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President 2012 Iowa Poll Watch: Obama 49% Vs. Romney 40%, Obama 55% Vs. Palin 35%
Electoral College vote map of Larry Sabato
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:
- President Barack Obama – 49% Vs. 46%
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Newt Gingrich – 19% vs. 63%
- Sarah Palin – 29% Vs. 63%
- Mitt Romney – 35% Vs. 47%
- Tim Pawlenty – 25% Vs. 41%
- Herman Cain – 20% vs. 40%
General Election Head to Head:
- Obama – 54% Vs. Gingrich – 33%
- Obama – 55% Vs. Palin – 35%
- Obama – 49% Vs. Romney – 40%
- Obama – 49% Vs. Pawlenty – 37%
- Obama – 50% Vs. Cain – 32%
Although President Obama is doing better in Iowa than the past polling period, his job approval ratings still lag. Obviously, Iowa voters are not happy with the current GOP Presidential field and they all perform less than John McCain in 2008.
When PPP polled Iowa in mid-April Barack Obama had negative approval numbers, was tied with Mike Huckabee, and led Mitt Romney by only 4 points in a state that he won by 10 points against John McCain in 2008. Now six weeks later Obama’s fortunes in the state have shifted dramatically, symbolizing the uptick in his political fortunes we’ve seen throughout the country in the month since the killing of Osama bin Laden. He now has positive approval numbers, doesn’t have to worry about Huckabee anymore, and has built his lead over Romney to a 9 point margin similar to what he won the last time around.
Also, Iowa is NOT considered by many to be a KEY battleground state that the GOP will need to beat Obama in the Electoral College. See the list here.
Obama’s approval numbers in Iowa aren’t that strong and it would certainly be premature to declare 17 months out from the election that he’ll win the state again. But the numbers here are another reminder that the weak Republican field is his greatest ally as he moves toward reelection, and that the GOP will have to come up with a stronger candidate to have a serious chance of defeating Obama next year.
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Chris Christie, Herman Cain, Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Paul Ryan, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty
President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: Romney 21% Cain 15% Palin 15% Gingrich 12%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Newt Gingrich – 39% Vs. 41%
- Sarah Palin – 59% Vs. 31%
- Mitt Romney – 51% Vs. 34%
- Tim Pawlenty – 48% Vs. 18%
- Herman Cain – 38% Vs. 24% Vs Not Sure = 38%
- Michele Bachmann – 53% Vs. 16%
- Jeb Bush – 51% Vs. 20%
- Ron Paul – 42% Vs. 29%
- Rick Santorum – 29% Vs. 18% Vs. Not Sure = 53%
- Rudy Giuliani – 49% Vs. 31%
- Donald Trump – 28% vs. 56%
- Jon Huntsman – 7% Vs. 23% Vs. Not Sure = 70%
- Chris Christie – 42% Vs. 12% Vs. Not Sure = 46%
- Rick Perry – 21% Vs. 16% Vs. Not Sure = 63%
- Paul Ryan – 42% Vs. 14% Vs. Not Sure = 45%
GOP Primary Caucus Head to Head:
Given the choices of Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you most like to see as
the Republican candidate for President next year?- Romney – 21%
- Palin – 15%
- Cain – 15%
- Gingrich -12%
- Pawlenty – 10%
- Ron Paul – 8%
- Jon Huntsman – 0%
If Sarah Palin does not run then?
- Romney – 26%
- Cain – 16%
- Gingrich – 15%
- Bachmann – 14%
- Pawlenty – 10%
- Paul – 11%
- Huntsman – 1%
If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
- Romney – 48% Vs. Palin – 41% Vs. Not Sure = 11%
If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
- Romney – 41% Vs. Pawlenty – 41% Vs. Not Sure = 18%
If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
- Romney – 48% Vs. Cain – 34% Vs. Not Sure = 19%
If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Romney – 46% Vs. Bachmann – 38% Vs. Not Sure = 16%
Mitt Romney is leading in Iowa ever since Mike Huckabee exited the race, but he is being challenged by a surging Herman Cain. Iowa will be the first primary state for the 2012 Presidential nominee and is a caucus state.
Cain and Palin have been the biggest beneficiaries in Iowa of Huckabee and Trump’s decisions not to run. Cain is at 15% now despite not even having been included on our last poll. Palin’s gained 7 points in the six weeks since our last poll compared to 5 point gains for Romney, Pawlenty, and Bachmann, a 3 point gain for Gingrich, and a 2 point bump for Paul.
Romney’s leading in Iowa based on his strength with centrist and center right Republican voters. With moderates he’s at 34% to 16% for Palin, 13% for Paul, and 11% for Gingrich. With ‘somewhat conservative’ voters he’s at 24% to 15% for Pawlenty, 13% for Palin, and 12% for Gingrich and Cain. His strength with those two groups outweighs his continuing weakness with the furthest right group of voters in the state, which constitute the largest segment of the Republican electorate at 41%. With those ‘very conservative’ folks Romney can muster only a fourth place finish at 13%. Cain and Palin tie for the lead with that group of voters at 19% followed by Bachmann at 15%.
I would think one would have to say that while Mitt Romney is leading, conservative candidates Cain, Palin and Bachmann are splitting votes. If Iowa conservatives were to consolidate on one candidate, then Romney is in trouble. Surprisingly, Tim Pawlenty, a moderate-conservative does the best head to head with Romney though.
Here is a summary of the favorable vs unfavorable data:
So, what does this all mean?
There is definitely room for the entry of a “new” candidate like Paul Ryan, Chris Christie or Jeb Bush. The $1 million question is whether Sarah Palin runs and if she does, whether the GOP establishment then run someone else against her, ie. Ryan,Christie or Bush?
Tim Pawlenty is not catching fire and Jon Huntsman fledgling campaign is on life support – at least in Iowa.
The entire poll is here. -
Herman Cain, Jon Huntsman, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Rudy Giuliani, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty
President 2102 Poll Watch: Giuliani 16% Vs. Romney 15% Vs. Palin 13% Vs. Paul 12% Vs. Cain 10%
According to the latest CNN/Opinion Research Poll.
- Giuliani 16%
- Romney 15%
- Palin 13%
- Paul 12%
- Cain 10%
- Gingrich 8%
- Bachmann 7%
- Pawlenty 5%
- Santorum 2%
- Huntsman 1%
- Johnson 1%
- Roemer *
- Someone else (vol.) 3%
- None/ No one (vol.) 5%
- No opinion
And, who would be your second choice?
- Romney 15%
- Giuliani 14%
- Gingrich 10%
- Bachmann 10%
- Palin 10%
- Paul 7%
- Pawlenty 6%
- Huntsman 6%
- Cain 5%
- Santorum 2%
- Johnson 2%
- Karger *
- Roemer 1%
- Someone else (vol.) 4%
- None/ No one (vol.) 8%
- No opinion 2%
An interesting poll, since it is only rumored that Rudy Giuliani is looking at the 2012 Presidential race. As I have said, I have seen no “Bat Sign” from Gotham City (New York) that Giuliani is gearing up, besides Rep. Peter King statements and his speaking engagements in New Hampshire.
But, nevertheless, this will create some buzz, that Rudy may be the anti-Romney candidate to face Sarah Palin.
GOP Primary without Rudy Giuliani:- Romney 19%
- Palin 15%
- Paul 13%
- Cain 11%
- Gingrich 11%
- Bachmann 7%
- Pawlenty 5%
- Huntsman 3%
- Santorum 2%
- Johnson 2%
- Roemer 1%
- Someone else (vol.) 3%
- None/ No one (vol.) 6%
- No opinion 2%
GOP Primary without Rudy Giuiani and Sarah Palin:
- Romney 21%
- Paul 15%
- Cain 13%
- Gingrich 12%
- Bachmann 9%
- Pawlenty 5%
- Huntsman 3%
- Santorum 3%
- Johnson 2%
- Roemer 1%
- Someone else (vol.) 5%
- None/ No one (vol.) 9%
- No opinion 2%
This is a shocking poll with regards to Rudy Giuliani but shows his strength within the GOP. This is not a good poll for Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman who wish to be the anti-Romney candidate. This poll also demonstrates that while Mitt Romney may be the front runner at this time, his strength is WEAK.
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President 2012 Ohio GOP Poll Watch: Romney 21% Vs. Sarah Palin 16% Vs. Herman Cain 12%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Sarah Palin – 66% vs. 24%
- Mitt Romney – 55% Vs. 25%
- Newt Gingrich – 42% vs. 34%
GOP Primary Head to Head:
- Romney – 21%
- Palin – 16%
- Cain – 12%
- Gingrich – 12%
- Bachmann – 10%
- Paul – 9%
- Pawlenty – 5%
- Huntsman – 1%
- Someone else/not sure – 15%
The entire poll is here.
Romney’s ahead in Ohio because he has a broad lead with voters describing themselves as ‘somewhat conservative,’ getting 27% with Gingrich coming in second at 14%. He’s also ahead with moderates at 22% to Palin’s 18%. Voters falling into the ‘very conservative’ camp continue to be a problem for him though. His favorability with them is a +37 spread at 61/24. That puts him a whooping 33 points below Palin’s standing with that same group, which is a +70 spread at 83/13.
Palin leads the horse race with those voters at 20% with Michele Bachmann at 15%, and Romney tying Cain for third at 13%. Maybe voters on the far right will split their votes enough that their lack of support doesn’t cost Romney the nomination but for now they look like they could be a big problem.
Ohio is a key battleground state and one that the GOP desperately needs to win the general election in the Electoral College. Sarah Palin is showing some signs of a resurgence in the polling now that Mike Huckabee has left the race. I suspect votes for Hermain Cain would go to Palin once she officially declares her candidacy.
Tim Pawlenty is trailing badly and Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann are looking more like an anti-Romney candidate (s).
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President 2012 Ohio Poll Watch: Obama 46% Romney 42%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:
- President Barack Obama – 46% Vs. 49%
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Mitt Romney – 32% Vs. 43%
- Newt Gingrich – 22% Vs. 59%
- Sarah Palin – 34% Vs. 58%
General Election Head to Head:
- Obama – 46% Vs. Romney – 42%
- Obama – 50% Vs. Palin – 40%
- Obama – 49% Vs. Gingrich – 40%
The margin of error in this poll is 4.1%.
Mitt Romney is far and above the best polling GOP candidate in Ohio and is withn the margin of error in this key battleground state.
President Obama is still in decent shape to take Ohio’s newly thinned slate of electors next year, if a little weaker than when PPP last polled the crucial swing state in mid-March. Then, he led his closest competitor, Mitt Romney, 46-40. Romney has closed the gap a little, to 46-42, as have Newt Gingrich (from 50-38 to 49-40) and even Sarah Palin (from 52-36 to 50-40). In a hypothetical matchup with Sen. Rob Portman, Obama would prevail, 48-38.
There is good news for the president, though, in that even his close lead over Romney is essentially the same as his five-point victory over John McCain in 2008. That result comes even in an electorate that reports having voted for him by only one point over McCain—indicating that turnout from Obama’s base is still lagging, as it did last fall, when Portman won election by a whopping 18 points.
Mitt Romney has a chance against the President in Ohio but he will have to step up his game or hopes the economy tanks in order to beat him.
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Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Tim Pawlenty
President 2012 New Hampshire GOP Poll Watch: Romney 32% Paul 9% Gingrich 6% Palin 5% Bachmann 4%
According to the latest University of New Hampshire/WMUR/CNN Poll.
Primary Election Head to Head:
- Romney 32%
- Paul 9%
- Gingrich 6%
- Giuliani 6%
- Palin 5%
- Bachmann 4%
- Cain 4%
- Daniels # 4%
- Huntsman 4%
- Pawlenty 4%
- Santorum 2%
- Johnson *
- Someone else 3%
- No opinion 17%
* Less than 1% # Daniels announced that he would not run on last day of interviewing.
Satisfied with GOP candidates? – Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice of candidates for the Republican nomination for President next year? Are you
very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
- Very satisfied 9%
- Somewhat satisfied 42%
- Somewhat dissatisfied 28%
- Very dissatisfied 15%
- No opinion 6%
Strongest GOP Leader:
- Romney 40%
- Giuliani 12%
- Gingrich 11%
- Palin 3%
- Paul 3%
- Pawlenty 3%
- Bachmann 2%
- Cain 1%
- Daniels 1%
- Santorum 1%
- Huntsman *
- Johnson *
- Someone else 2%
- No opinion 20%
Most Believable GOP candidate:
- Romney 20%
- Paul 12%
- Gingrich 7%
- Palin 6%
- Bachmann 5%
- Cain 5%
- Giuliani 5%
- Pawlenty 5%
- Huntsman 4%
- Daniels 3%
- Santorum 2%
- Someone else 2%
- No opinion 23%
Most Likeable GOP candidate:
- Romney 29%
- Palin 10%
- Giuliani 8%
- Paul 7%
- Bachmann 6%
- Pawlenty 6%
- Gingrich 4%
- Cain 3%
- Huntsman 2%
- Santorum 2%
- Daniels 1%
- Johnson *
- Karger *
- Roemer *
- Someone else 3%
- No opinion 17%
Best GOP candidate to beat President Obama:
- Romney 42%
- Giuliani 4%
- Pawlenty 4%
- Daniels 3%
- Gingrich 3%
- Palin 3%
- Bachmann 2%
- Cain 2%
- Huntsman 2%
- Paul 1%
- Santorum 1%
- Someone else 2%
- No opinion 31%
Is there any doubt that Mitt Romney is far and above any other candidate in New Hampshire?
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President 2012: Bill Bennett Puts a Stake in the Heart of Newt Gingrich
The audio is here and listen to it all as Bill Bennett dissects Newt Gingrich while he is still alive.
And, Jennifer Rubin takes Bennett’s knife and twists it.
It is a stunningly effective interview, revealing Gingrich to be both unprincipled and dishonest. In as pleasant a tone possible, Bennett undoes the former House speaker, eventually telling him he didn’t advance the cause of conservatism on “Meet the Press.”
Bennett was understandably not willing to write Gingrich’s epitaph. But he came close. And really, Gingrich did himself in, as he always has.
Newt, it is over….
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President 2012: Newt Gingrich, Paul Ryan and Medicare Reforms
Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich is out before he was ever in the 2012 Presidential race with his criticism of Rep. Paul Ryan’s Medicare reform plan.
This morning Republicans are just beginning to assess the damage that former House Speaker and current presidential candidate Newt Gingrich has done to the GOP budget plan currently before Congress. On “Meet the Press” Sunday, Gingrich denounced House Budget Committee chairman Paul Ryan’s plan to restructure Medicare, saying, “I don’t think right-wing social engineering is any more desirable than left-wing social engineering. I don’t think imposing radical change from the right or the left is a very good way for a free society to operate.”
On his radio program Monday morning, former Education Secretary Bill Bennett, who knows Gingrich well but is also close to Ryan, reacted angrily to Gingrich’s remarks. Referring to Ryan’s Medicare plan as “right-wing social engineering” is, Bennett said, “an unforgivable mistake, in my judgment.” Bennett went on to say that Gingrich “has taken himself out of serious consideration for the [2012] race.”
Yeah, I would say Newt is toast for his hypocrisy alone on ObamaCare.
The individual mandate is unconstitutional and is at the heart of ObamaCare. Newt understand this and in efforts to stand out from the GOP Presidential crowd has shot himself in the foot.
Say good night, Gracie.
Here is today’s video of Gingrich trying to climb back after his Meet the Press performance yesterday.
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Chris Christie, John Kasich, Michele Bachmann, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, President 2012, Sarah Palin, Scott Walker
President 2012: Huckabee is Out – Michele, Newt and Mitch In?
The presidential nominating process is a lot like the US Open tennis tournament. There is a final (the Republican v. Obama), a semifinal (the top conservative against the top moderate for the GOP nomination) and a quarter final (the conservatives against each other and the moderates competing together for the right to enter the semis).
Mitt Romney and Donald Trump are centrists. Businessmen, economic growth free market types who will vie with each other for the moderate nomination. In 2008, Romney fought and lost to Huckabee for the conservative nod to oppose McCain. But, because of his health care position, he now has to fight it out on the moderate court.
Mike Huckabee’s withdrawal opens the way on the right court for Gingrich, Bachmann, and Daniels. Had Mike run, he would have easily carried the day and faced Romney/Trump for the nomination. But, with Mike out, it’s an open field.
Bachmann has the most to gain from Huckabee’s withdrawal. Polling shows that the Tea Party types and the evangelicals are more or less the same people. With Mike out, Michele has a clear shot at their support (once they get over Herman Cain and Ron Paul, neither of whom can win — and Paul shouldn’t win). As the odd-woman-out dissenting from the Boehner deals with Obama, holding out for fiscal conservatism and tough Republican bargaining, she can pick up a lot of ground in a hurry.
Gingrich’s announcement puts the onus on him to dispel the negatives that dog his campaign. All agree that he would be the best opponent to Obama in a debate and that he is the brightest, best candidate would have. But many are scared off because of the negatives. He has six months to show them that they are wrong.
And then there is Mitch Daniels, potentially, the conservative establishment’s answer to Romney. Despite an absence of charisma, his extraordinary record as governor puts him right in the thick of the hunt for the nomination. He, along with his supporters (Scott Walker of Wisconsin, Chris Christie of New Jersey, and John Kasich of Ohio), have walked the walk not just talked the talk. His candidacy is a most attractive one.
And, if Sarah Palin decides to come in now, I would say the battle for the social conservatives will really heat up.
Newt Gingrich with his personal baggage should be used as a foil against Obama but he is unelectable – too old and too damaged.
Mitt Romney will have to compete in Iowa and will probably take a loss there even with Huckabee not in the race. Romney will be vulnerable in South Carolina too –then on to Florida.
Exit question: Will Mitch Daniels with Scott Walker, John Kasich and Chris Christie endorsing him be able to beat Michele Bachmann in Iowa?
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Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin
President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Gets a Bounce – Obama – 47% Vs. Romney – 42%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
The killing of Osama bin Laden has given Barack Obama a bounce in his approval ratings. But it doesn’t appear to have boosted his chances for reelection.
PPP this month finds Obama with a 49% approval rating to 43% of voters who disapprove. That’s a seven point improvement on the margin since last month’s national survey when slightly more voters (48%) gave him poor marks for his work than good ones (47%). Obama’s greatest improvement has come with Republicans (from 8% approval to 14%). He’s up with independents (from 44% to 49%) and with Democrats (from 81% to 83%) by smaller amounts.
More voters may like Obama for the moment, but there aren’t more planning to support him next year. Last month Obama led the Huckabee/Romney/Palin/Gingrich quartet by an average of 10.75 points. This month Obama leads those same four candidate by an average of…10.75 points. There’s been no improvement in his reelect numbers whatsoever since the bin Laden death and if there hasn’t been in the week after the killing it doesn’t seem likely there will be 18 months after the killing either. What Obama’s approval bounce appears to be is an increase in the percentage of people who say they like him, but still won’t vote for him. They appreciate him taking out bin Laden but that’s not going to outweigh everything he’s done that they don’t like over the course of the last 27 months.
Approval Vs. Disapproval:
- Mike Huckabee – 33% Vs. 41%
- Sarah Palin – 33% Vs. 60%
- Newt Gingrich – 29% Vs. 53%
- Mitt Romney – 32% Vs. 41%
- Donald Trump – 24% Vs. 65%
- Mitch Daniels – 14% Vs. 33% Vs. 53% (not sure)
Again, voters are not amored with the Republican Presidetial candidates and the one new face, Mitch Daniels is not really known.
We also tested Mitch Daniels on this poll and he trails 48-34 but what might be most interesting is his favorability numbers with Republicans. Only 23% express a favorable opinion of him to 25% with an unfavorable one. I think a fair amount of that ‘unfavorable’ rating can be explained by voters who rate just about any politician they’ve never heard of negatively- which I think is about 10% of the population- but those are not impressive numbers by any stretch of the imagination. Beltway journalists are clearly a lot more enamored with Daniels than actual GOP voters are.
General Election Head to Head:
- Obama – 49% Vs. Huckabee – 42%
- Obama – 54% Vs. Palin – 37%
- Obama – 52% Vs. Gingrich – 38%
- Obama – 47% Vs. Romney – 42%
Again, this is a national poll and the election contest is in key battleground sates. But, it is surprising that Obama did not receive more of a bounce with the killing of Osama Bin Laden. This event will fade with time.
What the GOP nominess should hope is that their favorability improves.
The entire poll is here.
PPP surveyed 814 American voters from May 5th to 8th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political
organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times
found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.