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Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin
President 2012 Virginia Poll Watch: Obama 52% Vs. Huckabee 43%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:
- President Barack Obama – 51% vs. 44%
Democrats are united for the President.
The biggest key for him is that he has the Democratic base completely behind him- 94% approve to only 4% who disapprove. Virginia still has a lot of white conservative Democrats, particularly in certain parts of the state, so for Obama to have almost unanimous approval within his party is very impressive. He even has more Republicans (albeit a paltry 7%) who approve of him than there are Democrats (4%) who disapprove. That’s not something we’re seeing in our polling very often right now. Independents narrowly give him good marks, 48/46, as well.
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Mike Huckabee – 37% Vs. 42%
- Mitt Romney – 35% Vs. 43%
- Newt Gingrich – 26% Vs. 54%
- Sarah Palin – 31% Vs. 62%
- Donald Trump – 22% vs. 69%
General Election Head to Head:
- Obama – 52% Vs Huckabee – 43%
- Obama – 51% Vs. Romney – 40%
- Obama – 54% Vs. Gingrich – 37%
- Obama – 55% Vs. Palin – 40%
- Obama – 54% Vs. Trump – 32%
Virginia is a key battleground sate that the GOP needs to flip in 2012. Compare the results of the most recent Washington Post poll of Virginia.
Similar, no?
In Virginia, the GOP Presidential candidate field is not very popular and well received. If the Republicans want to take back Virginia’s Electoral College votes, they will need to run candidates other than the current field. Calling on Mitch Daniels and/or Chris Christie.
Even if Obama was unpopular in Virginia he’d still be in a decent position to win the state again because the GOP contenders are so weak there. Take those unpopular Republicans and combine them with a decently popular Obama and you have a very difficult battle for the GOP to get Virginia back. And it’s hard to imagine the party winning back the White House without Virginia- because of that fact and because of Obama’s relative strength there, this is looking to me like the most important state in the Presidential race next year.
Exactly and why Mitch Daniels or Chris Christie will jump into the race.
The entire poll is here.
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President 2012: Newt Gingrich to Announce for the Presidency on Wednesday
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich arrives for a 2012 presidential exploratory committee fundraising event in Atlanta on april 13, 2011. A spokesman for Gingrich says the former House speaker will announce Wednesday he is running for president.
Newt Gingrich will announce for the Presidency on Wednesday.Newt Gingrich is running for president. The former House speaker disclosed his bid on Twitter and Facebook on Monday and urged followers to tune into Fox News on Wednesday.
“I will be on to talk about my run for president of the United States,” Gingrich wrote after spending a year or more publicly laying the groundwork for a GOP presidential candidacy. “I have been humbled by all the encouragement you have given me to run.”
Gingrich, 67, enters a Republican field that’s far from fully formed; no less than a dozen Republicans are weighing bids and only a few have taken steps toward candidacies. It’s a crop of candidates that has many in the Republican Party yearning for more options as they seek the strongest candidate to take on President Barack Obama in 2012.
Besides high name recognition, Gingrich brings to the race a slew of policy ideas, a network of grass-roots support and a political machine years in the making. But his personal baggage – he’s on his third marriage – could hinder his chances as he seeks to woo conservatives who make up the core of the GOP primary electorate.
The personal baggage will sink Gingrich and I doubt he makes it past the Florida primary election.
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Day By Day May 6, 2011 – Balls
Day By Day by Chris MuirThe South Carolina GOP Presidential debate last night was disappointing. None of the REAL candidates bothered to show up for this Fox News sponsored event.I mean REALLY who can take Rick Santorum, Gary Johnson or Ron Paul seriously?
The GOP Presidential race is getting a late start and it is probably for the best. The REAL candidates will be savaged by an Obama supporitng MSM and why give them a head start prior to the summer.
So, who do I think will run?
Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty.
Who will be the nominee?
Mike Huckabee or Mitch Daniels.
But, we will see, since it it not clear at this time whether Huckabee or Daniels will even run.
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Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin
President 2012 Florida GOP Poll Watch: Romney 26% Huckabee 12% Gingrich 11% Palin 9%
According to the latest ARG Poll.
This is the third poll in less than a month that has been especially favorable for Mitt Romney. Here is the other poll.
With Romney having a virtual lock on New Hampshire and Nevada, and him polling well in Pennsylvania and Arizona is Romney setting himslef up as the front runner?
Perhaps.
And, what affect will this Florida polling have on a possible Mitch Daniels or even Mike Hucakbee’s candidacy?
A good day for Mitt Romney.
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President 2012 Arizona Poll Watch: Mitt Romney 48% Vs. Barack Obama 44%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:- President Barack Obama – 46% Vs. 50%
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Newt Gingrich – 26% Vs. 59%
- Mike Huckabee – 35% Vs. 48%
- Sarah Palin – 32% Vs. 62%
- Mitt Romney – 45% Vs. 37%
- Donald Trump – 24% Vs. 66%
Interesting that Mitt Romney is the only GOP candidate in positive favorable territory.
General election Head to Head:
- Barack Obama – 47% Vs. Newt Gingrich – 40%
- Barack Obama – 46% Vs. Mike Huckabee – 44%
- Barack Obama – 49% Vs. Sarah Palin – 38%
- Mitt Romney – 48% Vs. Barack Obama – 44%
- Barack Obama – 48% Vs. Donald Trump – 36%
Again, only Mitt Romney leads President Obama. This is the third state in the last month, including Nevada and Pennsylvania that Romney is the ONLY Republican beating Obama.
There has been speculation that Sarah Palin may move from Alaska to Arizona. But, she would not receive a warm welcome as only 27% say they would like her to move to Arizona, whereas 57% hope she stays away. 16% don’t offer an opinion.
Again, it seems Arizona voters are unhappy with the GOP Field. Will the addition of Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels make a difference? Or is Mitt Romney good enough?
The entire poll is here. -
President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney 19% Huckabee 17% Palin 9% Trump 8% Gingrich 7% Paul 7%
According to the latest Fox News Poll.
With the Republican field for the 2012 presidential nomination still in flux, the two major candidates who ran for president in 2008 — Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee — receive the most backing among GOP voters nationally.
Romney garners the support of 19 percent of Republicans and Huckabee 17 percent, according to a Fox News poll released Thursday. The next group of candidates is bunched together: Sarah Palin at nine percent, Donald Trump at eight percent, and Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul receive seven percent a piece.
Earlier this month, Huckabee was at 15 percent among Republican voters, Romney 14 percent, Palin 12 percent, Trump 11 percent and Gingrich 7 percent (April 3-5).
Among voters who consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement, Huckabee (19 percent) and Romney (17 percent) are still the top two choices, followed by Palin (10 percent) and Trump (10 percent). No other contenders receive double-digit support.
The GOP Primary:
- Mitt Romney – 19%
- Mike Huckabee – 17%
- Sarah Palin – 9%
- Donald Trump – 8%
- Newt Gingrich – 7%
- Ron Paul – 7%
The poll was taken Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday nights, so some interviews were conducted before and some were after the president released his birth certificate.
The Fox News poll is based on landline and cell phone interviews with 911 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from April 25 to April 27. For the total sample, it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
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Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty
President 2012 Nevada GOP Poll Watch: Romney 24% Trump 16% Gingrich 11% Huckabee 10%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Mitt Romney – 64% Vs. 23%
- Mike Huckabee – 61% Vs. 26%
- Newt Gingrich – 61% Vs. 21%
- Sarah Palin – 65% Vs. 26%
- Donald Trump – 47% Vs. 40%
But, Mitt Romney’s lead is declining as Donald Trump has entered the field.
Mitt Romney continues to be the early favorite to win the Republican race in Nevada next year, as he did in 2008. But his support in the state is on the decline, suggesting he may not be able to take a repeat victory for granted.
This is the fourth look we’ve taken at the GOP contest in Nevada and Romney’s support there has been on a steady decline. Last July he was at 34% in the state and he maintained that 34% standing in an October poll of Republican voters. But in January he dropped to 31% and now he’s at this 24% level. It’s no coincidence that Romney’s loss of support coincides with Pawlenty vaulting from 1% in January to now 8% in the Nevada polling. The two appeal to a similar type of voter and generally any time we’ve seen Pawlenty gain we’ve seen a corresponding Romney fall.
Mitt Romney has to be considered the favorite in the Nevada caucuses. He is Mormon and there is a large population of LDS voters who WILL march to the caucuses to vote for one of their own. Donald Trump will fade as the weeks meander towards summer.
The GOP Caucus preference:
- Romney – 24%
- Trump – 16%
- Gingrich – 11%
- Huckabee 10%
- Palin – 8%
- Pawlenty – 8%
- Bachmann – 7%
- Paul – 5%
Yeah, I would be shocked if Romney did not win Nevada.
So, let’s see how it breaks out:
- Iowa = Huckabee (if he runs)
- New Hampshire = Romney (but by how much?)
- Nevada = Romney
- South Carolina = Huckabee (if he runs)
- Florida (where the real race starts)
- Super Tuesday – ?
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President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney 46% Vs. Obama 43%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:
- President Barack Obama – 45% Vs. 52%
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Mitt Romney – 43% Vs. 43%
- Mike Huckabee – 36% Vs. 45%
- Newt Gingrich – 33% Vs. 53%
- Sarah Palin – 34% Vs. 61%
- Donald Trump – 32% Vs. 59%
The General Election:
- Romney – 46% vs. Obama – 43%
- Obama – 45% Vs. Huckabee – 43%
- Obama – 46% Vs. Gingrich – 42%
- Obama – 50% Vs. Palin – 39%
- Obama – 47% Vs. Trump – 41%
In Nevada, a key battleground state which the GOP needs to win the Presidency in 2012 is definitely in play. President Obama is in trouble in Nevada.
Barack Obama’s standing in Nevada has taken a significant turn in the wrong direction since early January and it appears he could have a much tougher time in the state next year than he did in 2008, particularly if the Republicans nominate Mitt Romney.
Obama’s approval rating in Nevada is only 45% with 52% of voters disapproving of him. That represents an 11 point negative shift in his net approval since he posted a 50/46 spread on PPP’s first 2011 poll of the state. There are two problems contributing to Obama’s poor numbers. The first is that he is very unpopular with independents, only 33% of whom express favor for the job he’s doing to 65% who disapprove. The second is that Republicans (89%) are more united in their unhappiness with Obama than Democrats (79%) are in their approval. When independents don’t like you and the opposite party dislikes you more than your own likes you, that’s pretty much always going to be a formula for bad poll numbers.
Despite his unpopularity Obama does lead 4 of the 5 Republicans we tested against him in the state, albeit by smaller margins than what he won over John McCain in 2008.
Nevada voters are leery of President Obama. Whether it is the assinine comments about Las Vegas travel, the massive unemployment or rampant house foreclosures, Nevada is increasngly looking like an Electoral College pick-up for the Republicans.
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President 2012 North Carolina Poll Watch: Obama 48% Vs. Huckabee 47%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:
President Barack Obama – 49% Vs.48%
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Newt Gingrich – 31% Vs. 50%
- Mike Huckabee – 42% Vs. 37%
- Sarah Palin – 33% Vs. 60%
- Mitt Romney – 31% Vs. 44%
- Donald Trump – 27% Vs. 62%
The General Election:
- Obama – 48% Vs. Huckabee – 47%
- Obama – 47% Vs. Romney 44%
- Obama – 49% Vs. Gingrich – 45%
- Obama – 52% Vs. Palin – 40%
- Obama – 51% Vs. Trump – 39%
PPP polling seems to think that the President is holding his own in North Carolina. But, in this point in the race for 2012, Obama is not looking particularly strong in a key battleground state that the GOP nominee must win.
Barack Obama’s poll numbers nationwide aren’t looking very good right now but one place where he’s holding up pretty well is North Carolina. His approval rating there this month is 49%, with 48% of voters disapproving. Those numbers basically mirror the results of the 2008 election in the state, pretty good given that in our national polling right now his approval spread is running 13 points behind his margin of victory against John McCain.
There are two data points key to Obama’s continued decent standing in North Carolina. In most places Obama has maintained his popularity with minorities but seen a significant decline in his popularity with white voters. Here though his 37% approval rating with whites matches the percentage of the vote we found him winning in 2008 and that combined with his 87% standing with black voters puts him on slightly positive ground overall. The other key thing for Obama is that he’s at 50/44 with independents here, basically matching his 2008 victory margin over McCain in the state with those voters and running counter to his 37/54 approval breakdown with them nationally.
Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are both withn the margin of error (4.4%) in the polls with an uncumbent President. Huckabee has NOT even made overtures to run for the office. This isn’t saying much about Obama’s strength.
The PPP polling folks, a Democratic pollster, are having some delusions of grandeur here. Obama is in trouble.
The entire poll is here.
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President 2012 West Virginia GOP Poll Watch: Hucakbee 24% Trump 24% Palin 13% Romney 11%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Mike Huckabee – 73% Vs. 10%
- Sarah Palin – 67% Vs. 18%
- Newt Gingrich – 57% Vs. 20%
- Mitt Romney – 51% Vs. 23%
- Donald Trump – 47% Vs. 33%
The GOP Primary:
- Huckabee – 24%
- Trump – 24%
- Palin – 13%
- Romney – 11%
- Gingrich – 9%
- Pawlenty – 4%
- Bachmann – 3%
- Paul – 3%
As the GOP field narrows in the next 30 days, we will see how the numbers start to move. As Karl Rove said yesterday, a GOP candidate cannot wait more than another 30-60 days to begin raising sufficient money to run their campaign. And, major GOP donors are waiting on the sidelines, waiting for the field to firm up.