• Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Mike Huckabee 43% Vs. Barack Obama 43%

    April 12, 2011 /

    According to the latest Rasmussen Poll.

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval

    President Barack Obama – 46% Vs. 54%

    Head to Head:

    • Huckabee – 43% Vs. Obama – 43%
    • Obama – 45% Vs. Romney – 40%
    • Obama – 48% Vs. Palin – 38%
    • Obama – 49% Vs. Gingrich – 37%
    • Obama – 45% Vs. Pawlenty – 35%
    • Obama – 45% Vs. Daniels 32%

    For a non-candidate candidate, Mike Huckabee continues to poll well against President Obama. The ONLY announced candidate Tim Pawlenty is behind by 10 points and Mitt Romney who has announced a Presidential Exploratory Committee is behind by 5.

    But, it is still very early although President Obama looks, at least now, vulnerable.

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Mitt Romney is NOT Generating Strong Political Intensity

    April 12, 2011 /


    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who Monday announced the formation of a presidential exploratory committee, is among the most recognized Republicans who are thought to be most likely to run for president in 2012. At the same time, his Positive Intensity Score among Republicans nationwide does not stand out.

    The fact is Mitt Romney is an old face/POL where the GOP wants someone new, who can beat President Barack Obama. Of course, Romney is not going to poll well, when there is a chance of a “NEW” candidate emerging.

    Let’s look at the Gallup Poll graph that shows the relationship between positive intensity and recognition.

    So, who among the candidates on the right side of the graph, has polled well and has decent name recognition? That would be Mike Huckabee.

    Romney’s major challenge as he gears up for his presumed presidential run is to generate enthusiasm among potential GOP voters. Romney is in the enviable position of being widely known among Republicans nationwide, which helps him in traditional trial-heat ballot tests among Republicans. But to date, Republicans who know him are not highly likely to show positive intensity in their views of him.

    Romney has so far taken a low-key approach to his candidacy, avoiding the national spotlight and sticking to visits in the crucial early primary states such as New Hampshire, where he filmed his new “exploratory committee” YouTube video. He thus has the possibility to increase the positive intensity with which Republicans view him as he ramps up his campaign efforts in the months ahead. Visitors to Romney’s new website see pictures and video of the former governor dressed in shirt sleeves, no doubt in an attempt to soften his stiff “suit and tie” image and increase the connection between him and potential voters.

    Meanwhile, Republicans continue to feel most positive about Mike Huckabee, despite the fact that he has no exploratory committee and has avoided any statements suggesting that he is going to run for the presidency.

    I think that Mitt Romney could win the GOP nomination and perhaps beat President Obama. Romney is a “safe” candidate and lackluster at best.

    Mike Huckabee, on the other hand, is a likeable character that would fire up the GOP base and would give President Obama a race in the key battleground states. But, will he run?

  • Barack Obama,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Santorum,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Pennsylvania Poll Watch: Huckabee 45% Vs. Obama 44% – Romney 43% Vs. Obama 42%

    April 12, 2011 /

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • President Barack Obama – 42% Vs. 52%

    Pennsylvania is looking like a potential problem for the incumbent President. Obama won Pennsylvania in 2008 by double digits.

    Obama has two major problems in the state: independents and white Democrats. A majority of independents disapprove of him- 54% give him bad marks to 39% who think he’s doing a good job. More concerning is that his approval rating with Democrats is only 68%, well below the 81% we find for him nationally. He’s doing fine with black Democrats- an 86% approval rating- but with white Democrats he’s at only a 64/27 spread.

    Those numbers suggest that a lot of the voters who fueled Hillary Clinton’s primary victory in the state and then sucked it up and voted for Obama in the general election the last time around haven’t been real thrilled with what they’ve seen from him so far and could split their tickets next year- if the Republicans put up someone who’s seen as a reasonable alternative.

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Mike Huckabee – 37% Vs. 43%
    • Mitt Romney – 31% Vs. 41%
    • Rick Santorum – 37% Vs. 47%
    • Newt Gingrich 25% Vs. 54%
    • Sarah Palin – 33% Vs. 61%

    Head to Head:

    • Romney – 43% Vs. Obama – 42%
    • Huckabee – 45% Vs. Obama – 44%
    • Obama – 45% Vs. Santorum – 43%
    • Obama – 47% Vs. Gingrich – 39%
    • Obama – 50% Vs. Palin – 39%

    I have earlier selected Pennsylvania as a key battleground state that the GOP must win in order to beat President Obama. This poll is a good start, and indicates that at this early stage Pennsylvania is in play, provided the GOP nominates the right candidate.

    The entire poll is here.

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Trump 19% Huckabee 19% Palin 12% Romney 11% Gingrich 11%

    April 12, 2011 /

    According to the latest CNN/Opinion Research Poll.

    The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted by telephone, with 824 people questioned. The survey’s overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

    • Donald Trump – 19%
    • Mike Huckabee – 19%
    • Sarah Palin – 12%
    • Mitt Romney – 11%
    • Newt Gingrich – 11%
    • Ron Paul – 7%
    • Michele Bachmann – 5%

    So, where are Donald Trump’s votes coming from – meaning at whose expense?

    Trump jumped from 10 percent in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted last month, with Romney dropping from 18 percent to 11 percent.

    “Are Republicans switching from Romney to Trump? Some are, but it’s a lot more complicated than that, as you would expect with 11 potential hats in the ring,” adds Holland. “Only one in five Trump supporters say that Romney would be their second choice. It looks like Trump pulls as much support from Gingrich and Palin as from Romney, and Romney’s support would go down even if Trump were not in the list of potential candidates.”

    Not necessarily a good poll for Mitt Romney who earlier announced a Presidential exploratory committee, Tim Pawlenty who has already announced and Newt Gingrich who has been pseudo-running for over a year. Sarah Palin will likely not run and has been making no moves to do so.

    But, who do Republican voters really want?

    According to the survey, more than seven in ten Republicans say that regardless of whom they would support, they’d like to see Huckabee run for the party’s presidential nomination, with two-thirds saying the same thing about Romney.

    But that figure drops to 56 percent for Trump, with 43 percent saying they don’t want to see him run. By a narrower 53 to 47 percent margin, they would like to see Palin make a bid for the White House, and by a 51 to 45 percent margin, they would like to see Gingrich run.

    I would say a fresh face but if that is not available, then MIke Huckabee – if he runs.

  • Barack Obama,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Florida Poll Watch: Romney 48% Vs. Obama 43% and Huckabee 49% Vs. Obama 44%

    April 11, 2011 /

    According to the latest Sachs/Mason-Dixon Poll.

    President Obama Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • Approve – 43%
    • Disapprove – 56%

    President Obama Job Approval Vs. Disapproval among Independent Voters:

    • Approve – 34%
    • Disapprove – 56%

    For the Republican Nomination:

    • Mitt Romney – 23%
    • Mike Huckabee – 18%
    • Donald Trump – 13%
    • Newt Gingrich – 11%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 8%
    • Sarah Palin – 5%
    • Mitch Daniels – 4%
    • Ron Paul – 3%
    • Michele Bachmann – 1%

    Most interesting here is that Tim Pawlenty is polling better than Sarah Palin and so is Donald Trump.

    Head to Head:

    • Romney 48% Vs. Obama 43%
    • Huckabee 49% Vs. Obama 44%
    • Trump 40% Vs. Obama 48%
    • Palin 39% Vs. Obama 51%

    So, what does this all mean?

    Looks like Mitt Romney who announced his exploratory Presidential committee today has a leg up in this race, especially if Mike Huckabee does not run.

    President Obama who won Florida by 3 points in 2008 may have a tough time in 2012 unless the GOP were to nominate someone like Sarah Palin or Donald Trump.

    The GOP needs to win Florida and its 29 electoral votes in order to beat the incumbent President Obama and chances look good that they will.

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 New Hampshire Poll Watch: Obama 47% Vs. Romney 46%

    April 6, 2011 /

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    President Obama: 46% Vs. 46%

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Mitt Romney – 45% Vs. 44%
    • Mike Huckabee – 29% Vs. 52%
    • Newt Gingrich – 24% Vs. 62%
    • Donald Trump – 27% Vs. 60%
    • Sarah Palin – 28% Vs. 67%

    Head to Head:

    • Obama – 47% Vs. Romney – 46%
    • Obama – 52% Vs. Huckabee – 38%
    • Obama – 52% Vs. Gingrich 39%
    • Obama – 51% Vs. Trump – 37%
    • Obama – 56% vs. Palin – 34%

    Certainly, one can read into the polling results, that it is not so much that New Hampshire voters love Obama is that they hate the other GOP candidates, besides Mitt Romney. But, I doubt that Huckabee and/or Palin are running anyway.

    New Hampshire is a key battleground state and is a must win for the GOP nominee, if the want to beat the incumbent President. But, is Romney the choice because there are other states that the GOP nominee needs to win e.g. Virginia, North Carolina and Florida? In those states Romney is not so much.

    If there is an undeclared candidate like Mitch Daniels and/or Chris Christie, New Hampshire might be ripe for the picking – at least a second place finish to Romney in the primary and then on to win in the other states.

    The New Hampshire numbers are quite reminiscent of a poll we did in Nevada earlier this year that found a Romney nomination would result in a toss up situation in the state but that the GOP nominating anyone else would hand Obama an easy victory. The Republican nominee will have to win these kinds of states to be successful in 2012 but whether the party base will be open to sacrificing some ideological purity to put forward a candidate who can win in the New Hampshires and Nevadas of the world remains to be seen.

    The entire poll is here.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: Huckabee 21% Romney 13.5% Trump 8.8% Gingrich 7.8% Palin 6.6% Bachmann 5.3%

    April 6, 2011 /

    According to the latest Neighborhood Research Poll.

    A second ballot was then taken – excluding Mike Huckabee, Donald Trump and Sarah Palin.

    And, a third ballot which included only these candidates: Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul.

    So, what does this all mean?

    1) Gingrich’s strength with the base, in spite of Scozzafava, the Pelosi ad and personal issues.  

    Despite no gain in the ballot test from January, he is clearly stronger with more conservative and 

    religious voters

    2) Bachmann’s healthy showing and Pawlenty and Paul’s continued weak numbers

    3) Cain’s better than expected numbers with conservative insiders, showing his ground game is 

    paying dividends.

    4) Trump’s appeal to secular, more libertarian Republican voters is coming largely at Romney’s 

    expense.

    5) Huckabee, Palin and Romney’s share drops since January is a sign voters are looking for a new 

    face and may be looking down on Huckabee and Palin’s lack of ground effort.

    6) Neither Barbour nor Daniels has gained any traction thus far, and Santorum and Moore have 

    little.  Johnson, Huntsman, Bolton and Roemer are non-existent.

    7) Strong grass-roots support for the shutdown illustrates the ideological demands establishment 

    candidates will face, along with Congressional leaders.

    In all reality, this poll is a mash of many numbers and possible scenarios. It simply points out that Huckabee would be a formidable candidate (should he run) and there is really no front runner in Iowa.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rudy Giuliani,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Florida GOP Poll Watch: Romney 18% Huckabee 18% Gingrich 18% Palin 15% Bachmann 7%

    April 6, 2011 /

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    • Mitt Romney – 18%
    • Mike Huckabee – 18%
    • Newt Gingrich – 18%
    • Sarah Palin – 15%
    • Michele Bachmann – 7%
    • Ron Paul – 6%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 6%
    • Haley Barbour – 3%

    But, Romney was thought of as the front runner in Florida since he won 31% of the vote in 2008 vs. only 13% for Mike Huckabee. So, Romney has fallen and Huckabee has increased some.

    The reason Romney isn’t really proving to be the favorite in Florida is a lack of support from voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative,’ who at 40% constitute the largest share of the primary electorate in the state. Romney’s favorability with them is only 59%, placing him well behind Huckabee’s 81%, Gingrich’s 73%, Palin’s 71%, and even Ron Paul’s 60%. Only 12% of those voters say he’s their choice for the nomination, putting him firmly in fourth place.

    Then, there are some other scenarios, should Huckabee and/or Palin not run. And, even with Rudy Giuliani in the field.

    Testing a scenario in which Huckabee chose not to run, Gingrich leads Romney 24-23 with Palin at 19%. Testing a scenario in which Palin chose not to run, Huckabee leads with 24% to 22% for both Romney and Gingrich. In a scenario where both Huckabee and Palin sat the race out, Gingrich leads with 30% to 28% for Romney, 11% for Bachmann, and 10% for Pawlenty. Throwing Rudy Giuliani in the mix as a potential  candidate you get basically a four way tie at the top with Huckabee, Gingrich, and Romney at 17%, Giuliani at 16%, and Palin at 11%.

    So, what does this all mean?

    Florida is up for grabs – no front runner.

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Mike Huckabee is Strongest as President Obama Announces

    April 5, 2011 /

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    With President Obama officially announcing his candidacy for re-election on Monday, the question of whom he will run against becomes even more relevant. Three possible Republican candidates — Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich — are currently best situated among Republicans nationwide in terms of name recognition and Gallup Positive Intensity Scores. Sarah Palin and Ron Paul are also well known, but generate lower net enthusiasm from those who know them. Of the less well-known potential GOP candidates, Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, and Tim Pawlenty have the highest Positive Intensity Scores.

    Here is the positive intensity score chart.

    And, the name recognition chart.

    So, what does all mean?

    Gallup’s ongoing tracking shows that former Arkansas Gov. and current Fox News commentator Huckabee is the GOP leader at this point, based on his high name recognition and advantage in Positive Intensity. Huckabee also leads when Gallup asks Republicans whom they would support for the nomination. It remains unclear, however, whether Huckabee will end up running for his party’s nomination.

    Gingrich and Romney are clearly in second place behind Huckabee, based on their name identification and Positive Intensity Scores. However, neither man generates levels of support from Republicans that are as high as Huckabee’s, and neither has been able to change his status much over the last month. Gingrich has been more public about his intention to run for president, while Romney has maintained a somewhat lower national profile, even while traveling extensively to early primary and caucus states.

    As is the case for Huckabee, Palin’s intentions about running for president next year are unknown. By virtue of her inclusion on the national GOP ticket in 2008 and her ongoing television exposure, she is almost universally known among Republicans nationwide. But Palin’s positioning in the minds of Republicans who do know her is weaker than that of other potential candidates: 23% of those who recognize her have a strongly favorable opinion, compared with 7% who are strongly unfavorable.

    The potential for other less well-known Republicans to increase their name recognition and become serious contenders for their party’s nomination is the interesting question going forward. The data clearly show that Bachmann and Cain have a reaction-generating edge among those who know them, which in theory puts them in a position to make an impact if they can become better known. Pawlenty, who appears to be making a serious run at the presidency, is known by about 4 out of 10 Republicans and has a Positive Intensity Score slightly below Cain’s and Bachmann’s. Other, less well-known candidates such as Mississippi Gov. Barbour, Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, and Daniels currently do not generate high positive emotions from those who know them, something that would need to change if they are to contend for the nomination.

    The GOP Presidential race is wide-open is what these polls really say.

    Mike Huckabee should he choose to run and there has been little indication that he would, would be in the best position with Romney and Gingrich trailing – with little enthusiasm. Sarah Palin, who has been AWOL from Presidential speculation lately is behind the three.

    My guess is that a candidate who is not registering on the radar, like Mitch Daniels, Rudy Giuliani or Chris Christie may indeed join the race and the perceived vacuum of GOP candidates.