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President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney 49% Vs Obama 47%, Obama 50% Vs. Perry 45%
According to the latest USA Today/Gallup Poll.President Obama finds himself in close races with his two leading GOP rivals, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll released Monday.
Among registered voters, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney edges Obama, 49 percent to 47 percent. The president leads Texas Gov. Rick Perry, 50 percent to 45 percent.
Though he leads Obama, Romney isn’t GOP voters’ top choice for the nomination. Perry attracts 31 percent support from Republicans and Republican-leaning independents while Romney has 24 percent. Texas Rep. Ron Paul comes in third with 13 percent. Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and businessman Herman Cain each receive 5 percent support. Bachmann has plummeted eight points since the last USA Today/Gallup poll, released in early August. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman round out the field with 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively.
According to the new survey, 53 percent of voters say they want a Republican nominee who is best positioned to defeat President Obama, and 43 percent say they want a candidate who agrees with them on nearly all issues.
These numbers should shift around again after this Thursday’s debate in Orlando, Florida. For now, it is a two person race for the GOP nomination and President Obama is not assured of re-election.
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President 2012 Pennsylvania Poll Watch: Obama 50% Vs. Romney 40% and Obama 52% Vs. Perry 37%
According to the latest Magellan Strategies Poll.
Magellan Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 702 likely 2012 Pennsylvania general election voters.
The survey finds Barack Obama comfortably leading potential Republican challengers Mitt Romney by 10 points (50% to 40%) and Rick Perry by 15 points (52% to 37%). The President has solid support among voters that overwhelmingly backed him in 2008, including women, voters aged 18 to 34, and self-described moderate voters. It is clear from this survey that those key voting subgroups are still very much with him. Despite this good news for Barack Obama, the mood of these voters is pessimistic, with 62% of women, 64% of self-described moderates, and 54% of voters 18 to 34 feeling things in the country are on the wrong track. It remains to be seen if the eventual Republican nominee can appeal to these voters after the primary.
Pennsylvania is not a key battleground state for the GOP. President Obama handily won Pennyslvania in 2008.
But, should Pennsylvania flip to the Republican Presidential candidate, the path for Obama to 270 Electoral College votes is much more difficult. The party registration in Pennsylvania is 51% Democrat, 37% Republican and 12% Independent/Other.
It seems Pennsylvania is always mentioned as being in play, but a Republican Presidential candidate has not won the state since George H.W. Bush in 1988.
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President 2012: Michele Bachmann Compares Rick Perry and HPV Vaccine to President Obama With Solyndra
Republican presidential candidate Congresswoman Michele Bachmann greets her supporters during a rally for the Orange County Republican Party in Costa Mesa, California September 16, 2011
Michele Bachman comes out guns a’blazing today in the OC.Michele Bachmann, struggling to regain her footing in the GOP presidential contest, Friday assailed rival Rick Perry, saying he abused his power as governor of Texas and rewarded political donors in a manner similar to President Obama.
“It’s wrong to abuse executive authority with unilateral action, and of course the governor of Texas admitted as much that he made a mistake,” Bachmann said, speaking to reporters after holding a rally in Costa Mesa. “People don’t want a president or a governor making decisions based on political connections. It’s wrong.”
The Minnesota congresswoman was referring to an executive order signed by Perry requiring that young girls be vaccinated against a sexually transmitted virus that can cause cervical cancer that was made by a company that donated to Perry’s campaigns.
She compared it to the federal controversy unfolding around Solyndra, a solar equipment maker that received a $535-million federal loan guarantee and which went bankrupt last month. Republicans have suggested that the guarantee was pushed by the White House to reward a major campaign donor with ties to Solyndra’s biggest shareholder, a charge the Obama administration denies.
Bachmann also sought to tie Perry’s effort, which was ultimately blocked by the Texas Legislature, to Obama’s healthcare law in a Web video and fundraising appeal to supporters in which she dubs his efforts as “Perrycare,” a riff on the “Obamacare” label that some use to describe the president’s healthcare reform package.
“Whether it’s Obamacare or Perrycare, I oppose any governor or president who mandates a family’s healthcare choices,” Bachmann says in the video. “Especially if the decision-making process occurs behind closed doors, bypassing legislative action, and favors campaign contributors over families.”
I don’t know if this is going to stick to Rick Perry, but Bachmann who is down in the polls lately will not go quietly. She will address the California Republican Party tonight and then she will appear on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Rick Perry’s Ponzi Scheme Comment on Social Security a Non-Issue?
Yes, according to the latest Gallup Poll.Texas Gov. and presidential candidate Rick Perry’s comments on Social Security, which include calling it a “Ponzi scheme,” appear to be a non-issue for most Republicans. However, they could cost him support with independents should he ultimately win the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. As many Republicans say they are more likely to vote for Perry for president because of his views on Social Security as say they are less likely — 19% each. Among independents, 12% are more likely to vote for him and 32% less likely.
These results are from a Sept. 13-14 USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted less than a week after Perry made his comments about Social Security during the Sept. 9 Republican presidential debate — repeating something that appears in his book “Fed Up,” published last year. Perry’s chief rival for the Republican presidential nomination, Mitt Romney, has subsequently jumped on the issue as a way to paint Perry as out of touch with mainstream views and unelectable.
In fact, Perry’s statements on Social Security are more likely to harm his campaign indirectly by weakening his perceived viability than they are to turn off Republicans who disagree with his views. In contrast to the 19% of Republicans who say they would personally be less likely to support Perry over his Social Security views, 37% believe those views would hurt his chances of being elected president if he were the GOP nominee. Just 17% say they will help his chances.
I think most American voters understand how current social security recipients are not drawing upon funds that they paid into the system. They realize it is the young folks who are having money withdrawn form their pay checks that is funding their retirement.
But……social security has been a successful program and Texas Governor Rick Perry may do OK with Republicans in a primary election but will struggle in a general election unless he clarifies his remarks.
President Obama and his media meisters will try to scare senior citizens (who vote in great numbers) into thinking that Perry will end Social Security. Perry and the Republicans cannot allow this to happen.
Independents tilt even more strongly toward perceiving the issue hurts rather than helps Perry’s electability, 40% vs. 11%.
The chart:
The majority of Republicans DO want to preserve Social Security.The chart:
So, what does this all mean?Rick Perry will “walk back” his comments on social security and develop a Paul Ryan type plan to “save” the system. If Perry does not, he will be attacked unmercifully by Mitt Romney in Florida where there are many social security recipients who will vote in the early GOP primary election. Note this poll on Republicans is early without the benefit of a negative Romney media campaign.
Perry will not have to worry about the Democrats spinning his statements on Social Security because he will not be the GOP nominee.
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President 2012 GOP Florida Poll Watch: Rick Perry 29% Vs. Romney 20%
According to the latest Florida Times-Union Insider Advantage Poll.Floridians give Texas Gov. Rick Perry a comfortable lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in the Florida Times-Union/Insider Advantage poll, the first taken after Monday night’s GOP presidential debate in Tampa.
With strong backing from men and voters younger than 45, Perry holds a 29 percent to 20 percent lead over Romney in the survey of 456 registered Republicans who plan to vote in next year’s primary.
Twenty-one percent remain undecided.
The poll was taken the day after the seven other GOP candidates took repeated debate shots at Perry, now considered the national frontrunner. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
Rick Perry continues as the front-runner and Florida looms as a must win state for Mitt Romney. The media war will be brutal there and will start soon after the start of the new year.
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President 2012 Virginia Poll Watch: Romney 44% Vs. Obama 42%, Obama 44% Vs. Perry 42%
The 2008 Presidential Electoral College ResultsLooks like another state which President Obama won in 2008 is flipping to the GOP. Too many more, like Florida, North Carolina, Indiana and Ohio and Obama loses in the Electoral College.
On to the Quinnipiac Poll.Voters in Virginia, a key state in President Obama’s 2008 winning coalition, disapprove 54 – 40 percent of the job he is doing, down from a 48 – 48 percent split in a June 30 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Obama does not deserve four more years, voters say 51 – 41 percent.
In possible 2012 matchups, Obama has 44 percent to Perry’s 42 percent, while Romney gets 44 percent to Obama’s 42 percent, all too close to call. Obama does much better against two other Republicans, besting Bachmann 48 – 37 percent and Palin 50 – 35 percent.
“At this point Romney and Perry both are in a horse race against President Barack Obama, challenging Romney’s ‘electability’ argument,” said Brown. “The big difference is among independent voters, where Romney holds a solid 44 – 35 percent lead, and Perry is in a 40 – 40 percent dead heat with the president.”
Obama’s job approval is plummeting among independent voters, who disapprove 62 – 29 percent, compared to a 54 – 41 percent disapproval June 30. Republicans disapprove 87 – 11 percent while Democrats approve 83 – 13 percent, down from 92 – 5 percent in June. Men disapprove 61 – 36 percent, as women disapprove 49 – 43 percent. White voters disapprove 67 – 28 percent, while black voters approve 83 – 11 percent.
In the GOP primary battle for the nomination, Rick Perry leads.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney as the presidential choice of Virginia Republicans 25 – 19 percent, with U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann at 5 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Perry tops Romney 43 – 36 percent in a two-man faceoff, but both run neck and neck against President Barack Obama.
No other GOP White House aspirant breaks into double-digits among Virginia Republicans and GOP-leaning independent voters. Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul gets 8 percent, with former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin at 7 percent, businessman Herman Cain at 6 percent, Bachmann at 5 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 4 percent, former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum at 2 percent and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman at 1 percent.
There is a sizable gender gap in the Perry-Romney two-man race. Perry leads among men 49 – 33 percent, but trails by a narrow 40 – 37 percent among women. Perry also laps Romney 51 – 29 percent among white evangelical Christians, a key part of the GOP coalition. Among military households the two are in a statistical tie tipping to Perry 40 – 38 percent.
Another key battleground state, Virginia, is in serious jeopardy for President Obama. This far away from the election, Obama is now in serious trouble putting together a winning margin in the Electoral College. Even the Field Poll in very blue California had Obama struggling.
If the President does not show some movement soon, he will be a one term President.
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President 2012: Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval Endorses Rick Perry for President
Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval, right, talks with Washington governor Christine Gregoire before the start of a panel discussion on energy at the National Clean Energy Summit, Tuesday, Aug. 30, 2011
A very important pick up for Rick Perry.Rick Perry has picked up a key endorsement in his bid for the 2012 Republican nomination. Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval announced late Tuesday he’ll back the Texas governor in the race, giving Perry an important show of support in a key early GOP caucus state and likely swing state in 2012.
The move isn’t so surprising: Perry and Sandoval have long been considered close political allies. But Sandoval’s endorsement is a blow to Mitt Romney’s campaign.
The former Massachusetts governor won the Republican caucuses in the state in 2008 and needs a win there again next year to further his hopes of winning the 2012 nomination.
Romney had been wooing Sandoval for months in hopes of securing an endorsement. Indeed, Romney has spent more time in Nevada than his rivals in recent months, visiting the state just last week where he delivered a speech in North Las Vegas detailing his jobs plan. The ex-governor has received the backing of two other key Republicans in the state—Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki and Rep. Joe Heck, who both backed him in 2008.
But since joining the race last month, Perry has suggested he wouldn’t cede the state to Romney. Sandoval’s support is a major boost for the Texas governor, given how popular the top Nevada official is with GOP voters in the state. Sandoval is also considered a rising star in GOP political circles and, as a Hispanic, could help with Perry’s push to woo Latino voters.
“Gov. Rick Perry has the strongest record of job creation, fiscal discipline, and executive branch leadership among the presidential candidates,” Sandoval said in a statement Tuesday. “As a governor, Rick Perry created a tremendous blueprint for job creation and as president, I know he will get America working again.”
This will force Romney to defend Nevada where every one considered him a favorite to win the caucuses. There is a large LDS Mormon population in Nevada and they considered to all come out for Mitt Romney.
Rick Perry will probably test a television media strategy that will carry him into South Carolina and Florida in the following few weeks after the Nevada caucuses.
The Hispanic link with Sandoval cannot be go unrecognized as Perry has been accused by conservative pundits as being soft on illegal immigration, after signing a Texas Dream Act in Texas that gives reduced college tuition to the children of illegal immigrants. The question remains as to whether Romney will call out Perry on immigration in the Nevada campaign.
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President 2012 Video: Kay Bailey Hutchison’s Un-aired Rick Perry Attack Ad on Gardasil Government Injection
This ad is pretty devastating. It was leaked by GOP operatives over to Ben Smith, the lefty blogger at Politico. But, we kind of know who let it out of the archives, now don’t we?
The subject is the HPV mandate that has haunted Perry since the 2007 order mandating it, though he first suggested he’d erred on the question last month. The ad features a young girl singing to the tune of “ABC” about Perry’s mandate and his alleged cronyism with a Merck lobbyist.
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President 2102 GOP Poll Watch: Rick Perry Leads But Mitt Romney Gaining in Favorability
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Mitt Romney is the only announced candidate whose Positive Intensity Score has improved significantly in recent weeks. His current 16 is up from 11 in late August and is his highest rating since mid-July, thus narrowing the gap with Perry. Rudy Giuliani, who has yet to decide if he will run, still edges out Romney with an 18.
Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann have seen significant declines in their Positive Intensity Scores since late August. Palin, who has also not decided whether to run, is down six points, from 16 to 10, and Bachmann is down three points, from 13 to 10. Both women are now at new lows for the year, with Bachmann’s score cut in half since early August.
Of course, this poll was taken before last night, but shows some movement since the Reagan Presidential Library debate the week prior where the Social Security – Ponzi Scheme Flap reared its ugly head. Interesting that Rudy Giuliani continues to poll better than Mitt Romney.
With just under five months remaining before Republican primary voters start casting ballots for the 2012 Republican nomination, Perry continues to generate more positive intensity from Republicans who know him than any other announced or potential candidate Gallup tracks. This is particularly notable because Perry has managed to maintain a strong Positive Intensity Score as his recognition among Republicans has expanded from 55% in July to 75% today. Romney, however, remains better known, and has recently seen his sagging Positive Intensity Score rebound, although he still lags significantly behind Perry on this measure.
The news is not as good for Bachmann, who has lost much of the passionate support she generated as recently as early August. Positive intensity for Palin among national Republicans has also slipped to a new low for the year.
Republicans’ views of Paul, Gingrich, Santorum, and Huntsman all seem to be in a holding pattern at levels seemingly keeping these men out of serious contention for the nomination. Huntsman does particularly poorly in Republicans’ eyes, and is the only candidate tracked whose Positive Intensity Score is a net negative, meaning that more Republicans who know him have a strongly unfavorable opinion than have a strongly favorable opinion.
Cain continues to be an anomaly, scoring high in positive intensity among those who know him, yet unable to push his recognition above the 50% level, and scoring low in trial-heat ballot measures.
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President 2012 Poll Watch: Rick Perry Being Hurt by Social Security Flap?
Looks like it according the latest PPP Poll.Americans strongly disagree with the statements Rick Perry made about Social Security in last week’s Republican Presidential debate, and Barack Obama has nearly doubled his lead over Perry nationally in the span of just 3 weeks.
Only 20% of voters agree with Perry that Social Security is a Ponzi scheme to 70% who dissent from that statement. Democrats (4/87) and independents (20/69) are pretty universal in their disagreement with Perry and even Republicans (39/49) don’t stand with him on this one. When it comes to the possibility of actually ending Social Security voters are even more unanimous- 82% oppose taking that step to only 10% who would be supportive of it. If Perry ends up as the Republican nominee and Democrats can effectively convince the electorate that he does want to end Social Security it could be an extremely damaging issue for him.
In fact it appears that Perry’s rhetoric on Social Security could already be causing him problems. When PPP did a national poll three weeks ago Barack Obama led Perry by only 6 points at 49-43. Now that gap has widened to 11 points at 52-41. The main movement has come with Democratic voters. On the previous poll Obama had only a 68 point lead with the party base at 81-13 but now it’s 80 points at 89-9. We know there are a lot of Democratic voters disenchanted with Obama right now but if the GOP puts forward someone like Perry who’s willing to go after one of the Holy Grails of the party’s orthodoxy like Social Security it might scare those voters back into the fold.
In addition to his horse race numbers taking a wrong turn Perry’s favorability numbers are worse than they were 3 weeks ago as well. Only 30% of voters have a positive opinion of him to 50% with a negative one. That’s down from an already not so stellar 33/47 spread. Republicans certainly like him but with independents (23/51) and Democrats (9/74) favor is virtually nonexistent.
I’ll take this poll with a grain of salt until I see a few more GOP Presidential polls which I am positive are in the field now. But, Rick Perry did not perform well last night in Tampa and many pundits are now considering Mitt Romney as the “safer” candidate to run against President Obama. Some have even hinted that more candidates may be recruited to enter the field.
This would probably not be a bad idea.
The polls in the next few days will either bolster Perry or spell a quick demise.