• Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney 19% Huckabee 17% Palin 9% Trump 8% Gingrich 7% Paul 7%

    According to the latest Fox News Poll.

    With the Republican field for the 2012 presidential nomination still in flux, the two major candidates who ran for president in 2008 — Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee — receive the most backing among GOP voters nationally.

    Romney garners the support of 19 percent of Republicans and Huckabee 17 percent, according to a Fox News poll released Thursday. The next group of candidates is bunched together: Sarah Palin at nine percent, Donald Trump at eight percent, and Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul receive seven percent a piece.

    Earlier this month, Huckabee was at 15 percent among Republican voters, Romney 14 percent, Palin 12 percent, Trump 11 percent and Gingrich 7 percent (April 3-5).

    Among voters who consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement, Huckabee (19 percent) and Romney (17 percent) are still the top two choices, followed by Palin (10 percent) and Trump (10 percent). No other contenders receive double-digit support.

    The GOP Primary:

    • Mitt Romney – 19%
    • Mike Huckabee – 17%
    • Sarah Palin – 9%
    • Donald Trump – 8%
    • Newt Gingrich – 7%
    • Ron Paul – 7%

    The entire poll is here.

    The poll was taken Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday nights, so some interviews were conducted before and some were after the president released his birth certificate.

    The Fox News poll is based on landline and cell phone interviews with 911 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from April 25 to April 27. For the total sample, it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for April 28th on 17:10

    These are my links for April 28th from 17:10 to 17:17:

    • Paul Ryan’s Plan Would Not Remotely End Medicare – In light of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s shameless ad saying that the Paul Ryan-authored House Republican budget would “end Medicare,” it is worth noting that the Congressional Budget Office says that, in 2030, the Republican plan would give the average senior $18,276 in premium support to help purchase private health insurance ($15,000 in 2022, increased by 2.5 percent annually, to keep up with inflation). In addition, lower-income seniors would get another $9,504 to put into a medical savings account (an MSA) to use for additional medical expenses, bringing their annual tally of taxpayer-funded support to $27,780.  

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      Read it all

      Not even close to ending Medicare.

    • Mark Steyn on The Royal Wedding’s Invite List – Steady on, Jonah, old bean. I yield to no one in my contempt for the wretched state of depraved contemporary London but tomorrow’s shindig will be one of the least unwholesome gatherings held in the metropolis in recent years. For a start, it’s not a “state” occasion, because Prince William is not the Heir to the Throne. So it’s what Buckingham Palace regards as “family.” See here: Minor royals like the Earl of Ulster and Lady Gabriella Windsor; viceregal eminences from the Queen’s realms such as the Governors-General of Canada and Belize; Commonwealth Prime Ministers and their spouses such as Sir Michael and Lady Somare of Papua New Guinea; colonial premiers such as the Chief Minister of Montserrat. Nothing to frighten the horses.

      There are no foreigners — ie, the President of the United States or France — except members of other royal houses, most of which are distant kin of the Queen — the King of Norway, the Queen of Spain. The rest are from monarchies more or less installed by London when they were under British protection, which is why various Bahraini, Omani, and Kuwaiti princelings will be swanning about. The entire Middle East is a giant clogged septic tank of toxic waste, but, if you’ll forgive a rough generalization, the least fetid despots in the region are the toytown monarchs promoted by the Brits — and most of them were at the Queen’s Coronation, too.

      Let’s keep a sense of proportion here. If you want revolting guest lists, try the U.N. Human Rights Council.

      ======

      Mark Steyn is a classic…..

    • Simon Ledger arrested for ‘racism’ after performing Kung Fu Fighting – A pub singer has been arrested on suspicion of racism for singing the classic chart hit Kung Fu Fighting.

      The song, performed by Simon Ledger, 34, is said to have offended two Chinese people as they walked past the bar where he was singing.

      The entertainer regularly performs the 1974 number one hit, originally by disco star Carl Douglas, at the Driftwood Beach Bar in Sandown, on the Isle of Wight.

      =======

      WTF?

      Political correctness has reached a new low……

  • Mike Huckabee,  President 2012

    President 2012: Mike Huckabee Asking Folks to Keep Their Powder Dry

    Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee

    Is Mike Huckabee in or out of the Presidential race?

    One of Mike Huckabee’s political confidantes in the early primary state of South Carolina spoke with the former Arkansas governor Thursday and received assurances that he is still “seriously” weighing a presidential bid.

    Mike Campbell, who chaired Huckabee’s South Carolina campaign in 2008, told CNN that he called his former boss after a South Carolina blog erroneously claimed that Huckabee had decided against running again in 2012.

    The report quickly shot around the web Wednesday and forced Huckabee’s team to knock down the rumor.

    Campbell called the blog item “a bunch of bull” but said he decided to call Huckabee anyway.

    “He said, ‘Mike, obviously that’s unfounded and completely untrue,'” Campbell said of his conversation with Huckabee. “He told me, ‘I’m just asking folks to keep their powder dry because there may be something coming in the future that may be worth keeping your powder dry for.”

    Asked about his presidential intentions, the former Arkansas governor told Campbell, “I am weighing it very heavily and I am considering it as seriously as I have ever been.”

    I say Huck will run and when you see Chuck Norris make an appearance, then we will know for sure. Ed Rollin’s statement a while ago was key.

    Huckabee was NOT considering the race but with all of the polls showing him doing so well, he has been persuaded to go for it.

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for April 28th on 16:25

    These are my links for April 28th from 16:25 to 16:35:

    • California Pensions: Public hospital president’s retirement pay highlights issue of ‘supplemental’ pensions – When he turned 65 two years ago, Samuel Downing received a $3-million retirement payment from a public hospital district in Salinas, Calif., where he serves as president and chief executive.

      But Downing continued working at his $668,000-a-year job for another two years, and after he retires this week, he will receive another payment of nearly $900,000. That comes on top of his regular pension of $150,000 a year.

      The payments amount to one of the more generous pension packages granted to a public official in California and come amid growing debate about "supplemental" pensions that some officials receive on top of their basic retirement benefits.

      Though Downing's case is extreme, it follows the disclosure of extra pension benefits received by employees in municipalities including Bell and San Diego. Earlier this year, a state watchdog group called for stricter pension rules, saying California's retirement plans are "dangerously underfunded, the result of overly generous benefit promises, wishful thinking and an unwillingness to plan prudently." Seventy percent of Californians support a cap on pensions for current and future government workers, according to a recent Los Angeles Times/USC Poll.

      =====

      Come on.

      There needs to be a cap and reform NOW.

    • California Water agencies would be taxed under state bill – Retail water districts would pay a new tax under proposed state legislation to fund water-related supply, environmental and recreation projects. The size of the tax has yet to be calculated, but it would be significant.
      A hearing is scheduled May 4 for the bill, Senate Bill 34, in the California Senate's Governance and Finance committee. Since the bill would impose a tax, it requires two-thirds approval by the Legislature.
      SB 34 was introduced in the Natural Resources and Water committee by state Sen. Joe Simitian, D-Palo Alto. The influential legislator is perhaps best known as the author of California's hands-free cellphone law. The water tax bill was approved April 12 by the committee on a 5-3 vote.
      Simitian is offering SB 34 as an alternative to an $11.4 billion water bond measure the Legislature recently placed on the ballot for November 2012. The bill doesn't specify the level of taxes but is expected to be revised later to do so.
      Backers say the bill pays for necessary upgrades to California's water infrastructure, especially in the Sacramento River delta, which showed its inadequacy during the state's recently ended drought.
      Opponents say SB 34 doesn't give specifics about where the money will be spent. They include water districts around the state and the Association of California Water Agencies, a statewide organization of water agencies.
      "It would force water agencies to pay a steep new water tax with no direct benefit to those who pay," said Phil Rosentrater, spokesman for Western Municipal Water District in Riverside County. The district covers 850,000 people concentrated along the Interstate 15 corridor, including Lake Elsinore, Wildomar and parts of Murrieta and Temecula.
      The San Diego County Water Authority, a wholesaler whose member retail agencies are subject to paying the tax, is scheduled to vote Thursday on a recommendation to oppose the bill.

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      Read it all

      There is NO guarantee that the money would go to improve the Sacramento Delta and improve water delivery to Southern California.

      So, this is an easy no for the Cal GOP.

      The bill requires a two-thirds vote in the affirmative and I doubt one vote from a Republican.

    • California Legislature seeking to halt DMV notices to buy time on budget – To buy negotiating time for Gov. Jerry Brown's tax extensions, lawmakers are seeking to halt Department of Motor Vehicles notices for drivers whose vehicle registration expires in July and later.

      Under current law, DMV must send notices at least 60 days before a renewal due date. That means the department is required to notify motorists by May 2 if their vehicle registrations are up for renewal on July 1.

      Because lawmakers haven't agreed to extend the 2009 vehicle license fee increase, drivers are poised to receive a 0.5 percentage point reduction in their VLF starting July 1. The fee is currently a 1.15 percent tax on the estimated value of a vehicle. On a $15,000 car, the difference in rates would be $75.

      Democrats still hope to persuade Republicans to extend the higher VLF rate beyond June. But they don't want drivers to receive renewal notices quoting lower VLF rates now, only to have DMV ask them for more money later this year. That would frustrate drivers and likely undermine support for Brown's tax plan.

      So the Assembly approved a bill Thursday that directs DMV to delay sending renewal notices starting with drivers whose registrations are due July 1. That buys at least another month of time for Democrats to negotiate with Republicans on maintaining higher VLF rates. Democrats say the money is needed to avoid deep cuts in local law enforcement programs.

      ======

      Political machinations to capture more tax revenue.

      Good grief!

  • Polling,  Tea Party

    Poll Watch: Tea Party Unfavorables Reach New High



    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    About half of Americans, 47%, now have an unfavorable image of the Tea Party movement, the highest since it emerged on the national scene.

    Gallup began tracking Americans’ views of the Tea Party in March 2010, when 37% had a favorable and 40% an unfavorable view. Those views stayed roughly the same through January of this year, but have now turned somewhat more negative. The April 20-23 USA Today/Gallup poll finds favorable opinions of the Tea Party movement dropping to 33%, from 39% in January, and unfavorable opinions rising to 47% from 42%. Twenty percent of Americans say they haven’t heard of the Tea Party or have no opinion of it.

    This is not surprising to me, especially since Gallup’s tracking is about one year too late. The Tea Party first began prior to April 15, 2009 and here is one of my first posts on the Tea Party.

    The GOP took over the House of Representatives thanks to the Tea Party in 2010, after having lost control in 2006. Now, the Democrats and organized LEFT have been able to counter and paint some in the Tea Party as either racists, white supremacists or right wing nuts of some sort.

    So, you have two factors depressing the poll numbers: lack of fear of TOTAL LEFT control of Congress and the Presidency AND organized opposition to an unorganized and amorphous Tea Party.

    You ask whether the Tea Party then has any future utility? Or will it be rolled in part into the GOP?

    The answer is probably a little yes on both.

    The Tea Party movement has no official status as an organization or association. It is not officially connected with the Republican Party. Still, Tea Party candidates who ran for the House and Senate in last fall’s midterm elections for the most part ran as Republicans. And Tea Party candidates who were elected to the House are now making their voices heard in Congress as they pressure House Republican leadership to take strong conservative positions on such issues as cutting government spending and reducing the deficit.

    While Americans who identify as Republicans and conservatives clearly tend to be favorably predisposed toward the Tea Party, these attitudes are by no means universal, underscoring the challenges House GOP leaders face as they try to reflect the interests of their constituencies.

    The views of Republicans split 60% positively to 24% negatively toward the Tea Party; conservatives’ views split 56% to 29%. Substantial majorities of Democrats and liberals view the Tea Party unfavorably. Views of the Tea Party became more negative between January and April among both Republicans and independents; there was very little change in Democrats’ already negative views.

    So, what are the implications?

    The precise influence of the Tea Party movement on U.S. politics is difficult to pinpoint, given its vague shape and lack of any type of official organization. The Tea Party, however, did have a significant influence on last year’s midterm elections. Candidates who were supported by voters who identified with the Tea Party made a significant impact on primary outcomes, and in a number of instances won election to the House and Senate.

    Now observers continue to ponder the impact of those elections on the Republican Party, as these newly elected members attempt to follow through on their campaign promises and pressure House leadership to take stronger conservative positions on key issues.

    The data reviewed here demonstrate the nature of the political challenges Republican congressional leadership faces in responding to Tea Party-supported members. A majority of rank-and-file Republicans nationwide give the Tea Party favorable ratings, but a sizable minority say their opinion is unfavorable or do not classify themselves as supporters.

    Further, the overall image of the Tea Party among all Americans has become substantially more negative than positive over the last several months, which could weaken its perceived clout among GOP congressional leaders. Americans’ negative views of the Tea Party contrast with their much more balanced views of the Republican Party, measured at 44% favorable and 47% unfavorable in the same April 20-23 USA Today/Gallup poll.

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for April 28th on 07:41

    These are my links for April 28th from 07:41 to 14:41:

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Nevada GOP Poll Watch: Romney 24% Trump 16% Gingrich 11% Huckabee 10%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Mitt Romney – 64% Vs. 23%
    • Mike Huckabee – 61% Vs. 26%
    • Newt Gingrich – 61% Vs. 21%
    • Sarah Palin – 65% Vs. 26%
    • Donald Trump – 47% Vs. 40%

    But, Mitt Romney’s lead is declining as Donald Trump has entered the field.

    Mitt Romney continues to be the early favorite to win the Republican race in Nevada next year, as he did in 2008. But his support in the state is on the decline, suggesting he may not be able to take a repeat victory for granted.

    This is the fourth look we’ve taken at the GOP contest in Nevada and Romney’s support there has been on a steady decline. Last July he was at 34% in the state and he maintained that 34% standing in an October poll of Republican voters. But in January he dropped to 31% and now he’s at this 24% level. It’s no coincidence that Romney’s loss of support coincides with Pawlenty vaulting from 1% in January to now 8% in the Nevada polling. The two appeal to a similar type of voter and generally any time we’ve seen Pawlenty gain we’ve seen a corresponding Romney fall.

    Mitt Romney has to be considered the favorite in the Nevada caucuses. He is Mormon and there is a large population of LDS voters who WILL march to the caucuses to vote for one of their own. Donald Trump will fade as the weeks meander towards summer.

    The GOP Caucus preference:

    • Romney – 24%
    • Trump – 16%
    • Gingrich – 11%
    • Huckabee 10%
    • Palin – 8%
    • Pawlenty – 8%
    • Bachmann – 7%
    • Paul – 5%

    Yeah, I would be shocked if Romney did not win Nevada. 

    So, let’s see how it breaks out:

    • Iowa = Huckabee (if he runs)
    • New Hampshire = Romney (but by how much?)
    • Nevada = Romney
    • South Carolina = Huckabee (if he runs)
    • Florida (where the real race starts)
    • Super Tuesday – ?

    The entire poll is here.

  • President 2012

    President 2012 Pennsylvania Poll Watch: Obama Approval at 42% Vs. 53% Disapproval

    According to the latest Quinnipiac Poll.

    President Barack Obama’s job approval rating in Pennsylvania is a negative 42 – 53 percent, an all-time low and a major drop from his 51 – 44 percent approval February 17, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Pennsylvania voters say 52 – 42 percent he does not deserve a second term, his worst showing on that measure also. In a mythical matchup, he gets 40 percent to an unnamed Republican challenger’s 41 percent in the 2012 presidential race.

    In a marginally important key battleground state, the GOP must be licking its chops that the President is polling so poorly. If Pennsylvania is going against Obama without EVEN a GOP nominee, he is in serious trouble there.