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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Close Race in Michigan
Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney
A couple of recent polls show a dead heat in Michigan.- Romney – 29%
- Santorum – 29%
- Gingrich – 10%
- Paul – 12%
- Undecided – 20%
The Republican race for President in Michigan has tightened considerably over the last week, with what was a 15 point lead for Rick Santorum down to 4. He leads with 37% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 10% for Newt Gingrich.
The tightening over the last week is much more a function of Romney gaining than Santorum falling. Santorum’s favorability spread of 67/23 has seen no change since our last poll, and his share of the vote has dropped only 2 points from 39% to 37%. Romney meanwhile has seen his net favorability improve 10 points from +10 (49/39) to +20 (55/35) and his vote share go from 24% to 33%.
What we’re seeing in Michigan is a very different story from Florida where Romney surged by effectively destroying his opponent’s image- here Romney’s gains have more to do with building himself up.
Groups Santorum has double digit leads with include Protestants (up 47-30), union members (up 43-23), Evangelicals (up 51-24), Tea Partiers (up 55-20), ‘very conservative’ voters (up 54-23), and men (up 40-28).
Romney is leading the field with women (38-34), seniors (42-34), moderates (35-24), ‘somewhat conservative’ voters (40-34), and Catholics (43-31).
As I have said, if Mitt Romney were to lose Michigan, the state of his youth and family legacy, there will undoubtedly be another candidate who will jump into the race. If Romney wins Michigan by a point or two, then there may also be a challenge.
Take your pick: Mitch Daniels or Jeb Bush.
Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are not polling well in general election match-ups against President Obama. The GOP Establsihment will not stand by and let Santorum and/or Gingrich sink their 2012 prospects.
But, the new candidate will have to move quickly since election deadlines loom in early March.
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President 2012: If Mitt Romney Loses Michigan – We Need a New Candidate Says Top GOP Senator
Former Gov. Jeb Bush speaks at the Hispanic Leadership Network’s conference, Thursday, Jan. 26, 2012 in Miami
You knew it was going to start.The GOP establishment is getting antsy about Mitt Romney and if he does manage to lose Michigan – well, he is done.
A prominent Republican senator just told me that if Romney can’t win in Michigan, the Republican Party needs to go back to the drawing board and convince somebody new to get into the race.
“If Romney cannot win Michigan, we need a new candidate,” said the senator, who has not endorsed anyone and requested anonymity.
The senator believes Romney will ultimately win in Michigan but says he will publicly call for the party to find a new candidate if he does not.
“We’d get killed,” the senator said if Romney manages to win the nomination after he failed to win the state in which he grew up.
“He’d be too damaged,” he said. “If he can’t even win in Michigan, where his family is from, where he grew up.”
What about Rick Santorum?
“He’d lose 35 states,” the senator said, predicting the same fate for Newt Gingrich.
And, who would the new candidate be?
Jeb Bush, said this Senator.
I, frankly, think it will be Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels or Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal – or even Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan.
If the GOP wants to win against President Obama, they had better hope Santorum beats Romney in Michigan.
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The Morning Flap: January 25, 2012
These are my links for January 23rd through January 25th:
- Newt Gingrich plays the Charlie Crist card – Once the Republican presidential campaign came to Florida, it was only a matter of time until someone played the Charlie Crist card.
In an attempt to tarnish Mitt Romney’s conservative credentials, Newt Gingrich on Tuesday connected Romney to Florida’s former governor, the once-ambitious moderate who fell so far out of favor with the GOP that in 2010 he left the GOP.
“We discovered last night that Mitt Romney has picked up Charlie Crist’s campaign manager,” Gingrich said Tuesday at the Tick Tock Restaurant in St. Petersburg. “I thought that told you everything you need to know about this primary.”
“As governor of Massachusetts [Romney] was pro-abortion, pro-gay rights, pro-tax increase and pro- gun control,” he said. “Now that makes you a moderate in Massachusetts but it makes you pretty liberal in a Republican primary. That’s probably why he hired Charlie Crist’s staff.” - Gov. Daniels: Obama is ‘pro-poverty’ – Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) castigated President Obama’s policies as “pro-poverty” and extreme in his response to the State of the Union address.
The Indiana governor, who considered a run for the White House before deciding last year against a campaign, knocked Obama for imposing regulations on business and for rejecting the proposed Keystone oil pipeline.
He labeled Obama’s policies as “pro-poverty and extremism that stifles the development of homegrown energy, or cancels a perfectly safe pipeline that would employ tens of thousands, or jacks up consumer utility bills for no improvement in either human health or world temperature.”
Daniels said Obama’s “trickle-down government” policies has restrained the country’s economic growth.Daniels also criticized Obama for trying to divide people with class warfare. “No feature of the Obama presidency has been sadder than its constant efforts to divide us, to curry favor with some Americans by castigating others,” he said
- 11 things Obama didn’t tell you about tax fairness last night « The Enterprise Blog – RT @JimPethokoukis: 11 things Obama didn’t tell you about tax fariness ast night
- @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-01-25 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-01-25
- Mitch Daniels blasts Obama for ‘trickle-down government’ – latimes.com – RT @latimes: Mitch Daniels blasts Obama for ‘trickle-down government’ #SOTU #tcot
- Read the GOP response to President Obama’s State of the Union remarks – latimes.com – RT @latimes: Full text of Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels’ Republican Address to the Nation in response to #SOTU address:
- State of the Union 2012: Obama speech full text – The Washington Post – RT @FixAaron: Full text of Obama’s speech here: #tcot #catcot
- Excerpts from Governor Mitch Daniels’ Republican Address to the Nation | Speaker of the House John Boehner | speaker.gov – RT @Students4Mitch: Excerpts from Governor Mitch Daniels’ Republican Address to the Nation |Speaker of the House John..
- CA-Sen: Santa Monica Republican Businessman Al Ramirez to Challenge Senator Dianne Feinstein » Flap’s California Blog – CA-Sen: Santa Monica Republican Businessman Al Ramirez to Challenge Senator Dianne Feinstein
- Flap’s Dentistry Blog: No California Deaths Due to Whooping Cough or Pertussis in 2011 – No California Deaths Due to Whooping Cough or Pertussis in 2011
- Do People Become More Conservative as They Age? : Discovery News – Do People Become More Conservative as They Age? Answer is No… #tcot
- Poll Watch: Americans Want Specific Proposals Not Vision from President Obama State of the Union Speech | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Poll Watch: Americans Want Specific Proposals Not Vision from President Obama State of the Union Speech
- Under Obama, Price of Gas Has Jumped 83 Percent, Ground Beef 24 Percent, Bacon 22 Percent | CNSnews.com – Obamanomics, Price of Gas Has Jumped 83 Percent, Ground Beef 24 Percent, Bacon 22 Percent
- California still has second-highest unemployment in U.S. – latimes.com – No surprise here RT @latimes: California still has second-highest unemployment in U.S.
- Stephens: The GOP Deserves to Lose – WSJ.com – The GOP Deserves to Lose – That’s what happens when you run with losers #tcot
- (500) http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-23/buffett-s-burlington-northern-among-winners-in-obama-rejection-of-pipeline.html – Warren Buffett’s Burlington Northern Among Winners From Keystone Denial #tcot
- Challenge Your Brain to Ward Off Alzheimer’s Disease? | Smiles For A Lifetime – Temporary (Locum Tenens) Dentistry – Challenge Your Brain to Ward Off Alzheimer’s Disease?
- (500) http://flapsblog.com/2012/01/24/president-2012-video-president-obama-a-warrior-for-the-middle-class/ – President 2012 Video: President Obama a Warrior for the Middle Class?
- AD-38: Scott Wilk Releases California State Senator Tony Strickland from Endorsement » Flap’s California Blog – AD-38: Scott Wilk Releases California State Senator Tony Strickland from Endorsement
- Flap’s Dentistry Blog: The Morning Drill: January 24, 2012 – The Morning Drill: January 24, 2012
- Day By Day January 24, 2012 – No Time Left For You | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Day By Day January 24, 2012 – No Time Left For You
- Riehl World View: Romney Adviser To Jen Rubin: Mitt’s Not A Man Of The People – That is a FACT | RT @DanRiehl: Romney Adviser To Jen Rubin: Mitt’s Not A Man Of The People
- Debate Winner: Mitch Daniels | The Weekly Standard – PERHAPS | RT @memeorandum Debate Winner: Mitch Daniels
- Untitled (http://www.memeorandum.com/120124/p18#a120124p18) – PERHAPS | RT @memeorandum Debate Winner: Mitch Daniels
- RNC ad takes on president over State of the Union – CNN Political Ticker – CNN.com Blogs – RNC ad takes on president over State of the Union –
- Poll: Romney’s Unfavorability Skyrockets – Steven Shepard – NationalJournal.com – Understandable | RT @nationaljournal Poll: Romney’s unfavorability skyrockets
- Is Oral Sex to Blame for the Surge in Cancer of the Mouth and Throat? – Elaine Schattner – Health – The Atlantic – Partly to blame – smoking too RT @TheAtlanticHLTH Is oral sex to blame for the surge in cancer of the mouth and throat?
- Introduction | Mitt Romney for President – If you want to look through details of Mitt Romney’s 2010 and 2011 taxes links at bottom
- Untitled (http://www.memeorandum.com/120124/p14#a120124p14) – Here it comes | RT @memeorandum Draft Jeb Bush
- Draft Jeb Bush – Artur Davis – National Review Online – Here it comes | RT @memeorandum Draft Jeb Bush
- One Thousand Days Without a Budget | The Weekly Standard – One Thousand Days Without a Budget: It has been 1,000 days since the Senate has produced a budget, and congressi…
- @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-01-24 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-01-24
- 9PM – Watch the NBC Republican Debate | The Right Scoop – @murphymike Go here Mike:
- Update: CA-26 Video: Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks Issues Two Challenges | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Update: CA-26 Video: Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks Issues Two Challenges
- President 2012 GOP Florida Poll Watch: Gingrich 38% Vs. Romney 33% Vs. Santorum 13% Vs. Paul 10% | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – President 2012 GOP Florida Poll Watch: Gingrich 38% Vs. Romney 33% Vs. Santorum 13% Vs. Paul 10%
- Newt up 5 in Florida – Public Policy Polling – RT @ppppolls: Florida: Gingrich 38, Romney 33, Santorum 13, Paul 10:
- Gingrich releases Freddie Mac contract – CNN Political Ticker – CNN.com Blogs – RT @PoliticalTicker: Gingrich releases Freddie Mac contract –
- Citizen Kane | KFI NEWS – KFI AM 640 More Stimulating Talk Radio – RT @KFINEWS: Citizen Kane to be shown at Hearst Castle.
- Mark Levin blasts Christie for parroting old left-wing ethics propaganda against Newt | The Right Scoop – RT @trscoop: Mark Levin blasts Christie for parroting old left-wing ethics propaganda against Newt:
- Adelson to double contribution to help Newt’s presidential bid – Politics: Ralston’s Flash – Las Vegas Sun – RT @RalstonFlash: Adelson to double contribution to help Newt’s presidential bid
- GOP food fight: Sarah Palin slams Chris Christie for getting his “panties in a wad” over Gingrich | Politics Blog | an SFGate.com blog – RT @cmarinucci: .@SarahPalinUSA goes ballistic on Chris Christie for getting his “panties in a wad” on @newtgingrich
- California Election 2012: California Democratic Party Pre-Endorsement Conferences » Flap’s California Blog – California Election 2012: California Democratic Party Pre-Endorsement Conferences
- Posts – Liz Mair – A Fresh Voice – RT @JimPethokoukis: RT @LizMair: Some important things about Florida worth paying attention to:
- CA-26 Video: Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks Issues Two Challenges | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – CA-26 Video: Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks Issues Two Challenges
- Flap’s Dentistry Blog: Aspen Dental to Sponsor Ryan Newman’s Chevrolet for NASCAR – Aspen Dental to Sponsor Ryan Newman’s Chevrolet for NASCAR
- Romney’s National Lead Collapses – Romney’s National Lead Collapses –
- Newt Gingrich’s rise — in one chart – The Washington Post – Newt Gingrich’s rise — in one chart
- President 2012 GOP Florida Intrade Watch: Gingrich 61.4% Vs. Romney 38.1% | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – President 2012 GOP Florida Intrade Watch: Gingrich 61.4% Vs. Romney 38.1%
- Exercise To Prevent Alzheimer’s Disease? | Smiles For A Lifetime – Temporary (Locum Tenens) Dentistry – Exercise To Prevent Alzheimer’s Disease?
- U.S. Economy Most Toxic of 24 Issues – Americans’ satisfaction with the nation’s economy has dropped by 23 points since January 2008 to 13% today
- Newt Gingrich plays the Charlie Crist card – Once the Republican presidential campaign came to Florida, it was only a matter of time until someone played the Charlie Crist card.
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President 2012: How’s That Mitch Daniels Candidacy Looking?
Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels speaks at Rider University in Lawrenceville, N.J. More than a year out from Election Day, all sorts of Republicans, including Daniels, are making a point of keeping themselves in the national spotlight, stoking speculation that they’re positioning themselves as potential running mates for the eventual GOP presidential nominee
Phil Klein looks at a Daniels what if?Many conservatives have been desperate for an alternative to Mitt Romney, but he still finds himself ahead in the first four primary states, because no single rival has been able to consolidate opposition to him or convince the establishment wing of the GOP that they’d be plausible. (BTW, I’m using “establishment,” roughly speaking, as a way of describing those who place more emphasis on electability than ideology.)
Daniels, no doubt, had his share of detractors, given his social issues “truce” comments, uncertainty about whether he’d be open to raising taxes, and skepticism over his foreign policy views among hawks. But his governing record in Indiana was well to the right of Mitt Romney’s in Massachusetts. If Romney can overcome past support for abortion, gun control, the McCain-Kennedy immigration approach, and government-run health care — among other liberal positions — Daniels’ deviations from conservatism would have looked mild by comparison. In addition, his command of policy details and strong executive record would have allowed him to compete with Romney for establishment support. It’s hard to imagine Daniels having a deer in the headlights moment in a debate.
Mitch Daniels would be the nominee, if he had run.
Will Mitt Romney choose him as a Vice Presidential candidate?
Only if he wants to win.
And, if Romney loses, then Daniels will be th epresumptive front-runner for 2016.
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President 2012 Video: Chris Christie and Mitch Daniels STILL Not Running for President
Video: Govs. Christie and Daniels on why they’re not running for presidentChris Christie took another spin in the “I’m not running for president” tango this morning. Today’s dance partner: Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels.
Speaking before an audience of students at Rider University, Republican governors were asked (again) to explain their respective decisions not to run for president. Christie did, prompting this push from Daniels:
“I’m not taking no from Christie…I’m taking ‘Not yet,'” Daniels said, before declaring his respect for Christie’s decision. “He’s doing so many good things for your state. Your state needs him to keep on.”
But……
And while his (Christie’s) words say no to a quick departure from New Jersey, recent actions — such as this week’s launch of $1.5 million ad campaign touting his achievements in New York and Pennsylvania — say “maybe.”
The GOP Presidential field needs additional candidates, if not them, who?
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President 2012: Mitch Daniels Calls for a More Honest Debate
Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels answers questions Thursday, May 19, 2011, at the Palais Royale ballroom during a breakfast speech in South Bend, Indiana
I still wish Daniels would have run for the Presidency but now he is hawking his book that will be out tomorrow.Four months after he decided against jumping into the Republican presidential race, Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana says that he has occasionally been frustrated by the discourse in the campaign and that the field could benefit from at least one more contender whose candidacy was rooted in a message of fiscal discipline.
Mr. Daniels said his party’s candidates had a responsibility to conduct a “more candid and honest” conversation about the nation’s financial burdens, particularly Social Security and Medicare.
“Somebody else could still enter and have a competitive chance,” Mr. Daniels said in a weekend interview. “The candidate I could get instantly excited about is someone who is willing to level with the American people and assume they are prepared to listen to the mathematical facts and agree that whatever other disagreements we have aren’t as important.”
Mr. Daniels, who is among the country’s most respected Republican governors, has not chosen a favorite candidate in the party’s nominating contest. He said the recent contentious exchanges over Social Security between the party’s leading candidates, Gov. Rick Perry of Texas and former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, had not advanced the debate.
Please, please a team of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Rep. Paul Ryan. Either or both would be better than Romney and Perry.
The observations from Mr. Daniels come as he prepares this week to release a book, “Keeping the Republic: Saving America by Trusting Americans.” In the book, to be released Tuesday, he calls for a new Reconstruction period in the United States and proposes major changes to entitlement programs to help control the deficit and avert “the most predictable crisis we’ll ever face.”
He outlines in stark terms what he views as the nation’s precarious economic condition, suggesting that Democrats and Republicans alike have failed to adequately prepare for a new “Red menace” facing the United States.
“It’s quite possible that some Republican could win next year by just being not the president, but then what?” Mr. Daniels said. “They should campaign to govern, not just win an election.”
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President 2012: Why Mitch Daniels Did NOT Run for President
Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels and wife Cheri
Obviously, it was for the sake of his family.Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels received encouragement to pursue the presidency from all over the country, from tea party activists to Republican Party elites. But after months of deliberation, Daniels could not overcome the barrier that he warned supporters about from the start: family concerns stood in the way.
Daniels’ unusual marital history was apparently the issue. He’s only been married to one woman — but twice, and the gap in that marriage in the 1990s was the sore spot. Cheri Daniels left Mitch when he was in private life in 1994 and moved to California with a doctor. The Danielses would later remarry, but the pain it caused the people involved, including their four daughters, was too much to bear.
A whisper campaign already making the rounds among political activists revealed how tough some of the scrutiny was going to be: What kind of first lady would leave her children at home for her husband to raise? Why did Mitch Daniels take her back?
Many Washington GOP strategists have said for months that that one issue would be too much for Daniels. In the end, it was — according to Daniels’ himself.
And, then there was the other wife who Cheri Daniels ruined her family (marriage and children with the California doctor). You know that would have come out and it has – even with Mitch out of the race.
RealClearPolitics was approached by the ex-wife of the doctor with whom Mrs. Daniels fled to California. The other couple was married at the time, and the woman said in a phone interview that the move “blindsided” her.
While she said she’s over the breakup of her marriage, in an email she characterized Cheri Daniels as “vengeful.”
The doctor’s ex-wife continued: “What I will say is they remarried for political reasons. She didn’t care what she did to her children or mine in 1994. And she doesn’t care about what she does now. Look up ‘narcissist.’ I really question her character, and her motives.”
The media scrutiny would have been overwhelming. If you think the tabloids have gone after Bristol Palin, can you imagine what they would have done to the four Daniel’s daughters and their friends?
Politically, the Independent Expenditure groups would have beaten up Mitch, Cheri and especially their children. And, then there is the Obama campaign, if Daniels happened to beat Mitt Romney who would have beaten Mitch senseless – all through IE expenditures.
So why is this happening? Simple. You’ve probably heard that the president and his team are looking to raise $1 billion to run on in 2012. They may make it; they may not. But what is that money to be spent on? He won’t have to spend it in a primary, it looks like. So that means the Obama team will have hundreds upon hundreds of millions of dollars to spend with one object and one object only: Destroy the eventual Republican nominee. Go after him. Drag his name through the mud. Run commercials every 15 seconds in six battleground states in which he removes wheelchairs from Medicare patients and grabs checks from Social Security recipients. And should there be a personal problem, a marial difficulty…well, Katie, bar the door. Imagine being Mitch Daniels, with your complex marital history, contemplating the onslaught of a negative campaign that cascades over you beginning in June 2012, just as you’re trying to “define” yourself to the American people. Pretty horrible to contemplate.
Mitch Daniels is 62 years old, has two more years on his term as Indiana Governor, and why put up with all of this crap running for the Presidency.
Daniels made a wise decision.
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President 2012: Daniels is Out – So Who is Left?
Jennifer Rubin who never liked Mitch Daniels calls him names, but the GOP base has to ponder – who is left?
Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels’s pre-campaign effort was odd from the get-go. He antagonized key blocs of the Republican Party, evidenced a tin ear and seemed to take no counsel from anyone. Now he’s out, citing family concerns. Donald Trump never intended to run, and his exit was no surprise. But to Daniels’s supporters this “tease” may leave a bad taste in their mouths (as Daniels conceded in his letter to supporters). In any event, his departure confirms that he is, bluntly speaking, an odd duck.
Meanwhile, former Utah governor and ambassador to China Jon Huntsman — who served in the Obama administration, previously backed cap-and-trade, is viewed warily by social conservatives and has no perceptible grass-roots support — has made his candidacy even less credible…
Maybe it will be the Bob Dole, boring boys, campaign after all – with Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty.
Wow, with that duo Obama will really cruise to a victory.
But, on the bright side, the GOP donors will redirect their money to U.S. Senate races where they might actually be able to elect someone.
The only candidates that can enter this race now and make it half-way competitive will be New Jersey Governor Chris Christie or former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. If not, the race for 2012 will be a snorer.
But, wait…..I bet Sarah Palin runs, if no other GOP Establishment type ponies up to the bar.
So, maybe the race wont be boring – just hopeless lost.
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Updated with Daniels Interview: President 2012: Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels Will NOT Run for President
*****Update*****
The Indy Star is up with an interview of Governor Mitch Daniels.
“On matters affecting us all, our family constitution gives a veto to the women’s caucus, and there is no override provision,” Daniels said. “Simply put, I find myself caught between two duties. I love my country; I love my family more.”
Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels answers questions Thursday, May 19, 2011, at the Palais Royale ballroom during a breakfast speech in South Bend, Indiana
Mitch Daniels is out of the race for 2012.
Gov. Mitch Daniels and many Republicans think he could have been the next president of the United States but he will not run, saying his wife and daughters vetoed that choice.
I will not be a candidate, Daniels said in a statement given exclusively late Saturday to The Indianapolis Star.
Those words ended 17 months of speculation and downright begging from anxious Republicans searching for a candidate who can beat President Barack Obama.
There will be plenty more in the morning. But, this development certainly helps Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman.
Stay tuned as the Bush donors scramble to find someone to draft to be the anti-Romney candidate. My best guess is New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.
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President 2012: Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels Will NOT Run for President
Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels answers questions Thursday, May 19, 2011, at the Palais Royale ballroom during a breakfast speech in South Bend, Indiana
Mitch Daniels is out of the race for 2012.Gov. Mitch Daniels and many Republicans think he could have been the next president of the United States — but he will not run, saying his wife and daughters vetoed that choice.
“I will not be a candidate,” Daniels said in a statement given exclusively late Saturday to The Indianapolis Star.
Those words ended 17 months of speculation — and downright begging from anxious Republicans searching for a candidate who can beat President Barack Obama.
There will be plenty more in the morning. But, this development certainly helps Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman.
Stay tuned as the Bush donors scramble to find someone to draft to be the anti-Romney candidate. My best guess is New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.