The Republican race for President in Michigan has tightened considerably over the last week, with what was a 15 point lead for Rick Santorum down to 4. He leads with 37% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 10% for Newt Gingrich.
The tightening over the last week is much more a function of Romney gaining than Santorum falling. Santorum’s favorability spread of 67/23 has seen no change since our last poll, and his share of the vote has dropped only 2 points from 39% to 37%. Romney meanwhile has seen his net favorability improve 10 points from +10 (49/39) to +20 (55/35) and his vote share go from 24% to 33%.
What we’re seeing in Michigan is a very different story from Florida where Romney surged by effectively destroying his opponent’s image- here Romney’s gains have more to do with building himself up.
Groups Santorum has double digit leads with include Protestants (up 47-30), union members (up 43-23), Evangelicals (up 51-24), Tea Partiers (up 55-20), ‘very conservative’ voters (up 54-23), and men (up 40-28).
Romney is leading the field with women (38-34), seniors (42-34), moderates (35-24), ‘somewhat conservative’ voters (40-34), and Catholics (43-31).
As I have said, if Mitt Romney were to lose Michigan, the state of his youth and family legacy, there will undoubtedly be another candidate who will jump into the race. If Romney wins Michigan by a point or two, then there may also be a challenge.
Take your pick: Mitch Daniels or Jeb Bush.
Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are not polling well in general election match-ups against President Obama. The GOP Establsihment will not stand by and let Santorum and/or Gingrich sink their 2012 prospects.
But, the new candidate will have to move quickly since election deadlines loom in early March.
The GOP establishment is getting antsy about Mitt Romney and if he does manage to lose Michigan – well, he is done.
A prominent Republican senator just told me that if Romney can’t win in Michigan, the Republican Party needs to go back to the drawing board and convince somebody new to get into the race.
“If Romney cannot win Michigan, we need a new candidate,” said the senator, who has not endorsed anyone and requested anonymity.
The senator believes Romney will ultimately win in Michigan but says he will publicly call for the party to find a new candidate if he does not.
“We’d get killed,” the senator said if Romney manages to win the nomination after he failed to win the state in which he grew up.
“He’d be too damaged,” he said. “If he can’t even win in Michigan, where his family is from, where he grew up.”
What about Rick Santorum?
“He’d lose 35 states,” the senator said, predicting the same fate for Newt Gingrich.
And, who would the new candidate be?
Jeb Bush, said this Senator.
I, frankly, think it will be Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels or Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal – or even Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan.
If the GOP wants to win against President Obama, they had better hope Santorum beats Romney in Michigan.
These are my links for January 23rd through January 25th:
Newt Gingrich plays the Charlie Crist card – Once the Republican presidential campaign came to Florida, it was only a matter of time until someone played the Charlie Crist card.
In an attempt to tarnish Mitt Romney’s conservative credentials, Newt Gingrich on Tuesday connected Romney to Florida’s former governor, the once-ambitious moderate who fell so far out of favor with the GOP that in 2010 he left the GOP.
“We discovered last night that Mitt Romney has picked up Charlie Crist’s campaign manager,” Gingrich said Tuesday at the Tick Tock Restaurant in St. Petersburg. “I thought that told you everything you need to know about this primary.”
“As governor of Massachusetts [Romney] was pro-abortion, pro-gay rights, pro-tax increase and pro- gun control,” he said. “Now that makes you a moderate in Massachusetts but it makes you pretty liberal in a Republican primary. That’s probably why he hired Charlie Crist’s staff.”
Gov. Daniels: Obama is ‘pro-poverty’ – Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) castigated President Obama’s policies as “pro-poverty” and extreme in his response to the State of the Union address.
The Indiana governor, who considered a run for the White House before deciding last year against a campaign, knocked Obama for imposing regulations on business and for rejecting the proposed Keystone oil pipeline.
He labeled Obama’s policies as “pro-poverty and extremism that stifles the development of homegrown energy, or cancels a perfectly safe pipeline that would employ tens of thousands, or jacks up consumer utility bills for no improvement in either human health or world temperature.”
Daniels said Obama’s “trickle-down government” policies has restrained the country’s economic growth.
Daniels also criticized Obama for trying to divide people with class warfare. “No feature of the Obama presidency has been sadder than its constant efforts to divide us, to curry favor with some Americans by castigating others,” he said
Romney, supposedly the Republican most electable next November, is a recidivist reviser of his principles who is not only becoming less electable, he might damage GOP chances of capturing the Senate: Republican successes down the ticket will depend on the energies of the tea party and other conservatives, who will be deflated by a nominee whose blurry profile in caution communicates only calculated trimming. Republicans may have found their Michael Dukakis, a technocratic Massachusetts governor who takes his bearings from ‘data’ … Has conservatism come so far, surmounting so many obstacles, to settle, at a moment of economic crisis, for THIS?
I, frankly, think there needs to be another candidate to face off against Mitt Romney in the upcooming primary elections. Mitt may win the nomination with the current field but, despite what the poll says today, will lose to President Obama.
Mitch Daniels, Rudy Giuliani or Mike Huckabee are all capable POLS who SHOULD challenge him. There should be an immediate DRAFT effort.
If the GOP were to nominate Romney anyway, then there you go. Don’t blame me for the epic loss to Obama and the failure to win back the U.S. Senate.
But, Republican voters really should have more choices.
Romney, supposedly the Republican most electable next November, is a recidivist reviser of his principles who is not only becoming less electable, he might damage GOP chances of capturing the Senate: Republican successes down the ticket will depend on the energies of the tea party and other conservatives, who will be deflated by a nominee whose blurry profile in caution communicates only calculated trimming. Republicans may have found their Michael Dukakis, a technocratic Massachusetts governor who takes his bearings from ‘data’ … Has conservatism come so far, surmounting so many obstacles, to settle, at a moment of economic crisis, for THIS?
I, frankly, think there needs to be another candidate to face off against Mitt Romney in the upcooming primary elections. Mitt may win the nomination with the current field but, despite what the poll says today, will lose to President Obama.
Mitch Daniels, Rudy Giuliani or Mike Huckabee are all capable POLS who SHOULD challenge him. There should be an immediate DRAFT effort.
If the GOP were to nominate Romney anyway, then there you go. Don’t blame me for the epic loss to Obama and the failure to win back the U.S. Senate.
But, Republican voters really should have more choices.
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