-
President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Bachmann and Pawlenty Gaining in GOP Field?
Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., speaks in St. Paul, Minnesota on June 18, 2011
Yes, according to the latest AP-GfK Poll.- Republicans still give Romney the highest favorability rating among announced candidates, at 61 percent. Palin, who’s keeping everyone guessing about her intentions, is holding steady, too, with a 63 percent favorability rating.
- Bachmann’s favorability rating jumped from 41 percent to 54 percent among Republicans. A third still have no opinion about her, and it’s too soon to tell if her boost will endure or was a June phenomenon.
- Huntsman, who announced his candidacy this week but still is relatively unknown nationally, had a 23 percent favorability rating among Republicans. He’s gotten better known — 59 percent had no opinion about him in the latest poll, down slightly from 66 percent a month earlier. But the result was an increase in those with an unfavorable opinion, from 11 percent to 17 percent, with a greater uptick among tea party supporters.
- Pawlenty, one of the first to get into the race, saw his favorable ratings rise 10 percentage points to 43 percent. His support among tea party backers was up 11 points.
The poll was conducted June 16-20 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The survey included 429 Republicans, and that subset had a larger, 6.2 percentage point margin of error.
This is a national poll and still has Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin as the leaders.
Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty are gaining in favorability because they are becoming better known.
I want to see the polling with Sarah Palin out of the race and Rick Perry in, but we will have to wait for these match-ups until toward the end of summer.
-
President 2012 GOP Florida Poll Watch: Romney 27% Palin 17% Bachmann 17% Cain 10%
The favorability chart of Florida Presidential candidates
According to the latest PPP Poll.Mitt Romney has a double digit lead for the Republican Presidential nomination in Florida, further cementing his front runner status in the wake of Mike Huckabee’s exit from the race.
Romney is at 27% to 17% for Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann, 10% for Herman Cain, 8% for Newt Gingrich, 7% for Ron Paul, 4% for Tim Pawlenty, and 2% for Jon Huntsman.
Romney now has the outright lead in PPP’s most recent polls in all 5 of the key early Republican contests: in addition to the Florida advantage he’s up by 9 in South Carolina, 6 in Iowa, 15 in Nevada, and 23 in New Hampshire.
Mitt Romney continues to poll well in Florida and can be continued to be regarded as the front-runner. But Michelle Bachmann has surged. So, has Herman Cain.
With the likelihood that Sarah Palin will NOT run for the Presidency and with Bachmann’s likely good showing in Iowa and South Carolina, Florida may be the momentum state for Bachmann to overtake Mitt Romney. Bachmann has a real chance here in picking up Palin and Cain voters once they are out of the race.
But, Sarah Palin remains the wild card and should she run, she might enable Mitt Romney to split the conservative Tea Party vote and win with all of the rest.
Beyond Romney’s continued strength the big stories here are the rise of Michele Bachmann and the collapse of Newt Gingrich. Bachmann’s 17% standing represents a 10 point gain from PPP’s last Florida poll in late March, when she stood at only 7%. Her strength comes from leading the field with ‘very conservative’ voters at 21%, followed by Palin at 20%, and Romney at 18%.
Romney’s Florida lead is built on a familiar formula. He’s not winning with the far right voters who constitute a plurality of the Republican electorate, but he’s at least staying competitive with them. Meanwhile he’s dominating the field with moderates (a 36-15 lead over Palin) and with voters who identify themselves as just ‘somewhat conservative’ (a 32-15 advantage over Bachmann.)
-
President 2012: Michele Bachmann on Afghanistan = “Stay the Course”
As President Obama announces Afghanistan tropp withdrawals, likely GOP Presidential candidate Michele Bachmann takes a different approach. Here is her statement in an interview with The Weekly Standard.
On Afghanistan, I firmly believe that we are at a point where we’ve got to stay the course, and we’ve got to finish the job. Reports coming out of Helmand right now are positive. … David Petraeus, who wrote the book on counterinsurgency and on the surge strategy, is successfully prosecuting the surge.
Now, President Obama has not told the story the way President Bush did. President Bush did let the country know where we were at, and I give him a lot of credit because when he was getting all sorts of invective pointed against him, he stood against the world for what he knew to be right in dealing with terrorism. And perhaps no other would have stood the way that he did. I give him great credit for that.
Now in Afghanistan, we are making great progress. We have to win southern Afghanistan, then we have to go on and win eastern Afghanistan. I believe that we will be victorious, and we’ll end it. I understand why people are frustrated. I completely understand. But I do trust General Petraeus in that effort and in what he is doing over there. And I think that they are doing what we need to do.
This is a constrast to both President Obama and the GOP’s Mitt Romney. But, it is a safe policy position and what Obama’s general are recommending.
However, American voters are tired of years of war (on the LEFT and RIGHT) and the massive costs associated with them, especially with Osama Bin Laden’s death.
And, remember Obama’s troop withdrawals will be modest at best.
-
President 2012: Michele Bachmann Hones Strategy and Orders Ed Rollins to Apologize to Sarah Palin
U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) speaks during the Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans, Louisiana June 17, 2011
Michele Bachmann is making some very smart moves.Since being elected to Congress in 2006, Bachmann has been one of the most outspoken — and controversial — members of the House. She’s also shown a tendency to veer wildly off message — as she did in 2008 when she suggested then Senator Barack Obama might harbor “anti-American” views.
Bachmann’s newly installed political team has had its own battles with message discipline — typified by campaign manager Ed Rollins’ recent comments alleging that former Alaska governor Sarah Palin hasn’t been “serious” over the last few years.
After the incident, Bachmann was “very firm” with Rollins, according to an adviser to the congresswoman, telling him this should not happen again and that there should be “no more press”. Bachmann also demanded that Rollins call the Palin people and apologize. “She is definitely not tone deaf,” the source added.Bachmann’s move to limit her exposure in the wake of her debate performance is a smart strategy designed to avoid accidentally trampling on the momentum she built with that performance.
The question for Bachmann — as it is for all candidates who have never been subjected to the intense scrutiny of a presidential race — is whether she can maintain that message discipline over the grinding months on the campaign trail to come.
Message discipline is something Sarah Palin has never been able to grasp and to her detriment – as her negative favorable polling demonstrates. But, if Bachmann can refine her message and concentrate on defeating Romney, she may find far better success than any of the pundits would have predicted a few months ago. She is a natural for Iowa and South Carolina and NO other GOP candidate can come close to competing with her in those states.
And, Ed Rollins, while very capable and who has a track record of success, does have a habit of running off at the mouth. Putting the brakes on Rollins, while ingratiating yourself to Sarah Palin who, if she does not run, WILL do events and fundraising for you is a no-brain decision.
It’s a near-certainty that Bachmann will slip as she did when she suggested that the battle of Lexington and Concord was fought in New Hampshire.
An isolated error or misstep here and there is to be expected and will be committed by every candidate in the field — including President Obama. (Remember arugula!)
But, for Bachmann the bar will be higher (or lower depending on where you are standing) since there is a narrative ready and waiting to be written — because of her past public flubs — that she is too prone to straying off message to win the nomination.
That is a dangerous storyline for Bachmann. To her credit, she seems to grasp that fact and is taking steps to counteract it.
-
President 2012: Does Texas Governor Rick Perry Have a Path to the GOP Nomination?
In this June 12, 2011, photo Texas Gov. Rick Perry speaks at a United For Life event, organized by an Hispanic anti-abortion group, in Los Angeles
I would say NO because among other things he has waited too long.Perry would sort of be damned if he does (enter Iowa and lose to Bachmann and/or other opponents) and damned if he doesn’t (Bachmann or Pawlenty gain momentum heading into Iowa). And New Hampshire is probably the least friendly early primary state for him. He’s strong on social issues; many in the Granite State lean libertarian. He slams the Democrats and weak-kneed Republicans; New Hampshire allows independents and Democrats to vote. Perry gives fiery speeches, but he’s not known as a policy maven; New Hampshire-ites expect loads of town halls and coffees where they can quiz the candidate on everything from the flat tax to waste and abuse in the Department of Veterans Affairs.
What then would be his first clear shot — South Carolina? It’s sounding a little bit Rudy Giulianish (waiting too long to impress takes you out of contention).
Then, there will be questions about his SQUISHY conservatism while pandering to Hispanics and his Texas state budget deficit. His record of stealing jobs from California and then boasting about it will not endear hm to California GOP voters.
I don’t see how Perry can attract enough donors to support a candidacy all the way to South Carolina, where he may still lose to Romney and Bachmann.
So, I don’t really think Governor Perry enters the race.
-
California, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Polling, President 2012, Rick Perry, Rudy Giuliani, Sarah Palin
President 2012 California GOP Poll Watch: Romney 25% Giuliani 17% Palin 10% Paul 7%
According to the latest Field Poll.
California Republicans favor presidential candidate Mitt Romney by a comfortable margin over other Republicans, a Field Poll released today shows.
When stacked up against 11 other announced or potential Republican candidates, Romney is the first choice of an eye-catching 25 percent of GOP voters in the state. If former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is excluded, Romney’s share jumps to 30 percent.
“He’s got a commanding lead in the early going,” pollster Mark DiCamillo said. “Romney has the formula of both being well-known and being positively perceived.”
Though the former Massachusetts governor announced his formal candidacy only June 2, Romney has long been beating the bushes for support. He spent $107 million seeking the 2008 Republican nomination, including $8.4 million that he raised from California donors.
The Los Angeles region was the third-leading source of campaign donations for Romney’s 2008 campaign, behind the Boston and Salt Lake City areas, figures compiled by the Center for
Responsive Politics show.
“He’s just a well-known figure,” DiCamillo noted. “He has tremendous name (identification), and that converts to preferences.”
Romney is viewed favorably by 56 percent of California Republicans and unfavorably by only 25 percent.
Perhaps this polling is why Mayor Rudy Giuliani continues to flirt with getting into the race.
But, if Rudy does not, Mitt Romney looks like a winner in California although Michele Bachmann who is a late entrant and is not known near as much – 42% have no impression of her candidacy may play here; as may Texas Governor Rick Perry, if he decides to run.
-
President 2012 New Hampshire GOP Watch: Michele Bachmann Breaks Through
According to the latest Magellan Strategies for NH Journal Poll.
- Mitt Romney – 42%
- Michele Bachmann – 10%
- Ron Paul – 10%
- Sarah Palin – 7%
- Rudy Giuliani – 6%
- Tim Pawlenty – 5%
- Newt Gingrich – 4%
- Herman Cain – 3%
- Jon Huntsman – 3%
There is little doubt that Michele Bachmann’s debate performance this week is propelling these poll numbers.
With Bachmann’s strength in Iowa, the likelihood of a win there, and while she trails former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney by a goodly amount now, she is poised to give him battle in New Hampshire.
Michele Bachmann is emerging as the anti-establsihment, Tea Party and anti-Romney candidate.
But the most surprising numbers emerged when we asked which candidates had the strongest debate performance. We asked this question of the 54% of respondents who said they watched the televised debate either on WMUR or CNN.
Thirty-nine percent said Romney gave the strongest performance. But an impressive 28% said Bachmann did. No other candidate finished in double-digits. Among self-identified conservatives who watched the debate, Bachmann performed even better. Among this group, 37% said Romney had the strongest performance, while 33% said Bachmann.
-
Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Rick Perry, Sarah Palin
President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney 30% Palin 14% Cain 12% Perry 8%
According to the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.
- Mitt Romney ………………….. 30
- Sarah Palin …………………… 14
- Herman Cain ………………….. 12
- Rick Perry ……………………… 8
- Ron Paul ……………………….. 7
- Newt Gingrich ………………… 6
- Tim Pawlenty ………………… 4
- Rick Santorum ……………….. 4
- Michele Bachmann …………. 3
- Jon Huntsman ………………… 1
- Other (VOL) ………………… 1
- None (VOL) …………………. 2
- Not sure ………………………… 8
As, I said earlier today, Mitt Romney is starting to consoldiate his position as a front-runner in the GOP field. If conservatives have an alternative, they had better declare now or the current field will battle it out and Romney looks like a winner.
-
Day By Day June 13, 2011 – Sharing
Chris, I understand the bar – I really do. Division of labor and all.But, we have to substitute “Yes We Can” with another slogan.
How about Michele Bachmann’s: Obama will be a ONE TERM President?
Previous:
-
President 2012 GOP Watch: California Republicans Organize Fundraising for Texas Governor Rick Perry
Texas Governor Rick Perry speaks at the 2010 Southern Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans, Louisiana in this April 9, 2010 photo
White the Texas Governor says he is thinking about a run for the Presidency, California GOP operatives are starting the pre-requisite fundraising.Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) is far from making a decision about a White House bid, but a cadre of California Republicans are raising money on his behalf in the meantime by starting a 527 organization.
California GOP consultant Bob Schuman filed paperwork Monday with the IRS to start Americans for Rick Perry, which aims to raise money and create a grass-roots operation on the governor’s behalf until he makes a decision about running for president.
Elizabeth Blakemore, a well-known Houston-based GOP fundraiser, is raising money for the group. Schuman said the goal is to bring in $500,000 by Aug. 1.
“It’s a 527 that we just started to start an independent expenditure campaign for Gov. Perry until he decides what he’s going to do,” Schuman told Roll Call in a phone interview. “We do have fundraisers on board, and they are frantically trying to raise money right now.”
Perry is far from announcing a campaign for president, but he’s indicated that he is considering a bid and recently scheduled several high-profile appearances at conservative events across the country over the next few weeks. Polls have shown that many GOP primary voters are not satisfied with the current crop of candidates, and without a true Southerner in the hunt, many Republicans see an opening for the governor if he decides to run.
Sounds like a go for Governor Perry.
Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann have been fundraiising in the Golden State for some time now.