President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Close Race in Michigan

Posted Posted in Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Rick Santorum

Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney

A couple of recent polls show a dead heat in Michigan.

We Ask American Poll:

  • Romney – 29%
  • Santorum – 29%
  • Gingrich – 10%
  • Paul – 12%
  • Undecided – 20%

PPP Poll:

The Republican race for President in Michigan has tightened considerably over the last week, with what was a 15 point lead for Rick Santorum down to 4. He leads with 37% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 10% for Newt Gingrich.

The tightening over the last week is much more a function of Romney gaining than Santorum falling. Santorum’s favorability spread of 67/23 has seen no change since our last poll, and his share of the vote has dropped only 2 points from 39% to 37%. Romney meanwhile has seen his net favorability improve 10 points from +10 (49/39) to +20 (55/35) and his vote share go from 24% to 33%.

What we’re seeing in Michigan is a very different story from Florida where Romney surged by effectively destroying his opponent’s image- here Romney’s gains have more to do with building himself up.

Groups Santorum has double digit leads with include Protestants (up 47-30), union members (up 43-23), Evangelicals (up 51-24), Tea Partiers (up 55-20), ‘very conservative’ voters (up 54-23), and men (up 40-28).

Romney is leading the field with women (38-34), seniors (42-34), moderates (35-24), ‘somewhat conservative’ voters (40-34), and Catholics (43-31).

As I have said, if Mitt Romney were to lose Michigan, the state of his youth and family legacy, there will undoubtedly be another candidate who will jump into the race. If Romney wins Michigan by a point or two, then there may also be a challenge.

Take your pick: Mitch Daniels or Jeb Bush.

Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are not polling well in general election match-ups against President Obama. The GOP Establsihment will not stand by and let Santorum and/or Gingrich sink their 2012 prospects.

But, the new candidate will have to move quickly since election deadlines loom in early March.

President 2012: If Mitt Romney Loses Michigan – We Need a New Candidate Says Top GOP Senator

Posted 5 CommentsPosted in Bobby Jindal, Jeb Bush, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, President 2012, Rick Santorum

Former Gov. Jeb Bush speaks at the Hispanic Leadership Network’s conference, Thursday, Jan. 26, 2012 in Miami

You knew it was going to start.

The GOP establishment is getting antsy about Mitt Romney and if he does manage to lose Michigan – well, he is done.

A prominent Republican senator just told me that if Romney can’t win in Michigan, the Republican Party needs to go back to the drawing board and convince somebody new to get into the race.

“If Romney cannot win Michigan, we need a new candidate,” said the senator, who has not endorsed anyone and requested anonymity.

The senator believes Romney will ultimately win in Michigan but says he will publicly call for the party to find a new candidate if he does not.

“We’d get killed,” the senator said if Romney manages to win the nomination after he failed to win the state in which he grew up.

“He’d be too damaged,” he said.  “If he can’t even win in Michigan, where his family is from, where he grew up.”

What about Rick Santorum?

“He’d lose 35 states,” the senator said, predicting the same fate for Newt Gingrich.

And, who would the new candidate be?

Jeb Bush, said this Senator.

I, frankly, think it will be Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels or Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal – or even Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan.

If the GOP wants to win against President Obama, they had better hope Santorum beats Romney in Michigan.

The Morning Flap: January 25, 2012

Posted 1 CommentPosted in Mitch Daniels, Pinboard Links, The Morning Flap

These are my links for January 23rd through January 25th:

President 2012: How’s That Mitch Daniels Candidacy Looking?

Posted Posted in Mitch Daniels, President 2012

Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels speaks at Rider University in Lawrenceville, N.J. More than a year out from Election Day, all sorts of Republicans, including Daniels, are making a point of keeping themselves in the national spotlight, stoking speculation that they’re positioning themselves as potential running mates for the eventual GOP presidential nominee

Phil Klein looks at a Daniels what if?
Many conservatives have been desperate for an alternative to Mitt Romney, but he still finds himself ahead in the first four primary states, because no single rival has been able to consolidate opposition to him or convince the establishment wing of the GOP that they’d be plausible. (BTW, I’m using “establishment,” roughly speaking, as a way of describing those who place more emphasis on electability than ideology.)

Daniels, no doubt, had his share of detractors, given his social issues “truce” comments, uncertainty about whether he’d be open to raising taxes, and skepticism over his foreign policy views among hawks. But his governing record in Indiana was well to the right of Mitt Romney’s in Massachusetts. If Romney can overcome past support for abortion, gun control, the McCain-Kennedy immigration approach, and government-run health care — among other liberal positions — Daniels’ deviations from conservatism would have looked mild by comparison. In addition, his command of policy details and strong executive record would have allowed him to compete with Romney for establishment support. It’s hard to imagine Daniels having a deer in the headlights moment in a debate.

Mitch Daniels would be the nominee, if he had run.

Will Mitt Romney choose him as a Vice Presidential candidate?

Only if he wants to win.

And, if Romney loses, then Daniels will be th epresumptive front-runner for 2016.

President 2012 Video: Chris Christie and Mitch Daniels STILL Not Running for President

Posted Posted in Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels, President 2012
Video: Govs. Christie and Daniels on why they’re not running for president

I guess NOT.

Chris Christie took another spin in the “I’m not running for president” tango this morning. Today’s dance partner: Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels.

Speaking before an audience of students at Rider University, Republican governors were asked (again) to explain their respective decisions not to run for president. Christie did, prompting this push from Daniels:

“I’m not taking no from Christie…I’m taking ‘Not yet,'” Daniels said, before declaring his respect for Christie’s decision. “He’s doing so many good things for your state. Your state needs him to keep on.”

But……

And while his (Christie’s) words say no to a quick departure from New Jersey, recent actions — such as this week’s launch of $1.5 million ad campaign touting his achievements in New York and Pennsylvania — say “maybe.”

The GOP Presidential field needs additional candidates, if not them, who?

President 2012: Mitch Daniels Calls for a More Honest Debate

Posted Posted in Mitch Daniels, President 2012

Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels answers questions Thursday, May 19, 2011, at the Palais Royale ballroom during a breakfast speech in South Bend, Indiana

I still wish Daniels would have run for the Presidency but now he is hawking his book that will be out tomorrow.
Four months after he decided against jumping into the Republican presidential race, Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana says that he has occasionally been frustrated by the discourse in the campaign and that the field could benefit from at least one more contender whose candidacy was rooted in a message of fiscal discipline.

Mr. Daniels said his party’s candidates had a responsibility to conduct a “more candid and honest” conversation about the nation’s financial burdens, particularly Social Security and Medicare.

“Somebody else could still enter and have a competitive chance,” Mr. Daniels said in a weekend interview. “The candidate I could get instantly excited about is someone who is willing to level with the American people and assume they are prepared to listen to the mathematical facts and agree that whatever other disagreements we have aren’t as important.”

Mr. Daniels, who is among the country’s most respected Republican governors, has not chosen a favorite candidate in the party’s nominating contest. He said the recent contentious exchanges over Social Security between the party’s leading candidates, Gov. Rick Perry of Texas and former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, had not advanced the debate.

Please, please a team of New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Rep. Paul Ryan. Either or both would be better than Romney and Perry.

The observations from Mr. Daniels come as he prepares this week to release a book, “Keeping the Republic: Saving America by Trusting Americans.” In the book, to be released Tuesday, he calls for a new Reconstruction period in the United States and proposes major changes to entitlement programs to help control the deficit and avert “the most predictable crisis we’ll ever face.”

He outlines in stark terms what he views as the nation’s precarious economic condition, suggesting that Democrats and Republicans alike have failed to adequately prepare for a new “Red menace” facing the United States.

“It’s quite possible that some Republican could win next year by just being not the president, but then what?” Mr. Daniels said. “They should campaign to govern, not just win an election.”