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President 2012 GOP New Hampshire Poll Watch: Romney 25% Bachmann 18% Palin 11% Paul 9% Perry 7% Cain 6%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
When PPP polled New Hampshire in April Michele Bachmann was stuck at 4%. She’s gained 14 points over the last three months and now finds herself within single digits of Mitt Romney. Romney continues to lead the way in the state with 25% to 18% for Bachmann, 11% for Sarah Palin, 9% for Ron Paul, 7% for Rick Perry and Herman Cain, 6% for Jon Huntsman and Tim Pawlenty, and 4% for Newt Gingrich.
Bachmann’s surge in New Hampshire is being built on the back of the Tea Party. Among voters identifying themselves as members of that movement she’s leading the way at 25% with Palin and Romney tying for second at 16%, and Cain also placing in double digits at 11%. Only 33% of Republican primary voters in the state identify themselves as Tea Partiers though and with the remaining folks Romney’s way ahead with 33% to 13% for Bachmann, and 10% for Huntsman and Paul.
Romney’s starting to show some signs of weakness in New Hampshire. His support is down 12 points from 37% on the iteration of our April poll that didn’t include Mike Huckabee or Donald Trump. His favorability numbers are headed in the wrong direction as well. He’s dropped a net 18 points from +49 at 68/19 to +31 at 60/29. He’s certainly still the front runner in the state but he’s not looking as inevitable as he did a few months ago.
Sorry I am a little late to this poll, but I have been traveling and now blogging from Indianapolis. Indiana.
This is quite a chance in circumstances for Mitt Romney. He has decided early on not to compete in the first in the nation caucus in Iowa, certain in his own mind to win the first in the nation primary election in New Hampshire. However, Michele Bachmann has thrown a monkey wrench into this plan.
Now, it is uncertain as to what will happen when Texas Governor Rick Perry officially enters the race and then if Sarah Palin gets in after Perry enters.
Exit question: Is Romney a safe bet to win New Hampshire by a large enough margin to show momentum going into South Carolina and Florida?
We shall see.
New Hampshire may become Romney’s one and only early win and fade thereafter.
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President 2012: Texas Governor Rick Perry Buying Space for the Ames Iowa Straw Poll
Texas Gov. Rick Perry speaks at the Lincoln Dinner, an annual fundraising event for the New York GOP, Tuesday, June 14, 2011 in New York. Perry stirred speculation Tuesday that he would seek the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, championing his state’s economy before a packed GOP gathering in New York and telling a television interviewer he would engage in a “thought process” before deciding whether to join the field
Well, it is the Draft Perry folks since the Texas Governor has not officially made up his mind on whether to enter the Presidential race.An advocacy group that wants Texas Republican Rick Perry to run for president is seeking a presence at the Iowa straw poll this summer.
Americans for Rick Perry is taking steps to purchase a vendor spot, organizer Bob Schuman told The Des Moines Register today.
“We intend to have some kind of impact at the straw poll,” Schuman said. “We just don’t know what that is yet, but we’re working on it.”
The straw poll is a test of campaign strength and candidate popularity. It’s also a fundraiser for the Republican Party of Iowa.
Campaigns had one opportunity, on June 23, to buy a physical space on the straw poll campus, which guaranteed a right to address the audience from the main stage and locked in a line on the ballot.
Party rules don’t allow campaigns to buy spaces after that date.
Vendors and advocacy groups still can, but the purchase doesn’t mean a candidate will be allowed to speak or get a slot on the ballot.
Perry’s name has circulated as someone Republicans would like to see jump into the race.
Americans for Rick Perry, a 527 independent expenditure group that’s unaffiliated with Perry, is raising money on Perry’s behalf while he contemplates a presidential bid.
Schuman flew to Iowa Wednesday and has met with Jenifer Bowen of Iowa Right to Life, Bob Vander Plaats of the Family Leader, Steve Scheffler of the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition and others, he said.
The Texas governor is keeping his options open and the Team Sarah Palin is keeping a close eye on Perry.
If Perry runs, then there will be a happy dance in Wasilla because Perry undoubtedly will draw from the same base as Michele Bachmann. Sarah could then enter the fray and capture a plurality in Iowa, lose in New Hampshire and then test Romney in South Carolina and Florida.
Just as an aside, should Sarah Palin run, I think Rudy Giuliani enters the race maybe almost guaranteeing a long, protracted primary season and/or a “brokered” GOP convention.
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Day By Day June 30 and July 1, 2011 – Just in Time
Good morning everyone as we prepare for a major holiday weekend, national fundraising numbers are filtering out of D.C.. Yeah Obama is able to raise some big money and everyone is waiting to see what Michele Bachmann is able to raise.And, California sales taxes, plus motor vehicle registration fees decrease because of the California GOP’s resistance to tax increases. Good job, California GOP.
As the POLS flee Washington and Sacramento for the 4th of July, we can have solace that it could be worse, since the NBA, NFL and the state of Minnesota are now effectively shutdown.
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President 2012: Will Michele Bachmann Drive Mitt Romney to the GOP Nomination?
Yes, as I have written before here.Therefore, I agree with this analysis from Larry Sabato et. al..
In 2012 the Republican presidential nomination calendar starts off with Iowa, followed by New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Florida is jockeying for a top position as well. As Chart 1 indicates, Iowa’s GOP electorate is the most conservative of those five states.
Iowa and South Carolina are dominated by evangelical Christian voters who could be more supportive of a religious conservative like Bachmann. New Hampshire and Florida, on the other hand, are more favorable for a moderate candidate such as Romney. (Nevada’s caucusgoers, a quarter of whom were Mormon, went for Romney by a wide margin in 2008.) Remember that ex-Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, an evangelical favorite, won Iowa in 2008, but that proved to be the peak of his campaign.
When considering the makeup of the early states, the map looks reasonably well-suited for Romney, so long as he wins New Hampshire, where polling indicates he is a huge favorite at this early stage. He likely will be favored to do well again in Nevada, and although evangelical-rich South Carolina will be a challenge for Romney, he could make up for a setback there in friendlier Florida.
A Bachmann victory in Iowa could eliminate at least one of Romney’s rivals, potentially even Pawlenty. Romney then could confront Bachmann on friendlier territory in New Hampshire, where her religious conservatism would not play quite as well. That would put Romney in the position of John McCain in 2008, as the ideologically questionable front-runner fending off a challenger more beloved by the base (Bachmann as 2012’s Huckabee). Romney is betting that the GOP establishment will get behind him this time, as it did for McCain four years ago.
Perhaps Romney, who is not participating in the Ames, IA straw poll in August, will mimic McCain’s path in another way: effectively skipping Iowa and letting Bachmann do his work there for him.
Will this strategy work? Can Romney truly count on rescue by a party establishment nervous about offending the Tea Party? Will GOP voters even listen to party and elected leaders after all those grassroots victories in 2010? These and so many more questions will keep us occupied for months to come.
And, then there may be a wild card of Sarah Palin in there. I don’t think Texas Governor Rick Perry will be much of a threat to Mitt Romney.
But, Sarah would…..
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Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty
President 2012 New Hampshire GOP Poll Watch: Michele Bachmann Now in Second Place to Mitt Romney
According to the latest Suffolk University Poll.
While former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney remains a front-runner in New Hampshire, Michele Bachmann climbed 8 points since May, to 11 percent, according to a Suffolk University/7NEWS (WHDH TV) poll of likely voters in New Hampshire’s GOP presidential primary.
Bachmann’s gain was more than that of any other candidate. Romney, with 36 percent support, gained 1 point since Suffolk University’s last Granite State poll was released nearly two months ago.
GOP Primary election:
- Mitt Romney – 36%
- Michele Bachmann – 11%
- Ron Paul – 8%
- Rudy Giuliani – 5%
- Sarah Paln – 4%
- Jon Huntsman – 4%
- Tim Pawlenty – 2%
- Newt Gingrich – 2%
Michele Bachmann distinguished herself in he Manchester, New Hampshire debate a few weeks ago and it is paying her dividends in the polls.
Among those who watched the Republican Presidential debate in Manchester earlier this month, 33 percent said Romney won the debate, while 31 percent gave the win to Bachmann.
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Day By Day June 28, 2011 – Heavy
Never underestimate the power of women…..
A good lesson for President Obama vis a vis Michele Bachmann.
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President 2012 Oregon GOP Poll Watch: Without Sarah Palin in the Race Michele Bachmann Leads in Oregon
According to the latest PPP Poll.
GOP Primary election with Sarah Palin as a candidate:
- Mitt Romney – 28%
- Michele Bachmann – 18%
- Sarah Palin – 16%
- Ron Paul – 9%
- Herman Cain – 8%
- Tim Pawlenty – 6%
- Newt Gingrich – 6%
- Jon Huntsman – 0%
GOP Primary election without Sarah Palin as a candidate:
- Mitt Romney – 28%
- Michele Bachmann – 29%
- Ron Paul – 10%
- Herman Cain – 7%
- Tim Pawlenty – 6%
- Newt Gingrich – 9%
- Jon Huntsman – 2%
Michele Bachmann is polling well in Oregon and this poll and in other states are being referred to as the Bachmann “Surge.” The LEFT is sure picking on Michele with “gotcha moments” with everything she says.
I guess they can read the polls too.
After a well received debate performance, Michele Bachmann has surged forward. Before the debate, Bachmann garnered 8% nationally; but she has more than doubled this level of support in the three states PPP has polled the primary since the debate. However, if Sarah Palin runs, this isn’t enough to claim the lead in Oregon. Mitt Romney takes the lead with 28%, followed by Bachmann with 18%, Palin with 16%, Ron Paul with 9%, Herman Cain with 8%, Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty with 6%, and Jon Huntsman with 0% support.
If Palin does not run, Bachmann is the clear choice of Palin’s supporters while Romney picks up an insignificant share. Bachmann leads with 29% to Romney’s 28%, Paul’s 10%, Gingrich’s 9%, Cain’s 7%, Pawlenty’s 6%, and Huntsman’s 2%. Bachmann’s strength lies in her appeal to very conservative voters who make up 44% of GOP voters in Oregon. If Palin runs, Bachmann wins very conservatives with 24% to Romney’s 22%. This margin is expanded to a 37-26 lead without Palin.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Michele Bachmann In a Strong Position in GOP Field
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, who formally announced her presidential candidacy Monday in her hometown of Waterloo, Iowa, enters the race with 69% name recognition among Republicans and ties for the highest Positive Intensity Score of any GOP candidate Gallup tracks.
Bachmann finds herself in a relatively positive position among Republicans as she begins her formal campaign. Her name recognition is up to 69% for the two-week period of June 13-26, having climbed from 52% in late February/early March. This places her fifth among the most well-known Republicans Gallup measures, behind Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, and Ron Paul, but well ahead of Tim Pawlenty, Jon Huntsman, and several other competitors. Bachmann’s Positive Intensity Score of 24 ties with Herman Cain’s as the highest such score of any candidate, and is her highest to date. Bachmann’s ability to maintain her relatively high Positive Intensity Score as she has become better known distinguishes her from several of her competitors.
The intensity of the personal attacks and the chatter about Bachmann’s misstatements about John Wayne and John Quincy Adams show the threat she poses to the LEFT and President Obama. They are trying to give Bachmann the same Saul Alinsky type ridicule treatment as they gave to Sarah Palin. I don’t think it will stick as it is a worn out theme.
So, what does this all mean?
Michele Bachmann is in a good position to be the anti-Romney Tea Party candidate. She will run to the RIGHT of the GOP establishment candidate, Romney. The native born Iowan and Minnesota Rep. Bachmann should be able to turn back Mitt Romney in Iowa. In fact, most pundits feel Iowa’s GOP Caucuses are Bachmann’s to lose.
The GOP race next moves to New Hampshire, where Mitt Romney is far ahead in the polls. Then, Nevada where Romney has the advantage.
South Carolina would be the next test for Bachmann. If she survives, then Florida and Super Tuesday.
Now, all of this is predicated on the fact of a non-candidacy of Sarah Palin. Should Sarah enter the race, all bets are off and hold onto your hats.
Two Republican presidential candidates — Bachmann and Cain — stand out significantly above the others in terms of the positive intensity they generate from Republicans who know them. These two candidates have generally received the most positive emotional responses from Republicans all year, and, in the case of Bachmann, this has now manifested itself in strong showings in trial-heat polls conducted in Iowa and an increased national stature.
On the other hand, the images of other candidates who have announced their candidacies have become less rather than more positive. Gingrich, Huntsman, Paul, and Pawlenty all now have lower Positive Intensity Scores than earlier this year, even as they have campaigned more actively.
Romney too has seen his Positive Intensity Score slide slightly in this latest reporting period, and on this dimension he sits well behind Bachmann and Cain — although ahead of most of his other competitors except for the unannounced Palin.
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President 2012: Michele Bachmann and “Are You a Flake” Flap
Then, this morning there is this from Politico.
Via POLITICO’s Jennifer Epstein, Michele Bachmann isn’t accepting an apology from Fox News Sunday host Chris Wallace for asking her yesterday, “Are you a flake?”
Continue ReadingABC News’ Jon Karl, who’s been getting face-time with Bachmann in Waterloo in advance of her formal campaign announcement, played a clip of the web video in which Wallace said, “I messed up. I’m sorry.”
When Karl asked if she accepts the apology, Bachmann brushed aside the question this way: “I think that it’s insulting to insinuate that a candidate for president is less than serious.”
Trying the question again, Bachmann replied, “Those are the small issues. I’m focused on the big ones.”Well, Chris Wallace was patronizing and a jerk at best here. He rightly apologized, but women do not take to kindly to someone who ridicules them in this way.
Michele Bachmann handled it about right and she does have more important things to concentrate on this morning as she just announced her candidacy for the Presidency in Waterloo, Iowa.
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President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: Romney 23% Vs Bachmann 22% Vs. Cain 10%
Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
According to the latest Des Moines Register Iowa Poll.Two-time candidate Mitt Romney and tea party upstart Michele Bachmann are neck and neck leading the pack, and retired pizza chief Herman Cain is in third place in a new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll of likely participants in the state’s Republican presidential caucuses.
The results are bad news for the earnest Tim Pawlenty, a former Minnesota governor who is in single digits despite a full-throttle campaign.
Romney, a former Massachusetts governor and business executive, claims 23 percent, and Bachmann, a Minnesota congresswoman and evangelical conservative, garners 22 percent. Neither has done heavy lifting in Iowa.
The rest of the Republican field is at least 12 points behind them.
As, I have said for the past few weeks, this race is boiling down to one between Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann. The only wild cards in the race are whether Texas Governor Rick Perry will run and of course, what Sarah Palin will do. Palin is traveling to Iowa this week for the debut of her documentary.