Update: President 2012: Mike Huckabee Better in or Better Out of the Race?; Huck Won’t Run

Posted Posted in Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, President 2012, RomneyCare

+++++Update+++++

Mike Huckabee announced tonight on his Fox News Show that he will not be a candidate for President

Better in for the Republican Party.

And this from Democratic Pollster PPP.

Rumor has it Huckabee may announce that he is not running on his Fox News show tomorrow. That would be good news, at least for the time being, for the president. Huckabee gives him more trouble than the others in the South, in Appalachia, and up and down the Mississippi–including in states where the president remains strong (like North Carolina and Virginia) and states where he has declined since 2008 (like Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Missouri). The GOP almost certainly needs to return to Southern dominance and dip into either the West or Midwest–or both–to win the White House next year, and it remains to be seen whether another candidate can establish the rapport with these voters that Huckabee has. 

Romney is not a much weaker alternative in these states, and he does put Obama more on the defensive in the Northeast and Southwest, particularly Nevada and New Hampshire, than does Huckabee. But Huckabee would certainly be leaving both a good shot at the nomination and a decent shot at Obama on the table by keeping his hat out of the ring.

Mike Huckabee is a stronger candidate than Mitt Romney and will provide an alternative to Mitch Daniels, should he falter. Moreover, should Huck not run, Sarah Palin may decide to go. Her polling against President Obama has been appalling.

All in all having the affable, Baptist minister in the race is better for the GOP, than Donald Trump, Newt Ginrich or Tim Pawlenty.

President 2012: Mike Huckabee Better in or Better Out of the Race?

Posted Posted in Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, President 2012, RomneyCare

Better in for the Republican Party.

And this from Democratic Pollster PPP.

Rumor has it Huckabee may announce that he is not running on his Fox News show tomorrow. That would be good news, at least for the time being, for the president. Huckabee gives him more trouble than the others in the South, in Appalachia, and up and down the Mississippi–including in states where the president remains strong (like North Carolina and Virginia) and states where he has declined since 2008 (like Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Missouri). The GOP almost certainly needs to return to Southern dominance and dip into either the West or Midwest–or both–to win the White House next year, and it remains to be seen whether another candidate can establish the rapport with these voters that Huckabee has. 

Romney is not a much weaker alternative in these states, and he does put Obama more on the defensive in the Northeast and Southwest, particularly Nevada and New Hampshire, than does Huckabee. But Huckabee would certainly be leaving both a good shot at the nomination and a decent shot at Obama on the table by keeping his hat out of the ring.

Mike Huckabee is a stronger candidate than Mitt Romney and will provide an alternative to Mitch Daniels, should he falter. Moreover, should Huck not run, Sarah Palin may decide to go. Her polling against President Obama has been appalling.

All in all having the affable, Baptist minister in the race is better for the GOP, than Donald Trump, Newt Ginrich or Tim Pawlenty.

President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Gets a Bounce – Obama – 47% Vs. Romney – 42%

Posted 1 CommentPosted in Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin

According to the latest PPP Poll.

The killing of Osama bin Laden has given Barack Obama a bounce in his approval ratings. But it doesn’t appear to have boosted his chances for reelection.

PPP this month finds Obama with a 49% approval rating to 43% of voters who disapprove. That’s a seven point improvement on the margin since last month’s national survey when slightly more voters (48%) gave him poor marks for his work than good ones (47%). Obama’s greatest improvement has come with Republicans (from 8% approval to 14%). He’s up with independents (from 44% to 49%) and with Democrats (from 81% to 83%) by smaller amounts.

More voters may like Obama for the moment, but there aren’t more planning to support him next year. Last month Obama led the Huckabee/Romney/Palin/Gingrich quartet by an average of 10.75 points. This month Obama leads those same four candidate by an average of…10.75 points. There’s been no improvement in his reelect numbers whatsoever since the bin Laden death and if there hasn’t been in the week after the killing it doesn’t seem likely there will be 18 months after the killing either. What Obama’s approval bounce appears to be is an increase in the percentage of people who say they like him, but still won’t vote for him. They appreciate him taking out bin Laden but that’s not going to outweigh everything he’s done that they don’t like over the course of the last 27 months.

Approval Vs. Disapproval:

  • Mike Huckabee – 33% Vs. 41%
  • Sarah Palin – 33% Vs. 60%
  • Newt Gingrich – 29% Vs. 53%
  • Mitt Romney – 32% Vs. 41%
  • Donald Trump – 24% Vs. 65%
  • Mitch Daniels – 14% Vs. 33% Vs. 53% (not sure)

Again, voters are not amored with the Republican Presidetial candidates and the one new face, Mitch Daniels is not really known.

We also tested Mitch Daniels on this poll and he trails 48-34 but what might be most interesting is his favorability numbers with Republicans. Only 23% express a favorable opinion of him to 25% with an unfavorable one. I think a fair amount of that ‘unfavorable’ rating can be explained by voters who rate just about any politician they’ve never heard of negatively- which I think is about 10% of the population- but those are not impressive numbers by any stretch of the imagination. Beltway journalists are clearly a lot more enamored with Daniels than actual GOP voters are.

General Election Head to Head:

  • Obama – 49% Vs. Huckabee – 42%
  • Obama – 54% Vs. Palin – 37%
  • Obama – 52% Vs. Gingrich – 38%
  • Obama – 47% Vs. Romney – 42%

Again, this is a national poll and the election contest is in key battleground sates. But, it is surprising that Obama did not receive more of a bounce with the killing of Osama Bin Laden. This event will fade with time.

What the GOP nominess should hope is that their favorability improves.

The entire poll is here.

PPP surveyed 814 American voters from May 5th to 8th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political 

organization.  PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.  PPP  is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times

found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

President 2012 Virginia Poll Watch: Obama 52% Vs. Huckabee 43%

Posted Posted in Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin

According to the latest PPP Poll.

Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

  • President Barack Obama – 51% vs. 44%

Democrats are united for the President.

The biggest key for him is that he has the Democratic base completely behind him- 94% approve to only 4% who disapprove. Virginia still has a lot of white conservative Democrats, particularly in certain parts of the state, so for Obama to have almost unanimous approval within his party is very impressive. He even has more Republicans (albeit a paltry 7%) who approve of him than there are Democrats (4%) who disapprove. That’s not something we’re seeing in our polling very often right now. Independents narrowly give him good marks, 48/46, as well.

Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

  • Mike Huckabee – 37% Vs. 42%
  • Mitt Romney – 35% Vs. 43%
  • Newt Gingrich – 26% Vs. 54%
  • Sarah Palin – 31% Vs. 62%
  • Donald Trump – 22% vs. 69%

General Election Head to Head:

  • Obama – 52% Vs Huckabee – 43%
  • Obama – 51% Vs. Romney – 40%
  • Obama – 54% Vs. Gingrich – 37%
  • Obama – 55% Vs. Palin – 40%
  • Obama – 54% Vs. Trump – 32%

Virginia is a key battleground sate that the GOP needs to flip in 2012. Compare the results of the most recent Washington Post poll of Virginia.

Similar, no?

In Virginia, the GOP Presidential candidate field is not very popular and well received. If the Republicans want to take back Virginia’s Electoral College votes, they will need to run candidates other than the current field. Calling on Mitch Daniels and/or Chris Christie.

Even if Obama was unpopular in Virginia he’d still be in a decent position to win the state again because the GOP contenders are so weak there. Take those unpopular Republicans and combine them with a decently popular Obama and you have a very difficult battle for the GOP to get Virginia back. And it’s hard to imagine the party winning back the White House without Virginia- because of that fact and because of Obama’s relative strength there, this is looking to me like the most important state in the Presidential race next year.

Exactly and why Mitch Daniels or Chris Christie will jump into the race.

The entire poll is here.

President 2012 Virginia Poll Watch: Obama 51% vs. Romney 44%, Obama 53% Vs. Huckabee 44%

Posted 1 CommentPosted in Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty

According to the latest Washington Post poll.

Presidential Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

  • Barack Obama – 57% Vs. 40% (49% vs. 46%)

General Election Head to Head:

  • Obama – 51% vs. Romney – 44% (48% Vs. 46%)
  • Obama – 53% Vs. Huckabee – 44% (50% Vs. 46%)
  • Obama – 55% Vs. Pawlenty – 35% (51% Vs. 38%)
  • Obama – 61% Vs. Trump – 30% (54% Vs. 35%)
  • Obama – 61% Vs. Palin – 30% (55% Vs. 36%)

Virginia is a key battleground state that the Republican nominee will need to deny President Barack Obama a second term. Undoubtedly, President Obama has received a bounce from the Osama bin Ladin operation and this is somewhat reflected in this poll.

However, the GOP will either have to nominate someone else or hope that Romney and/or Huckabee will be able to persuade Virginia voters.

Survey of 1,180 adults in Virginia was conducted April 28 – May 4, 2011; including 677 interviews before the killing of Osama bin Laden, with 503 afterward. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Results from interviews conducted before the announcement of bin Laden’s death are in parentheses.

President GOP Poll Watch: Business and the Economy Top Issues for Republicans

Posted Posted in Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin

According to the latest Gallup Poll.

Given a choice, 36% of Republicans say business and the economy are the most important political issues to them, up from 32% in March, and now on par with the percentage who say the same about government spending and power. Fewer Republicans choose either social issues and moral values or national security and foreign policy as their top political priorities.

This is really not surprising – it is the economy, stupid. The GOP nominee, whoever it may be, may very well ride to the Presidency on the back of Obama’s poor economic performance.

However, there should be a warning attached to this poll since polling occurred prior to the Osama Bin Laden killing operation.

Let’s look at the demographics of the GOP and the important issues:

Interesting that younger Republicans are more concerned about social issues than their older counterparts. I find this hard to believe so this may be an outlier in the sample.

Younger Republicans, those aged 18 to 29, are more likely than their elders to choose social/moral issues as their top priority, and less likely to choose government spending and power. This is somewhat counterintuitive. Younger Americans in previous Gallup research have been the most likely to rate the current state of moral values as excellent or good, and most likely to say moral values are getting better rather than worse.

And, who do social issue Republicans choose as their Presidential nominee?

Mike Huckabee

The graph:

So, what are the implications of this polling?

  • Mike Huckabee has strength within the GOP and will now likely seek the Presidency.
  • Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, who has mentioned a “truce” on social issues, might very well do well emphasizing economic issues as the social issues do not appear to be a prominant concern for Republicans.

Republicans clearly have two main political concerns that now provide the prism through which they view next year’s presidential election — government spending/power and the economy. They are significantly less likely to say either social issues or national security and foreign policy are their top concerns.

Republicans who prioritize business and the economy are more likely to be moderate or liberal in their ideology than the average Republican. They do not have a strongly differentiated choice for president, spreading their support among Romney, Huckabee, and Palin, in that order.

Those who prioritize government spending and power are more likely than average to be conservative, and split their early support between Huckabee and Romney. Palin does much less well among this group, barely edging out Texas Congressman Ron Paul by one point.

More than a fourth of Republicans whose top priority is social/moral issues choose Huckabee for their party’s presidential nomination, the highest proportion of support for a candidate among any of the four issue groups. Social issue Republicans also like Palin, while giving only single-digit support to any other candidate.

The small group of Republicans whose priority focus is on national security and foreign policy split their support among Palin, Huckabee, and Romney.