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Poll Watch: The Rise of the Independent Voter
There has been much discussion as of late as to the declining Republican Party and its demise as a “regional” party. Of course, this is bull and Flap has shown you why.
Now, Mark Blumenthal over at Pollster has his latest Party ID Chart.
- Democrats – 36.7%
- Independents – 33.5%
- Republicans – 26.4%
And, here are the most recent trends:
The most striking feature of the above charts?The most striking feature of the chart is not the drop in Republicans, but rather the increase in independent identification. The decline in Republican ID is a nearly parallel decline for the Democrats. That trend is not surprising, as partisan identification often increases slightly during the last few months of an election year and fade afterward. However, note that the Pew Research report labels the magnitude of increase among independents as “noteworthy” as it appears much greater than what they observed in 2005.
Why more independent voters?
Well, for one, why register with a party when in some states you can vote in whichever primary election you wish.
Or, perhaps American voters are tired of labels.
In any case, the majority of elections will be won be appealing to the independents, on an election by election basis as their numbers increase. Judging success of a political party by its either increasing or decreasing registration numbers may not be that important any longer, especially since both major parties are shrinking.
Technorati Tags: GOP, Democrats, Independent Voters
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Believe It Or Not: The GOP is NOT a Regional Party
The LEFT and Democrats like to portray the GOP as a regional only party but it just NOT so. Look at the map above of the Obama victory over McCain just a few months ago.Jim Geraghty does the analysis.
Discussing the 2010 elections for the House of Representatives with David Freddoso and Mark Hemingway earlier today, we noticed that the “the Republican Party is becoming a regional party” argument is nonsense — even though it’s widely repeated.
The AP, today: “With Sen. Arlen Specter’s switch to the Democrats, the Republican Party is increasingly at risk of being viewed as a mostly Southern and solidly conservative party, an identity that might take years to overcome.”
Er, no. The South amounts to 44 percent of the Republican House delegation, which means 56 percent has to come from somewhere else.
And that’s just looking at House districts. Examine these charts from CQ. McCain won 193 of the nation’s 435 congressional districts, including 49 that split their tickets to elect Democrats to the U.S. House. There are currently 178 Republicans in the House of Representatives. So a total of 227 House districts voted for either McCain, or a Republican House member, or both — in what everyone would agree was a fantastic year for Democrats.
Even if Republicans won every House seat in the South they would only have 131 seats — leaving 96 other districts across the country.
Even in their shrunken minority, Republicans hold 19 House seats in California, eight in Ohio, seven in Michigan, seven in Illinois, seven in Pennsylvania, five in New Jersey, five in Missouri, three in Minnesota, three in New York, three in Washington state, and the one seat in Delaware.
And it works in the reverse, too — Democrats actually represent more House seats in Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Virginia and North Carolina than Republicans. Neither party is as regional as conventional wisdom suggests.
Let’s look at Flap’s Congressional district that was won by Obama last November:
Yet, long-time incumbent GOP Represenative Elton Gallegly won by a comfortable 16 points in a down GOP year.
The LEFT and Democrats like to blow smoke and hope it catches fire.
Now, the GOP does have a New York and New England problem but not one that marginalizes the national party.
Sorry, Democrats.
Technorati Tags: GOP, Democrats, Elton Gallegly
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Poll Watch: Generic Congressional Ballot Now TIED Between GOP and Democrats
This is what the latest NPR poll says.
But when asked whether they’d vote for the Republican or Democratic congressional candidate if the 2010 elections were held today, the result was a tie: 42-42.
“There’s concern about the spending plans and other paths that Obama and Democrats in Congress are taking, so I think you’re seeing a little bit more move toward a balance,” Bolger said. “People still want the president to succeed. He’s got a 59 percent approval rating. He has a lot of intensity, particularly from his base. But that doesn’t mean that people want one side to have a blank check.”
Obviously, the American public is not happy with the Democrat’s dominance. But, the poll points out the dominance of the Democrats on a number of issues.
There is some hope for the GOP – but still a long way to come back.
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Poll watch: Generic Congressional Ballot – Democrats Lead GOP by ONLY 2 Points
Since the November 2008 elections the GOP has certainly been polling better.
After an intense partisan debate over the newly passed $787 billion economic stimulus bill, Republicans and Democrats remain almost even in this week’s edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot.
Rasmussen Reports national telephone surveys found that 41% of voters said they would vote for their district’s Democratic candidate while 39% said they would choose the Republican.
The principled stand by the Congressional Republicans over the Obama/Democrat Economic Stimulus Bill may be bearing some electoral fruit.
Stay tuned…..
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Republican Party in Free Fall – Number of Democrats Increases for Third Straight Month
Partisan trends do not look good for the Grand Old Party.The number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats inched up again in December to 41.6%. That’s up two-tenths of a point since November and the third straight monthly increase in the number of Democrats.
Only once since Rasmussen Reports began tracking this data on a monthly basis in 2002 has the number of Democrats been higher. In May, as the Obama-Clinton primary battle neared its conclusion, 41.7% of Americans said they were Democrats.
At the same time, the number of Republicans declined a full percentage point from 33.8% in November to 32.8% in December. That’s the lowest number of Republicans since August. The number claiming allegiance to the GOP peaked in September at 34.4% as the party enjoyed a convention bounce and Sarah Palin was picked as the party’s Vice Presidential nominee.
The number not affiliated with either major party inched up from 24.7% in November to 25.6% in December.
These figures are not a shock but will be food for thought for the next Repuiblican National Chairman. How ill the party increase its numbers without alienating its conservative base, driving them to the not affiliated column.
During the Goldwater/Reagan era there was a coherent message. This will be the challenge for a revived GOP post Bush – message and its deliverance within a changing demographic landscape.
Stay tuned……
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No GOP Roll Over Beethoven for Democrat/Obama Economic Stimulus Package
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell speaks during a press conference on Capitol Hill in November 2008 in Washington, DC.
Looks like “The Idiot of the Highest Order”, Senate GOP Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is finally growing a pair.Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) voiced skepticism today about the emerging economic stimulus plan, applying a brake to Democratic plans to quickly pass up to $850 billion in spending and tax cuts soon after President-elect Barack Obama’s Jan. 20 inauguration.
“As of right now, Americans are left with more questions than answers about this unprecedented government spending, and I believe the taxpayers deserve to know a lot more about where it will be spent before we consider passing it,” McConnell said in a statement, which will be publicly issued later today.
No more bailouts until there is a clear outline as to the Obama economic plan and the Congress decides what the hell it is doing besides throwing cheap money at a perceived problem.
41 votes go a long way, now don’t they?
Technorati Tags: Mitch McConnell
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Gallup Poll: African Americans as Conservative as Republicans on Some Moral Issues Including Gay Marriage
An interesting poll just out by the Gallup shop.Only 31% of black Democrats in America say homosexual relations are morally acceptable, roughly the same as the 30% of Republicans who agree, while very much different from the 61% of nonblack Democrats who say homosexual relations are morally acceptable.
And, this position on the issue of gay politics propelled California’s Proposition 8 which restored the traditional defintion of marriage to the California Constitution to victory in November.
Exit-poll results after that vote on Nov. 4 suggested that black California voters had overwhelmingly voted in favor of the amendment, while overall, Democrats in California overwhelmingly voted against it — essentially confirming the national attitude structure apparent from Gallup’s analysis.
This explains the reluctance of Barack Obama to ACTIVELY campaign against Proposition 8 in California and to state emphatically he supports marriage between a man and a woman. How does this translate into Obama’s public policy?
Obama has put homosexual politics on the backburner and his staff have stated the “don’t ask don’t tell” military position may ONLY be evaluated in a year or so.
Homosexual organizations wish to bring the gay marriage issue back to the California voters in 2010 should the California Supreme Court fail to overturn Propsoition 8 (which they will). With this poll, California gay marriage proponents have a long way to go.
More from Gallup:
Technorati Tags: Democrats, GOP, Gay Marriage
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Day By Day by Chris Muir November 23, 2008 – Rock Em Sock Em Politics Tonight Only!
Who might the fall guy be?Why, President Bush, of course, and all of the RINO’s are running around blaming social conservatives for the loss on election day to Barack Obama and the Democrats.
Mark Steyn and Karl Rove have the RIGHT analysis.
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Technorati Tags: GOP, Karl Rove, Day By Day, Mark Steyn, Democrats
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The State of the Race For 2008 – US Senate – Dems 56 GOP 42 Ties 2
Political graphic from Electoral-Vote.Com
The projected make-up of the United States Senate after yesterday’s elections is:- Democrats – 56 seats
- Republicans – 42 seats (Georgia will possibly be going to a run-off election subsequent to posting of graphic)
- Two seats (Oregon, Minnesota) could swing to either side (currently the GOP is winning both seats)
The number 41 is the important one for the GOP. 41 votes gives them a filibuster so they can stop especially heinous legislation.
However, there is talk that President Obama could offer administration positions to moderate GOP Senators, Arlene Specter, R-PA or yesterday re-elected Susan Collins, R-Maine. Democrat Governors in those states would appoint a Democrat replacement Senator and swing the balance toward the democrats.
44 Senate seats is a much better number for the GOP and then there is the question of independent Senator Joe Lieberman, but that is another post.
For now, Democrats have picked up five Senate seats but he Democrats fell several votes short of the 60-vote filibuster-proof Senate that they were seeking and also failed to get rid of a key Senate target: Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky:
- Colorado
- New Hampshire
- New Mexico
- North Carolina
- Virginia
Stay tuned as vote counting continues.
Technorati Tags: U.S. Senate, GOP, Democrats
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Day By Day by Chris Muir November 1, 2008 – Machines Don’t Know
There has been alot of spin coming from the MSM and the Obama campaign that this race is OVER before Tuesday’s vote.If a candidate is winning by a comfortable margin the cynic in Flap asks why you would risk a backlash or under performance by your own base with this strategy? Is Obama counting on a “depressed” GOP turnout to help himself or the down ticket races?
Flap does not think the GOP renown GOTV (Get Out the Vote) operation is in depressed mode and the Republican base will turn out. Now, whether this is enough – we will see on Tuesday.
The race is not over until the votes are counted.
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Technorati Tags: Day By Day, Barack Obama, GOP, Democrats