVore who after campaigning for over a year does twice as poorly as Fiorina.Tom Campbell who until this past week has been campaigning for California Governor polls better by DeVore but is very close to the margin of error which is 4.5%.
It is apparent from his anemic fundraising and poor polling that DeVore’s campaign is doing the worst in this race with a too early to tell being given to Tom Campbell (I mean how many times has he run for California public office – many).
Fiorina who only announced her candidacy in early November has the most campaign cash on hand and an impressive list of California and national Republican Senators/donors. Then, there is her personal wealth which she can tap from time to time.
There are little prospects of any sustained advertising campaign from either DeVore or Campbell (who cannot transfer any funds raised in his Governor campaign and whose donorts must abide by federal campaign donation limits). When Fiorina starts to drop the direct mail, goes on the radio and does some limited television advertising one would expect her poll numbers to improve and differentiate herself from both DeVore and Campbell.
But, it is anyone’s guess how voters will perceive a three-way GOP primary election. With the Democrats unlikey to have a contested race this June with the concomitant draw of independent voters who may vote in the Republican primary, the race will depend on turn-out. Fiorina should have the advantage here.
The California Field poll is in the field and will be released next week. For now, the Fiorina campaign must be pleased at her progress (after all, Carly spent last spring and summer battling breast cancer – there was a question whether she would EVEN be a candidate).
I know someone who is not, however – Senator Barbara Boxer.
Previous:CA-Sen Poll Watch: Barbara Boxer in Trouble for Re-Election in 2010
Technorati Tags: Barbara_Boxer, Carly_Fiorina, Chuck_DeVore, Tom_Campbell
-
CA-Sen Poll Watch: Barbara Boxer in Trouble for Re-Election in 2010
California U.S. Senate candidate Carly Fiorina addressing the Conejo Valley Republican Women candidate’s luncheon todayBad news for Democrat California U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer from the Rasmussen polling folks this afternoon.
California Senator Barbara Boxer is now the latest Democratic incumbent to find herself in a tightening race for reelection.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely California voters finds Boxer with narrow leads over her three leading Republican challengers, including newcomer Tom Campbell.
As in much of the country, the story may turn in part on the health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats, even though support for it is higher in California than nationally.
In California, 49% favor the health care plan, while 48% oppose it. But as in other states, the emotion is on the side of the opponents: Just 25% of California voters Strongly Favor the plan while 39% Strongly Oppose it.
Perhaps even more significantly, 55% of California voters rate the U.S. economy as poor, while just seven percent (7%) think it’s good or excellent. Golden State voters are evenly divided over whether the economy is improving: 36% say it’s getter better, while 35% say it’s getting worse. Twenty-five percent (25%) believe it’s staying about the same.
“Any incumbent who polls below 50% at this point in the season is considered potentially vulnerable,†noted Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports. “However, vulnerable incumbents still have the power of their office and still have a decent chance of winning. The Democratic leaning political gravity of California will certainly give Senator Boxer a boost in that effort.â€
Here are the poll results:
Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is only behind by three points after having announced her candidacy in November 2009. Tom Campbell who until this week was running for California Governor and who has twice before run for the U.S. Senate is behind by 4 points. Chuck DeVore who has been running against Boxer for over a year trails by 6 points.As Rasmussen points out, this polling is more about Boxer than it is the three GOP challengers. But, the significance of this poll is that for whatever reasons Boxer and the Democrats will have to spend her $6 million campaign war chest in order to defend this seat.
A clear advanatge goes to Carly Fiorina who has amassed campaign cash far in excess of her two competitors. There is little doubt that with a contested seat that she will be able to call upon her national Republican supporters to provide more. And, then there is also her substantial personal wealth which in a close race can always be called upon.
I attended the Conejo Valley Republican Woman candidate’s luncheon today where Carly Fiorina addressed the faithful. I will have more on this later, including my brief interview with Carly.
Stay tuned…….
Technorati Tags: Barbara Boxer, Carly_Fiorina, Chuck_DeVore, Tom Campbell
-
CA-Sen: Chuck DeVore Boosts Up Carly Fiorina With HIS OWN Opposition Research
California Assemblyman and U.S. Senate candidate Chuck DeVore Tweeting
Oops Josh Trevino, Chuck DeVore’s spokeshole has done it again.Campaign spokesman Josh Trevino alerted Chuck DeVore’s legions of followers and fans to a piece in the Washington Independent on the entry of Tom Campbell into the U.S. Senate race that seemingly provides ammunition to Carly Fiorina’s camp.
Trevino latched onto reporter Dave Weigel’s characterization of Campbell’s Senate candidacy as a “vote of no-confidence” in the Fiorina campaign.
The piece notes that Campbell, as finance director for Arnold Schwarzenegger, “helped muscle through” the 2005 budget. Legislative analysis noted, “that expenditures are projected to grow from $81.7 billion in 2004-05 to $90 billion in 2005-06, an increase of over 10 percent.”
So naturally one would assume DeVore stood opposed in all his conservative glory. But he actually joined with the Democrats and voted for the budget that also included funding for abortion.
This is pretty funny stuff. Chuck DeVore’s campaign bolstering the argument that Carly Fiorina is better on the issue of fiscal responsibility than himself. Every California voter knows the last few California budgets have been a disaster for the economy here.
It is almost as funny as DeVore’s op-ed today in the Washington Times on the issue of Afghanistan – where he flip-flops.
“As a result of culture and geography, Mr. Obama’s Afghan surge will likely fall short of its objectives while spending $40 billion per year. Employing conventional forces in pursuit of terrorists and guerrilla forces is always an expensive proposition. Attempting to build nations on soil not yet fertile to the concepts of democracy and national unity is even more problematic. Neither is needed to produce the result we want: deadly consequences for attacking Americans. This can be done with special forces, drones and better human intelligence.” (emphasis added)
Remember what DeVore said previously in a statement where he bashed President Obama speaking at West Point:
“The first reason is that the number of Americans is insufficient for the task at hand and added incrementally as to give the Taliban a chance to adjust.”
Gee, I am no foreign policy expert but I know a flip when I read one. Or, was Chuck simply dancing around the issue to see if an Afghan “surge” would be successful, then he could claim being right on the issue. So, what is it Chuck?
Want to bet whether Carly Fiorina will be using this DeVore OPPO research?
Technorati Tags: Chuck_DeVore, Josh_Trevino, Carly_Fiorina
-
CA-Sen: Tom Campbell to Switch to U.S. Senate Race on Thursday?
+++++Update+++++It has been confirmed that Tom Campbell will switch races on Thursday.Campbell has scheduled two news conferences to make the announcement: one at 9 a.m. in Los Angeles, the other at 2:30 p.m. at the San Jose Fairmont hotel, according to an e-mail from Campbell’s campaign that was sent Monday to his major supporters. The e-mail referred to a “soon to be announced new venture” — confirmed by campaign sources to be a Senate run.
California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and former Rep. Tom Campbell
Apparently so.Former Rep. Tom Campbell (R-Calif.) appears primed to switch from California’s governor’s race to its Senate race, and it looks like he will make an announcement Thursday morning.
In an invitation from the Los Angeles County GOP to an event featuring governor candidate Steve Poizner, Chairwoman Jane Barnett says Campbell won’t be coming to the event “as a candidate for governor.”
“Tom Campbell has notified me that he will not be visiting with us as a candidate for Governor this Thursday,” Barnett writes. “He will be making an announcement that morning — so stay tuned to the news.”
Campbell apparently thinks he can make more of a dent in the Senate primary, where Carly Fiorina’s personal funds aren’t on the same level as Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner. They have each spent about $19 million of their own money; Fiorina has spent $2.5 million.
Well, both Carly Fiorina and Tom Campbell are slated to speak at the Conejo Valley Republican Womens’ meeting on Friday in Thousand Oaks which Flap will attend.
Should make for some interesting GOP fireworks.
Stay tuned…….
Technorati Tags: Tom_Campbell, Carly_Fiorina, Chuck_DeVore
-
CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina Raises $1.1 Million for Senate Campaign in Two Months While Chuck DeVore Moans
Republican United States Senate candidate Carly Fioria in San Deigo today (visitng Hawthorne Power Systems)
Remember former CEO of Hewlett-Packard Carly Fiorina announced her candidacy for the United States Senate from California on November 4, 2009. In the meantime, she has raised over $1 million for her campaign.
From the press release:Since the official launch of her campaign 60 days ago, support for Fiorina’s candidacy has continued to grow with more than $1 million in financial support coming in large part from Californians in nearly 500 cities and towns across the state. Eighty three percent of all donations are in amounts of less than $250 and the overall average donation amount to Carly’s campaign is less than $350. Carly’s online fundraising has raised $232,000.
In addition, Carly and her husband Frank have personally invested in her campaign. She has loaned the campaign $2.5 million. Click here to view a PDF of the summary page of Carly’s first fundraising quarter.
The Fiorina campaign reports having over $2.7 million of campaign cash on hand.
Whereas, her opponent for the Republican nomination California Assemblyman Chuck DeVore reports far less in receipts. I have reported Chuck DeVore’s lack of fundraising ability before – both here and here.
Yet, DeVore sends out his spokeshole Josh Trevino to try to spin the shortfall and his lack of campaign fundraising ability.
The DeVore campaign argues that it’s been able to do more with less, by keeping the race a dead heat despite Fiorina’s higher spending. According to the DeVore campaign, he has spent $352,000, compared to $830,000 spent by Fiorina.
“Carly Fiorina sunk well over twice the funds into her campaign, just to get to polling parity with Chuck DeVore,” DeVore spokesman Josh Trevino wrote in an email.
Trevino also cautioned that, “I wish to stress that the DeVore for California numbers here are only approximate. We don’t have final figures yet, but these are broadly correct.”
But, Chuck, Carly did not start fundraising until November of 2009 and you have been unable to raise money for over a year now.
And, what is this BS about polling parity? There hasn’t been a poll in this race for about two months and the last one only a week or so after Carly formally announced.
Keep moaning Chuck as Fiorina drops the targeted direct mail and runs television commercials while you can only twitter and watch.
Technorati Tags: Carly_Fiorina, Chuck_DeVore
-
CA-Sen: Chuck DeVore Drawing Upon Ron Paul and Teaching the GOP a Lesson
California Assemblyman Chuck DeVore interviewed by John D Villarreal, Esq.In this kind of creepy interview, Chuck DeVore panders to the Ron Paul faction of the RIGHT but doesn’t quite articulate what Federal Reserve or taxation Paulite policies with which he is in agreement. But, it was apparently good enough to get a mention over at the Ron Paul forums.
Chuck goes on to lecture the GOP as to what the party should be “because the parties are NOT receptacles of principles.”
Huh?
Then, why NOT run as an independent?
Anyway, watch the rest of the video and see that Devore is running as much to stick it to the establishment GOP leadership as he is to beat Democrat Senator Barbara Boxer. I thought the point was to win the election.
Technorati Tags: Chuck_DeVore, Ron_Paul
-
CA-Sen: Chuck DeVore Says Pro-Life While He Votes For Public Taxpayer Funding of Abortion
California Assemblyman and U.S. Senate candidate Chuck DeVore Tweeting
Oops the impeccable conservative as Chuck DeVore likes to call himself has been caught up in another hypocritical FLAP. Remember the last time it was nanny state hypocrisy.This time the subject is abortion.
DeVore voted to approve the California state budget in 2005 and 2008. Both budgets contained funding for Medi-Cal, the state’s Medicaid program. Medi-Cal uses state money to subsidize abortion (the use of federal funds for elective abortion within Medicaid is barred under the Hyde Amendment). Both times DeVore voted yes the budgets passed easily, but with non-trivial numbers of GOP no votes. Both times, efforts to separate out the abortion funding from the budgets had already been defeated when the final vote took place. Consequently, the budgets as passed contained abortion funding.
As of 2004, Medi-Cal funded nearly 40 percent of all abortions performed in California. According to the Women’s Health Rights Coalition, that amounts to “an estimated 90,946 induced abortions out of the total 236,000 performed.” Roughly $33 million is spent funding abortions. Wynette Sills of the Coalition to Eliminate Abortion Funding told a pro-life website that 25 percent of the money goes to Planned Parenthood, despite the abortion provider’s reported $1 billion in revenues. At the national level, the health care debate illustrates the importance of having a precise understanding of how legislation could result in taxpayer funding of abortion.
Chuck, if you are sooooo pro-life why did you vote for public funding for abortion?
Why did you vote for these California budgets that included this abortion enabling funding for Planned Parenthood?
Or did you conveniently forget about these votes?
Technorati Tags: Chuck_DeVore, Abortion
-
CA-Sen: How is the Chuck DeVorementum?
Justin Hart, new media director for Senatorial candidate and California Assemblyman Chuck DeVore on the left and Chuck DeVore
The momentum for California Assemblyman Chuck DeVore’s U.S. Senate campaign against Carly Fiorina is NOT going so well.Let’s be clear about something here. DeVore launched his candidacy over a year ago (November 12) and claimed even then that he was trying to emulate the newly-elected President’s fundraising operation. California is an expensive state that would require millions in funds to compete.
DeVore’s campaign announced last week that his campaign crossed the $1 million raised threshold. That’s $1 million raised in roughly 54 weeks. Or less than $250,000 a quarter. Congressional candidates do better than that. Jerry McNerney raised $247,000 in Q3 of this year ($800,000 YTD at that time) and he’s a second-term congressman running for re-election.
In a few years he can run a full 30 second ad across the state for a week. Can you feel the DeVorementum?
Flap has documented DeVore’s lack of campaign cash previously.
And, look at Chuck’s latest fundraising letter touting his endorsement by the Erick Erickson and the Red State blog:
It sounds to me that DeVore has already conceded the election to Carly Fiorina and remains in the race to stick it in the eye of the MAN – meaning the Republican Establishment because they WILL NOT support him financially or otherwise.
Tell me Chuck, are you raising money and staying in this race to win? Or to strke back at Senators Cornyn and McConnell?
Technorati Tags: Chuck_DeVore, Carly_Fiorina
-
CA-Sen: Chuck DeVore A Nanny State HYPOCRITE?
From California Assemblyman Chuck DeVore’s Twitter Stream
Afraid so.As Chuck who is running for the United States Senate while an incumbent member of the California Legislature, rails about the NANNY STATE re: solid brass fittings for his house, it is EASY to point out that DeVore himself did the same with regards to pregnant women.
DeVore’s idea was to give pregnant and post-pregnant women some special so-called “handicapped” parking privileges. More specifically, a bill recently introduced by DeVore, AB 1940, would have defined women’s last trimester of pregnancy and the first two months after birth as a time of “temporary disability,” which would have entitled them to obtain handicapped placards and to park in most handicapped spots during that five-month period.
I mean for a so-called small government conservative as DeVore considers himself how stupid is this?
But, good ol’ Chuck is undeterred – at least on Twitter as he fires again.
And, even writes a piece for the Andrew Breitbart’s blog, Big Government, about what?Yeah, those damn brass plumbing fixtures for HIS house.
Last night was one of those nights when I was mad as hell at the California State government and their foolish, micro-managing, Big-Nanny ways. (Caution, dear reader, such rage at the machine has been known to cause the temporary insanity of running for public office.)
The cause of my extended rant? AB 1953, a law passed in 2006 that goes into effect on January 1, 2010, the purpose of which was to define lead-free plumbing from 4% in fixtures down to the European Union standard of 0.25%. Not that the science supported this change. Once lead was removed as a gasoline additive, taken out of paints, and removed from plumbing (the Latin word for plumbing is where we get the chemical symbol for lead: Pb), human lead exposure dropped significantly. Having a small percentage of lead bound up in a brass alloy plumbing fixture isn’t going to add a statistically meaningful amount of lead exposure to anyone.
But, Chuck what about your own bill for pregnant women?
We’re pleased a Nanny State intrusion wisely was rejected Monday in a legislative committee vote that killed Assemblyman Chuck DeVore’s plan to extend special parking privileges to pregnant women.
Mr. DeVore, R-Irvine, often has lambasted Nanny Staters for their know-it-all intrusions into peoples’ lives. But apparently he isn’t immune to the “fix-everyone’s-problem” syndrome. His bill would have extended temporary handicapped parking passes to pregnant women, despite the obvious fact pregnant women aren’t handicapped. This GOP version of Nanny Statism had the usual flaw we see when Big Brother “helps.” It’s entirely arbitrary.
Assembly Bill 1940 would have extended special privileges to 500,000 pregnant women a year in California, but not at once. It was only for the last three months of pregnancy. Why not the last four? Why not all nine? It was also for women for two more after giving birth. Why not four months? Why not a year? Why at all?
We like pregnant women. In fact, we’re indebted to them. But Mr. DeVore’s bill was just another intrusion into places the government should not go. When government doles out privileges, they are not only arbitrary, they instantly create a subclass dependent on government for continuing the special consideration denied to others. This is typical of Democratic politics, which divvies the population into interest groups, each relying on government to fund or protect its special privilege.
It sounds to me like Nanny state for ME but NOT for thee.
And, this guy is running for the United States Senate? Someone who becomes unhinged because of plumbing fixtures and then exposes his own hypocrisy?
Wow, just weird!
Technorati Tags: Chuck_DeVore, Nanny_State
-
Updated: CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina Leads in Race to Defeat Senator Barbara Boxer But…..
++++++ Update ++++++Here are the favorable/unfavorable ratings:
Favorable / Unfavorable
Barbara Boxer: 51 / 41 +10
Chuck DeVore: 31 / 25 +6
Carly Fiorina: 40 / 29 +11California GOP U.S. Senate candidate Carly Fiorina on the Kudlow Report (November 18, 2009)But, the but is a big one. Carly Fiorina polls better than Chuck DeVore but continues to trail the incumbent Democrat Senator Boxer.
On the other hand, Senator Boxer is considered to be vulnerable.
Any incumbent who polls less than 50% is considered vulnerable, and 2010 is shaping up as a tough political year for Democrats. Still, Boxer, who is expected to seek a fourth term in the Senate next year, was reelected in 2004 with 58% of the vote, and California remains a heavily Democratic state.
Twenty-four percent (24%) of voters share a very favorable opinion of Boxer, down three points from October. One in three voters (33%) now view her very unfavorably, up five points from last month.
Only 8% view Fiorina very favorably and 9% view her very unfavorably.
Just 4% view DeVore very favorably and 7% view him very unfavorably.
At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.
And…. while DeVore has been campaigning for over a year, his candidacy has shown NO positive movement, especially during the time Fiorina has been battling breast cancer. Carly has only been an announced candidate for two weeks and although now is in full campaign mode did very few events from February though October.
The polling continues to show promise for Fiorina in picking off Barbara Boxer.
Stay tuned…..
Technorati Tags: Barbara_Boxer, Carly_Fiorina, Chuck_DeVore