• Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Virginia Poll Watch: Obama 51% vs. Romney 44%, Obama 53% Vs. Huckabee 44%

    According to the latest Washington Post poll.

    Presidential Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • Barack Obama – 57% Vs. 40% (49% vs. 46%)

    General Election Head to Head:

    • Obama – 51% vs. Romney – 44% (48% Vs. 46%)
    • Obama – 53% Vs. Huckabee – 44% (50% Vs. 46%)
    • Obama – 55% Vs. Pawlenty – 35% (51% Vs. 38%)
    • Obama – 61% Vs. Trump – 30% (54% Vs. 35%)
    • Obama – 61% Vs. Palin – 30% (55% Vs. 36%)

    Virginia is a key battleground state that the Republican nominee will need to deny President Barack Obama a second term. Undoubtedly, President Obama has received a bounce from the Osama bin Ladin operation and this is somewhat reflected in this poll.

    However, the GOP will either have to nominate someone else or hope that Romney and/or Huckabee will be able to persuade Virginia voters.

    Survey of 1,180 adults in Virginia was conducted April 28 – May 4, 2011; including 677 interviews before the killing of Osama bin Laden, with 503 afterward. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Results from interviews conducted before the announcement of bin Laden’s death are in parentheses.

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President GOP Poll Watch: Business and the Economy Top Issues for Republicans

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Given a choice, 36% of Republicans say business and the economy are the most important political issues to them, up from 32% in March, and now on par with the percentage who say the same about government spending and power. Fewer Republicans choose either social issues and moral values or national security and foreign policy as their top political priorities.

    This is really not surprising – it is the economy, stupid. The GOP nominee, whoever it may be, may very well ride to the Presidency on the back of Obama’s poor economic performance.

    However, there should be a warning attached to this poll since polling occurred prior to the Osama Bin Laden killing operation.

    Let’s look at the demographics of the GOP and the important issues:

    Interesting that younger Republicans are more concerned about social issues than their older counterparts. I find this hard to believe so this may be an outlier in the sample.

    Younger Republicans, those aged 18 to 29, are more likely than their elders to choose social/moral issues as their top priority, and less likely to choose government spending and power. This is somewhat counterintuitive. Younger Americans in previous Gallup research have been the most likely to rate the current state of moral values as excellent or good, and most likely to say moral values are getting better rather than worse.

    And, who do social issue Republicans choose as their Presidential nominee?

    Mike Huckabee

    The graph:

    So, what are the implications of this polling?

    • Mike Huckabee has strength within the GOP and will now likely seek the Presidency.
    • Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, who has mentioned a “truce” on social issues, might very well do well emphasizing economic issues as the social issues do not appear to be a prominant concern for Republicans.

    Republicans clearly have two main political concerns that now provide the prism through which they view next year’s presidential election — government spending/power and the economy. They are significantly less likely to say either social issues or national security and foreign policy are their top concerns.

    Republicans who prioritize business and the economy are more likely to be moderate or liberal in their ideology than the average Republican. They do not have a strongly differentiated choice for president, spreading their support among Romney, Huckabee, and Palin, in that order.

    Those who prioritize government spending and power are more likely than average to be conservative, and split their early support between Huckabee and Romney. Palin does much less well among this group, barely edging out Texas Congressman Ron Paul by one point.

    More than a fourth of Republicans whose top priority is social/moral issues choose Huckabee for their party’s presidential nomination, the highest proportion of support for a candidate among any of the four issue groups. Social issue Republicans also like Palin, while giving only single-digit support to any other candidate.

    The small group of Republicans whose priority focus is on national security and foreign policy split their support among Palin, Huckabee, and Romney.

  • Day By Day,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  President 2012,  Tim Pawlenty

    Day By Day May 6, 2011 – Balls

    Day By Day by Chris Muir

    The South Carolina GOP Presidential debate last night was disappointing. None of the REAL candidates bothered to show up for this Fox News sponsored event.

    I mean REALLY who can take Rick Santorum, Gary Johnson or Ron Paul seriously?

    The GOP Presidential race is getting a late start and it is probably for the best. The REAL candidates will be savaged by an Obama supporitng MSM and why give them a head start prior to the summer.

    So, who do I think will run?

    Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty.

    Who will be the nominee?

    Mike Huckabee or Mitch Daniels.

    But, we will see, since it it not clear at this time whether Huckabee or Daniels will even run.


    The Day by Day Archive

  • Donald Trump,  Jon Huntsman,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee Lead – Palin and Trump = Not So Much

    According to the latest Quinnipiac National Poll.

    By healthy margins, American voters say they would consider or be enthusiastic about backing former governors Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee for president, but 58 percent would never support Sarah Palin or Donald Trump, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

    No surprise here.

    Sarah Palin and Donald Trump will NOT be candidates, in any case.

    The race will either be Huckabee Vs. Romney Vs. Daniels or Huckabee Vs. Romney Vs. Pawlenty. And, Jon Huntsman will be in the mix somewhere.

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Florida GOP Poll Watch: Romney 26% Huckabee 12% Gingrich 11% Palin 9%

    According to the latest ARG Poll.

    This is the third poll in less than a month that has been especially favorable for Mitt Romney. Here is the other poll.

    With Romney having a virtual lock on New Hampshire and Nevada, and him polling well in Pennsylvania and Arizona is Romney setting himslef up as the front runner?


    And, what affect will this Florida polling have on a possible Mitch Daniels or even Mike Hucakbee’s candidacy?

    A good day for Mitt Romney.

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Arizona Poll Watch: Mitt Romney 48% Vs. Barack Obama 44%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • President Barack Obama – 46% Vs. 50%

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Newt Gingrich – 26% Vs. 59%
    • Mike Huckabee – 35% Vs. 48%
    • Sarah Palin – 32% Vs. 62%
    • Mitt Romney – 45% Vs. 37%
    • Donald Trump – 24% Vs. 66%

    Interesting that Mitt Romney is the only GOP candidate in positive favorable territory.

    General election Head to Head:

    • Barack Obama – 47% Vs. Newt Gingrich – 40%
    • Barack Obama – 46% Vs. Mike Huckabee – 44%
    • Barack Obama – 49% Vs. Sarah Palin – 38%
    • Mitt Romney – 48% Vs. Barack Obama – 44%
    • Barack Obama – 48% Vs. Donald Trump – 36%

    Again, only Mitt Romney leads President Obama. This is the third state in the last month, including Nevada and Pennsylvania that Romney is the ONLY Republican beating Obama.

    There has been speculation that Sarah Palin may move from Alaska to Arizona. But, she would not receive a warm welcome as only 27% say they would like her to move to Arizona, whereas 57% hope she stays away. 16% don’t offer an opinion.

    Again, it seems Arizona voters are unhappy with the GOP Field. Will the addition of Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels make a difference? Or is Mitt Romney good enough?

    The entire poll is here.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  William Kristol

    President 2012: Enter Mitch Daniels, Mike Huckabee and Michelle Bachman into the Race

    According to Bill Kristol at the Weekly Standard.

    Mitch Daniels is likely, I’m told, to announce his candidacy for the GOP presidential nomination in the next couple of weeks. Michelle Bachman will, I think, enter the race in June. And it now looks as if Mike Huckabee is also going to run.

    Saturday evening, while tout Washington was “enjoying” the White House Correspondents Dinner—and while some of us, I might add, were truly enjoying the lovely wedding of Mary Katharine Ham and Jake Brewer—Mike Huckabee was speaking to the annual meeting of the National Rifle Association in Pittsburgh. It was the right place to be if you’re interested in the GOP presidential nomination. And by all accounts Huckabee gave a very effective speech, striking a populist tone while vigorously taking on Obama’s agenda across the board, linking social and economic issues, and asserting “I want you to know that I stand here tonight as a gun-clinger and as a God-clinger unapologetically.”

    Mike Huckabee will enter as the front runner, especially in Iowa. Will Mitch Daniels compete there since Michelle Bachmann is a native Iowan or gear up for New Hampshire, where he will go up against Mitt Romney?

    The next few weeks should get very interesting.

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: 26 Per Cent Want Someone Else

    According to the latest University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll.

    • Mike Huckabee – 16%
    • Mitt Romney – 15%
    • Sarah Palin – 10%
    • Newt Gingrich – 4%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 5%
    • Someone Else – 26%
    • Don’t Know – 11%

    Another poll indicative of the fact that the GOP Presidential race is wide open. The filed will solidify in a couple of weeks and definitely by mid-June.

  • Mike Huckabee,  President 2012

    President 2012: Mike Huckabee Asking Folks to Keep Their Powder Dry

    Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee

    Is Mike Huckabee in or out of the Presidential race?

    One of Mike Huckabee’s political confidantes in the early primary state of South Carolina spoke with the former Arkansas governor Thursday and received assurances that he is still “seriously” weighing a presidential bid.

    Mike Campbell, who chaired Huckabee’s South Carolina campaign in 2008, told CNN that he called his former boss after a South Carolina blog erroneously claimed that Huckabee had decided against running again in 2012.

    The report quickly shot around the web Wednesday and forced Huckabee’s team to knock down the rumor.

    Campbell called the blog item “a bunch of bull” but said he decided to call Huckabee anyway.

    “He said, ‘Mike, obviously that’s unfounded and completely untrue,'” Campbell said of his conversation with Huckabee. “He told me, ‘I’m just asking folks to keep their powder dry because there may be something coming in the future that may be worth keeping your powder dry for.”

    Asked about his presidential intentions, the former Arkansas governor told Campbell, “I am weighing it very heavily and I am considering it as seriously as I have ever been.”

    I say Huck will run and when you see Chuck Norris make an appearance, then we will know for sure. Ed Rollin’s statement a while ago was key.

    Huckabee was NOT considering the race but with all of the polls showing him doing so well, he has been persuaded to go for it.

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Nevada GOP Poll Watch: Romney 24% Trump 16% Gingrich 11% Huckabee 10%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Mitt Romney – 64% Vs. 23%
    • Mike Huckabee – 61% Vs. 26%
    • Newt Gingrich – 61% Vs. 21%
    • Sarah Palin – 65% Vs. 26%
    • Donald Trump – 47% Vs. 40%

    But, Mitt Romney’s lead is declining as Donald Trump has entered the field.

    Mitt Romney continues to be the early favorite to win the Republican race in Nevada next year, as he did in 2008. But his support in the state is on the decline, suggesting he may not be able to take a repeat victory for granted.

    This is the fourth look we’ve taken at the GOP contest in Nevada and Romney’s support there has been on a steady decline. Last July he was at 34% in the state and he maintained that 34% standing in an October poll of Republican voters. But in January he dropped to 31% and now he’s at this 24% level. It’s no coincidence that Romney’s loss of support coincides with Pawlenty vaulting from 1% in January to now 8% in the Nevada polling. The two appeal to a similar type of voter and generally any time we’ve seen Pawlenty gain we’ve seen a corresponding Romney fall.

    Mitt Romney has to be considered the favorite in the Nevada caucuses. He is Mormon and there is a large population of LDS voters who WILL march to the caucuses to vote for one of their own. Donald Trump will fade as the weeks meander towards summer.

    The GOP Caucus preference:

    • Romney – 24%
    • Trump – 16%
    • Gingrich – 11%
    • Huckabee 10%
    • Palin – 8%
    • Pawlenty – 8%
    • Bachmann – 7%
    • Paul – 5%

    Yeah, I would be shocked if Romney did not win Nevada. 

    So, let’s see how it breaks out:

    • Iowa = Huckabee (if he runs)
    • New Hampshire = Romney (but by how much?)
    • Nevada = Romney
    • South Carolina = Huckabee (if he runs)
    • Florida (where the real race starts)
    • Super Tuesday – ?

    The entire poll is here.