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President 2012 New Hampshire GOP Poll Watch: Romney 27% Trump 21% Huckabee 12% Gingrich 12%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Mitt Romney’s still the clear early front runner to take the Republican primary in New Hampshire next year but for the first time in our polling of the race PPP finds someone within single digits of him…Donald Trump.
If Trump actually run 21% of New Hampshire GOP voters say they’d vote for him, compared to 27% for Romney. The key to Trump’s relatively strong showing? He does well with birthers and Tea Partiers, two groups he has seemed to actively court with his public comments of late. 42% of primary voters firmly say they do not believe Barack Obama was born in the United States to 35% who believe that he was and 23% who aren’t sure. Trump leads Romney 22-21 with the birther crowd, but Romney holds the overall lead because he’s up by a much wider margin with the folks who dismiss the birther theory.
Trump also leads Romney 23-21 with the Republican primary voters who consider themselves to be Tea Party members but that’s only 30% of the electorate and Romney’s up by a good margin with the folks who don’t identify with that movement.
If you take Trump out of the picture Romney maintains the customary wide lead he has shown in most polling of the state. On the standard Republican primary question we ask in every state Romney gets 31% to 15% for Mike Huckabee, 13% for Newt Gingrich, 10% for Sarah Palin and Ron Paul, 4% for Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty, and 2% for Haley Barbour.
Yeah, but don’t get to excited Donald Trump or anti-Romney fans. Mitt still owns New Hampshire and nobody does particularly well there except him.
I suspect most candidates, when the field becomes more defined, will ignore New Hampshire or try for a second/third place finish before moving on to primary elections that will matter, South Carolina, Nevada and Florida.
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President 2012: Mike Huckabee Wins York County, South Carolina GOP Straw Poll
Former Arkansas Gov. and potential GOP presidential candidate Mike Huckabee gestures as he addresses students at the business school at Mississippi College in Clinton, Miss., Monday, March 28, 2011The straw poll was held at the York County Republican Party convention.
Mike Huckabee won a 2012 presidential straw poll conducted in a key South Carolina county Saturday.
The informal vote was the first of many upcoming straw polls taking place this month at grassroots GOP gatherings across South Carolina, one of the four crucial early voting states in the presidential nominating process.
Huckabee’s win Saturday occurred at the York County Republican Party convention. The former Arkansas governor won York County in the state’s 2008 presidential primary despite losing the overall contest to Sen. John McCain. York encompasses parts of the Charlotte, North Carolina suburbs and is one of the most populous counties in South Carolina.
Huckabee, who has shown no signs of mounting a repeat presidential bid in the state, nevertheless won the vote with 23 percent of the 152 ballots cast, local GOP officials told CNN. He was followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who captured 11 percent of the vote. Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann finished third with 10 percent.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney netted 8 percent to finish fourth. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and reality television star Donald Trump tied for fifth, with 7 percent.
A big Uh Oh for Mitt Romney who finished fourth.
Does anyone think that Mike Huckabee just MAY be considering a run for the Presidency now?
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President 2012 Poll Watch: Mike Huckabee UP and Mitt Romney NOT So Much
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee who both ran for the GOP Presidential nomination in 2008
Compared to the race for the Presidency, 2008.On Monday we’ll release numbers on the Republican primary for President in Florida. This is a state where it’s generally assumed that Mitt Romney is the favorite, because he did pretty well there in 2008. A deeper look comparing how Romney did in various states in 2008 to how he’s polling now though suggests that’s a flawed assumption.
Over the course of the last five months PPP has polled Republican voters in 16 different states that had primaries or caucuses while Romney was still in the race for President in 2008. Comparing the support Romney received then to the support he has now does not present a pretty picture for his chances at winning the nomination. On average he is doing 14 points worse than he did in his first campaign. These numbers suggest that little of the support he received in 2008 was ‘hard’ and that with a different field of candidates he could have difficulty getting the same people who voted for him the first time around to do it again.
Here are Romney’s poll numbers:
- Romney’s support has declined from his 2008 share of the vote in 14 out of 16 states.
- Romney improved in two early states: New Hampshire and South Carolina.
- Romney’s drop is more severe in caucus states but if you discard the caucus states of Iowa, Maine, Nevada, Colorado and Minnesota Romney still has an average drop of 8.5 points in 11 primary states.
Mike Huckabee though is doing better and here are his numbers:
Mike Huckabee unlike Mitt Romney has had support rise since 2008. Maybe Huck should consider running since he had been leading the polls for quite a while now and he has done little or no campaigning.
- Huckabee is doing better in 11 of the 16 polled states except the early states of Iowa and South Carolina. Huckabee is polling less in Minnesota, Tennessee and Missouri.
- There is no difference between caucus and primary election states like Romney.
So, what does this mean?
Simply put, Mitt Romney has been losing support since 2008 and Mike Huckabee has been gaining it.
However, there may be a difference in the polling between now and in 2008 with more candidates to dilute votes away from Romney and Huckabee in 2012 than in 2008. Nevertheless, Huckabee is doing better than Romney before either candidate has formally announced.
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President 2012 Ohio GOP Poll Watch: Mike Huckabee Leading
According to the latest Strategic National Poll.
- Huckabee – 24.49%
- Gingrich – 21.94%
- Palin – 16.33%
- Romney – 13.78%
- Bachmann – 5.61%
- Pawlenty – 3.57%
- Santorum – 2.04%
- Barbour – 1.53%
- Huntsman – 1.53%
- Undecided – 9.18%
Ohio is a must win state for the GOP in the Electoral College against President Obama. Again, Mike Huckabee who has made little or no effort to declare himself a Presidential candidate is leading Mitt Romney who will be running.
Again, Sarah Palin trails but this time in the middle of the pack.
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President 2012 Florida Poll Watch: Obama 46% Vs Romney 44% – Within the Margin of Error
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Job approval Vs Disapproval:
- President Obama: 48% Vs. 47% (45% Vs. 49% in December 2010)
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Mitt Romney – 39% Vs. 39%
- Mike Huckabee – 40% vs. 39%
- Jeb Bush – 44% Vs. 44%
- Newt Gingrich 32% Vs. 48%
- Sarah Palin – 32% Vs. 60%
- Rudy Giuliani – 37% vs. 46%
Head to Head:
- Obama – 46% Vs. Romney – 44%
- Obama – 50% Vs. Huckabee – 43%
- Obama – 50% Vs. Gingrich – 42%
- Obama – 48% Vs. Bush – 44%
- Obama – 48% Vs. Giuliani – 42%
- Obama – 52% Vs. Palin – 39%
Fianlly, a good poll for Mitt Romney. But, Mike Huckabee is hanging in there and may give him pause as Huck decides whether to run or not.
Another disastrous poll for Sarah Palin (60% unfavorables) as she fades from being considered a serious candidate for the Presidency in 2012.
Interesting that former Florida Governor Jeb Bush does not do any better than Mitt Romney in this poll.
The GOP NEEDS to win Florida in order to beat President Obama in the Electoral College. It appears the tried and true candidates of Huckabee and/or Romney may very well provide the opportunity.
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President 2012 New Jersey Poll Watch: Mike Huckabee Running Even with President Obama
According to the latest Farleigh Dickinson Poll.
For the GOP Nomination:
- Mike Huckabee – 21%
- Mitt Romney – 20%
- Sarah Palin – 12%
- Chris Christie – 10%
- Newt Gingrich – 10%
- Tim Pawlenty – 5%
Head to Head with the President:
- Obama – 46% Vs. Huckabee – 46%
- Obama – 44% Vs. Romney – 43%
- Obama – 46% Vs. Christie – 40%
- Obama – 54% Vs. Palin – 34%
- Obama – 52% Vs. Gingrich – 37%
- Obama – 48% Vs. Pawlenty – 34%
Among independent voters:
Christie also shows appeal among independent voters. While Palin runs behind Obama 34%-52% among independents, Christie runs ahead of Obama with independents 43%-40%. Similarly, Gingrich loses to the president 40%-45% among independents, and Pawlenty comes in behind by 33%-41%. “Christie can appeal to voters beyond the party base in a way that some other big-name Republicans can’t and won’t,” Woolley added.
An interesting poilling result in what is generally considered a deep blue state. Mike Huckabee again is polling well whereas Sarah Palin is NOT.
I wonder if Mike Huckabee might be reconsidering his seeming ambivalence to running for the Presidency?
Exit question: How well would Mike Huckabee poll if Sarah Palin declared she was NOT a canddate?
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President 2012 Michigan GOP Poll Watch: Romney 26% Huckabee 20% Gingrich 15% Palin 12%
According to the latest PPP Poll:
- 26% Romney
- 20% Huckabee
- 15% Gingrich
- 12% Palin
- 7% Paul
- 5% Daniels
- 3% Pawlenty
- 3% Walker
But, Romney is not polling as well as iin 2008 – in a state where his father, George Romney was once Governor and where Mitt was raised.
On the surface Romney’s lead is good news for him. But in 2008 he took 39% in the primary in the state while Huckabee got only 16%. So compared to then Romney is down by 13 points while Huckabee’s improved by four. That sort of trend in Romney’s numbers compared to the support he got in his first bid is becoming common place in our polls.
Romney’s weakness continues to be with voters who describe themsevlves as ‘very conservative.’ With moderates he gets a strong 39% and with ‘somewhat conservative’ voters he’s at a respectable 28%. But with ‘very conservative’ folks he just ties Huckabee at 20%. More over his favorability with them is only 63% compared to 83% for Palin, 71% for Huckabee, and even 65% for Gingrich. Romney’s weak standing with the far right is his greatest hurdle to potentially winning the nomination.
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Herman Cain, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty
President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Mike Huckabee Continues to Lead in Positive Intensity Tracking
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Mike Huckabee continues to generate the strongest favorable reactions from Republicans who recognize him, with a Positive Intensity Score of 26. Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann follow, with Positive Intensity Scores of 20. Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain are at 19, and Sarah Palin is at 18.
Isn’t it interesting the two relative new candidates in Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain are polling so well? Also, Mitch Daniels scores rose. Seems Republicans like the prospect of a new group of candidates.
Although Tim Pawlenty announced the formation of a presidential exploratory committee last week, there was no change in his positioning in Gallup’s March 14-27 polling compared with the previous two-week rolling average.
Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels’ and Romney’s Positive Intensity Scores each rose by five points from two weeks ago — Daniels’ from 10 to 15, and Romney’s from 15 to 20. This week’s update puts Romney in a tie for second place behind Huckabee for the first time.
This marks the first report on Republicans’ views of Herman Cain, a former restaurant association executive from Georgia, who has formed a presidential exploratory committee. Cain is not well known among Republicans — 21% recognize his name — but generates enthusiasm among those who do know him, giving him an overall Positive Intensity Score of 19.
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President 2012: Barbour and Huckabee Sitting in a Tree….K I S S I N G?
GOP Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee
Politico has a story this morning about Mike Huckabee and Haley Barbour getting together in Mississippi for some type of meeting – implying it is about the 2012 Presidential race.Mike Huckabee hasn’t publicly declared whether he’ll run for president, but one likely Republican hopeful is already moving to woo the former Arkansas governor.
Representatives of Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour have been trying to set up a time with Huckabee aides for the two Southern governors and longtime friends to meet, POLITICO has learned.
Both were in Mississippi on Monday, but aides to both Republicans were cagey and declined to confirm whether the pair sat down together.
It’s a delicate topic for the two prospective candidates. Barbour wants to be respectful of Huckabee’s decision-making process and not be seen as pressuring the 2008 winner of the Iowa caucuses. And Huckabee, despite doing little of what he himself has said would be necessary to mount a campaign, wants to keep the possibility of running open and isn’t quite ready to play kingmaker.
But for all their aides’ coyness, the two principals have been openly flirting with one another in recent weeks.
Well, there is every indication that Mike Huckabee will NOT be a candidate for the Presidency in 2012 for various reasons and that Haley Barbour WILL be. With those facts out of the way, then why wouldn’t Barbour a southern governor try to solicit the support of Huckabee.
But, why the leak?
Does Mitt Romney feel threatened? (as he should, particularly with regards to Iowa and South Carolina)
Or, is Barbour, a shrewd political operative, trying to force Huckabee out and out quickly?
Could be either or both – but it won’t make any difference because Haley Barbour is going nowhere with Michele Bachmann in the race. She will win Iowa, Romney wins New Hampshire and unless Huckabee, Christie or Daniels runs, Romney will probably be the Bob Dole of 2012, losing to Obama by 6 points.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Mike Huckabee Maintains Strength Across Issue-Based Voter Segments
According to the latest Gallup Poll.As was the case in February, Republicans’ choice of most important political issue is related to their support for potential Republican presidential candidates.
Mike Huckabee, who is the overall leader among Republicans for the 2012 nomination at this point, leads or ties for the lead among three of the four issue-based GOP groups. He slightly lags Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin among national security- and foreign policy-focused Republicans.
Romney, second overall in GOP 2012 preferences, ties for or is in first place among two out of the four groups, and is in second place among another group.
And, what are the issues for Republicans?
It’s government spending/debt and the economy – not a shocker.Republicans continue to say government spending and power is the issue of greatest political importance to them (38%), followed closely by business and the economy (32%). Social and moral issues and foreign policy each have constituencies, but are far less important within the party. Republicans’ ratings of these priorities are not substantially changed from a month ago. The lack of change in the perceived importance of foreign affairs is notable given the recent high-profile U.S. military involvement in Libya.
Maybe Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels has a point about a “truce” on the social issues, since it does not appear to be a mighty concern for Republican voters? Of course, neither does national security and Libya.
Americans are concerned about their livelihood, their taxes and the fact they know many who are unemployed or under employed.
So, what does this poll mean – the bottom line?
As was the case in mid-February, the two biggest issues for Republican voters nationwide are government power and spending, and the economy — in that order. The rank-order of these issue segments appears to be generally stable, with only minor shifts since last month’s update.
Republican front-runner Huckabee maintains his relative position of strength across all four issue groups. He dominates among social issues voters and leads or ties other potential candidates in the two biggest Republican issue groups — those focused on government spending and power, and those focused on the economy.
Romney maintains a first- or second-place position among all segments except social issues voters. Palin appears to have a relative weakness among the largest segment of Republicans — those who are focused on the government.
Bachmann, who has the second-highest Positive Intensity Score of any potential Republican candidate at this point, does slightly better among that small group of Republicans most focused on foreign affairs. Tim Pawlenty, in the news last week after he established a presidential exploratory committee, does not do exceptionally well among any of the four issue groups. Haley Barbour, who is also reportedly giving serious consideration to a run for the GOP nomination, does best among Republicans focused on business and the economy.