• Newt Gingrich,  President 2012,  Rick Perry,  Rudy Giuliani

    President 2012: Newt Gingrich’s Campaign Staff Resigns En Masse – Going Over to Rick Perry?

    June 9, 2011 /

    Probably so, as I am tweeted the name and Hot Air seems to confirm.

    But, first the story.

    Newt Gingrich’s top staff quit en masse Thursday, throwing into question whether his already troubled presidential campaign can continue.

    Two sources close to the situation confirmed that campaign manager Rob Johnson, strategists Sam Dawson and Dave Carney, spokesman Rick Tyler, and consultants Katon Dawson in South Carolina and Craig Schoenfeld in Iowa have all quit to protest what one called a “different vision” for the campaign.

    The sources said Gingrich was staying in the race.

    The mass resignation was, one source said, “a team decision.”

    “We just had a different direction in which we wanted to take the campaign,” said a second source.

    Gingrich was intent on using technology and standing out at debates to get traction while his advisers believed he needed to run a campaign that incorporated both traditional, grassroots techniques as well as new ideas.

    One official said the last straw came when Gingrich went forward with taking a long-planned cruise with his wife last week in the Greek isles.

    After his bumpy start, rumors began to circulate in the political community the former House speaker’s days as a candidate were numbered. But the collective decision by his high command to quit makes it likely that his demise will be hastened.

    Let’s see. Rudy Giuliani is thinking he is in and now Texas Governor Rick Perry. What does that say about the race?

    It says that POLS think Obama is vulnerable.

  • Herman Cain,  Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rudy Giuliani,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney 49% Vs. Obama 46%

    June 7, 2011 /


    According to the latest Washington Post-ABC News Poll.

    The public opinion boost President Obama received after the killing of Osama bin Laden has dissipated, and Americans’ disapproval of how he is handling the nation’s economy and the deficit has reached new highs, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

    The survey portrays a broadly pessimistic mood in the country this spring as higher gasoline prices, sliding home values and a disappointing employment picture have raised fresh concerns about the pace of the economic recovery.

    By 2 to 1, Americans say the country is pretty seriously on the wrong track, and nine in 10 continue to rate the economy in negative terms. Nearly six in 10 say the economy has not started to recover, regardless of what official statistics may say, and most of those who say it has improved rate the recovery as weak.

    New Post-ABC numbers show Obama leading five of six potential Republican presidential rivals tested in the poll. But he is in a dead heat with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who formally announced his 2012 candidacy last week, making jobs and the economy the central issues in his campaign.

    Again, this is a national poll, so take it with a grain of salt. We all know that it is the election in key battleground states that really matter.

    Mitt Romney is leading President Obama, 49% to 46% among registered voters but it is within the margin of error, so it is not statistically relevant, although it does point out Obama’s vulnerability. The other GOP candidates do not fair as well as Mitt Romney (see the graphic above).

    GOP Primary election:

    • Romney – 21% (16%, 4/172011)
    • Palin – 17% (5%)
    • Giuliani – 8% (NA)
    • Gingrich – 6% (2%)
    • Paul – 6% (2%)
    • Pawlenty – 4% (1%)
    • Cain – 4% (NA)
    • Bachmann – 3% (1%)
    • None of the above – 5% (12%)

    Well, Mitt Romney is polling the best against Obama but it is uncertain as to whether he can win in the GOP nomination race. It is also uncertain whether Sarah Palin or Rudy Giuliani will run.

    My best guess, is that should Sarah Palin decide to roll the dice and run, that Rudy Giuliani will also enter the race. Rudy will count on the divisiveness of a Romney Vs. Palin contest, while he easily wins  East and West Coast Republican primary elections and delegates. He might also figure a deal with Romney to defeat Palin. A wild card in all of this will be Michele Bachmann who will run strong in the Iowa Caucus and may gather some momentum going into South Carolina.

    So, what does this all mean?

    The economy is weak, voters do not think it is improving, Obama is in trouble and the GOP Presidential field while hopeful, is uncertain, with no front runner.

    The entire poll is here.

  • Herman Cain,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Iowa Poll Watch: Obama 49% Vs. Romney 40%, Obama 55% Vs. Palin 35%

    June 3, 2011 /

    Electoral College vote map of Larry Sabato

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • President Barack Obama – 49% Vs. 46%

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Newt Gingrich – 19% vs. 63%
    • Sarah Palin – 29% Vs. 63%
    • Mitt Romney – 35% Vs. 47%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 25% Vs. 41%
    • Herman Cain – 20% vs. 40%

    General Election Head to Head:

    • Obama – 54% Vs. Gingrich – 33%
    • Obama – 55% Vs. Palin – 35%
    • Obama – 49% Vs. Romney – 40%
    • Obama – 49% Vs. Pawlenty – 37%
    • Obama – 50% Vs. Cain – 32%

    Although President Obama is doing better in Iowa than the past polling period, his job approval ratings still lag. Obviously, Iowa voters are not happy with the current GOP Presidential field and they all perform less than John McCain in 2008.

    When PPP polled Iowa in mid-April Barack Obama had negative approval numbers, was tied with Mike Huckabee, and led Mitt Romney by only 4 points in a state that he won by 10 points against John McCain in 2008. Now six weeks later Obama’s fortunes in the state have shifted dramatically, symbolizing the uptick in his political fortunes we’ve seen throughout the country in the month since the killing of Osama bin Laden. He now has positive approval numbers, doesn’t have to worry about Huckabee anymore, and has built his lead over Romney to a 9 point margin similar to what he won the last time around.

    Also, Iowa is NOT considered by many to be a KEY battleground state that the GOP will need to beat Obama in the Electoral College. See the list here.

    Obama’s approval numbers in Iowa aren’t that strong and it would certainly be premature to declare 17 months out from the election that he’ll win the state again. But the numbers here are another reminder that the weak Republican field is his greatest ally as he moves toward reelection, and that the GOP will have to come up with a stronger candidate to have a serious chance of defeating Obama next year.

    The entire poll is here.

  • Chris Christie,  Herman Cain,  Jeb Bush,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Paul Ryan,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: Romney 21% Cain 15% Palin 15% Gingrich 12%

    June 1, 2011 /

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Newt Gingrich – 39% Vs. 41%
    • Sarah Palin – 59% Vs. 31%
    • Mitt Romney – 51% Vs. 34%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 48% Vs. 18%
    • Herman Cain – 38% Vs. 24% Vs Not Sure = 38%
    • Michele Bachmann – 53% Vs. 16%
    • Jeb Bush – 51% Vs. 20%
    • Ron Paul – 42% Vs. 29%
    • Rick Santorum – 29% Vs. 18% Vs. Not Sure = 53%
    • Rudy Giuliani – 49% Vs. 31%
    • Donald Trump – 28% vs. 56%
    • Jon Huntsman – 7% Vs. 23% Vs. Not Sure = 70%
    • Chris Christie – 42% Vs. 12% Vs. Not Sure = 46%
    • Rick Perry – 21% Vs. 16% Vs. Not Sure = 63%
    • Paul Ryan – 42% Vs. 14% Vs. Not Sure = 45%

    GOP Primary Caucus Head to Head:

    Given the choices of Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you most like to see as
    the Republican candidate for President next year?

    • Romney – 21%
    • Palin – 15%
    • Cain – 15%
    • Gingrich -12%
    • Pawlenty – 10%
    • Ron Paul – 8%
    • Jon Huntsman – 0%

    If Sarah Palin does not run then?

    • Romney – 26%
    • Cain – 16%
    • Gingrich – 15%
    • Bachmann – 14%
    • Pawlenty – 10%
    • Paul – 11%
    • Huntsman – 1%

    If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?

    • Romney – 48% Vs. Palin – 41% Vs. Not Sure = 11%

    If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty, who would you vote for?

    • Romney – 41% Vs. Pawlenty – 41% Vs. Not Sure = 18%

    If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, who would you vote for?

    • Romney – 48% Vs. Cain – 34% Vs. Not Sure = 19%

    If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?

    Romney – 46% Vs. Bachmann – 38% Vs. Not Sure = 16%

    Mitt Romney is leading in Iowa ever since Mike Huckabee exited the race, but he is being challenged by a surging Herman Cain. Iowa will be the first primary state for the 2012 Presidential nominee and is a caucus state.

    Cain and Palin have been the biggest beneficiaries in Iowa of Huckabee and Trump’s decisions not to run. Cain is at 15% now despite not even having been included on our last poll. Palin’s gained 7 points in the six weeks since our last poll compared to 5 point gains for Romney, Pawlenty, and Bachmann, a 3 point gain for Gingrich, and a 2 point bump for Paul.

    Romney’s leading in Iowa based on his strength with centrist and center right Republican voters. With moderates he’s at 34% to 16% for Palin, 13% for Paul, and 11% for Gingrich. With ‘somewhat conservative’ voters he’s at 24% to 15% for Pawlenty, 13% for Palin, and 12% for Gingrich and Cain. His strength with those two groups outweighs his continuing weakness with the furthest right group of voters in the state, which constitute the largest segment of the Republican electorate at 41%. With those ‘very conservative’ folks Romney can muster only a fourth place finish at 13%. Cain and Palin tie for the lead with that group of voters at 19% followed by Bachmann at 15%.

    I would think one would have to say that while Mitt Romney is leading, conservative candidates Cain, Palin and Bachmann are splitting votes. If Iowa conservatives were to consolidate on one candidate, then Romney is in trouble. Surprisingly, Tim Pawlenty, a moderate-conservative does the best head to head with Romney though.

    Here is a summary of the favorable vs unfavorable data:

    So, what does this all mean?

    There is definitely room for the entry of a “new” candidate like Paul Ryan, Chris Christie or Jeb Bush. The $1 million question is whether Sarah Palin runs and if she does, whether the GOP establishment then run someone else against her, ie. Ryan,Christie or Bush?

    Tim Pawlenty is not catching fire and Jon Huntsman fledgling campaign is on life support – at least in Iowa.

    The entire poll is here.

  • Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Ohio Poll Watch: Obama 46% Romney 42%

    May 24, 2011 /

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • President Barack Obama – 46% Vs. 49%

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Mitt Romney – 32% Vs. 43%
    • Newt Gingrich – 22% Vs. 59%
    • Sarah Palin – 34% Vs. 58%

    General Election Head to Head:

    • Obama – 46% Vs. Romney – 42%
    • Obama – 50% Vs. Palin – 40%
    • Obama – 49% Vs. Gingrich – 40%

    The margin of error in this poll is 4.1%.

    Mitt Romney is far and above the best polling GOP candidate in Ohio and is withn the margin of error in this key battleground state. 

    President Obama is still in decent shape to take Ohio’s newly thinned slate of electors next year, if a little weaker than when PPP last polled the crucial swing state in mid-March.  Then, he led his closest competitor, Mitt Romney, 46-40.  Romney has closed the gap a little, to 46-42, as have Newt Gingrich (from 50-38 to 49-40) and even Sarah Palin (from 52-36 to 50-40).  In a hypothetical matchup with Sen. Rob Portman, Obama would prevail, 48-38. 

    There is good news for the president, though, in that even his close lead over Romney is essentially the same as his five-point victory over John McCain in 2008.  That result comes even in an electorate that reports having voted for him by only one point over McCain—indicating that turnout from Obama’s base is still lagging, as it did last fall, when Portman won election by a whopping 18 points.

    Mitt Romney has a chance against the President in Ohio but he will have to step up his game or hopes the economy tanks in order to beat him.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Ron Paul,  Rudy Giuliani,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 New Hampshire GOP Poll Watch: Romney 32% Paul 9% Gingrich 6% Palin 5% Bachmann 4%

    May 23, 2011 /

    According to the latest University of New Hampshire/WMUR/CNN Poll.

    Primary Election Head to Head:

    • Romney  32% 
    • Paul  9% 
    • Gingrich  6% 
    • Giuliani  6% 
    • Palin  5% 
    • Bachmann  4% 
    • Cain  4% 
    • Daniels #  4% 
    • Huntsman  4% 
    • Pawlenty  4% 
    • Santorum  2% 
    • Johnson  * 
    • Someone else  3% 
    • No opinion  17% 

    * Less than 1%    # Daniels announced that he would not run on last day of interviewing. 

    Satisfied with GOP candidates? – Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you  with the choice of candidates for the Republican nomination for President next year?  Are you 

    very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

    • Very satisfied  9% 
    • Somewhat satisfied  42% 
    • Somewhat dissatisfied  28% 
    • Very dissatisfied  15% 
    • No opinion  6% 

    Strongest GOP Leader:

    • Romney  40% 
    • Giuliani  12% 
    • Gingrich  11% 
    • Palin  3% 
    • Paul  3% 
    • Pawlenty  3% 
    • Bachmann  2% 
    • Cain  1% 
    • Daniels  1% 
    • Santorum  1% 
    • Huntsman  * 
    • Johnson  * 
    • Someone else  2% 
    • No opinion  20%

    Most Believable GOP candidate:

    • Romney  20% 
    • Paul  12% 
    • Gingrich  7% 
    • Palin  6% 
    • Bachmann  5% 
    • Cain  5% 
    • Giuliani  5% 
    • Pawlenty  5% 
    • Huntsman  4% 
    • Daniels  3% 
    • Santorum  2% 
    • Someone else  2% 
    • No opinion  23%

    Most Likeable GOP candidate:

    • Romney  29% 
    • Palin  10% 
    • Giuliani  8% 
    • Paul  7% 
    • Bachmann  6% 
    • Pawlenty  6% 
    • Gingrich  4% 
    • Cain  3% 
    • Huntsman  2% 
    • Santorum  2% 
    • Daniels  1% 
    • Johnson  * 
    • Karger  * 
    • Roemer  * 
    • Someone else  3% 
    • No opinion  17%

    Best GOP candidate to beat President Obama:

    • Romney  42% 
    • Giuliani  4% 
    • Pawlenty  4% 
    • Daniels  3% 
    • Gingrich  3% 
    • Palin  3% 
    • Bachmann  2% 
    • Cain  2% 
    • Huntsman  2% 
    • Paul  1% 
    • Santorum  1% 
    • Someone else  2% 
    • No opinion  31%

    Is there any doubt that Mitt Romney is far and above any other candidate in New Hampshire?

     

  • Donald Trump,  Herman Cain,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Ron Paul,  Rudy Giuliani,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney 20% Vs. Palin 12% Vs. Gingrich 9% Vs. Giuliani 7%

    May 18, 2011 /

    According to the latest Suffolk University Poll.

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Barack Obama – 51% Vs. 42%
    • Mitt Romney –  39% Vs. 32%
    • Mitch Daniels – 10% Vs. 14% Never heard of = 46%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 18% Vs. 16% Never heard of = 38%
    • Newt Gingrich – 29% Vs. 50%
    • Michele Bachmann – 20% vs. 28% Never heard of = 30%
    • Ron Paul – 24% Vs. 34%
    • Sarah Palin – 31% Vs. 58%

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • President Barack Obama – 47% Vs. 45%

    Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be re-elected or is it time to give someone else a chance?

    • Deserve Re-election – 43% 
    • Someone else – 48%

    GOP Primary Head to Head:

    • Romney – 20%
    • Palin – 12%
    • Gingrich – 9%
    • Giuliani – 7%
    • Paul – 5%
    • Daniels – 4%
    • Cain – 4%
    • Bachmann – 4%
    • Pawlenty – 3%

    General Election:

    • Obama – 46% vs. Romney – 43%
    • Obama – 47% Vs. Pawlenty – 31%
    • Obama – 50% Vs. Bachmann – 30%
    • Obama – 52% Vs. Gingrich – 38%
    • Obama – 48% Vs. Daniels – 30%

    Is the economy improving or getting worse?

    • Improving – 41%
    • Getting Worse – 46%

    This is again a national poll and it is not certain that Sarah Palin, Mitch Daniels or Rudy Giuliani will be candidates. And, the poll was taken before Huckabee and Trump dropped out.

    But, at the present time, it looks like you would have to consider Mitt Romney as the front runner.

    The nationwide survey of 1,070 United States likely voters was conducted May 10-17, 2011, using live telephone interviews. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence.

  • Bill Bennett,  Newt Gingrich,  President 2012

    President 2012: Bill Bennett Puts a Stake in the Heart of Newt Gingrich

    May 17, 2011 /

    The audio is here and listen to it all as Bill Bennett dissects Newt Gingrich while he is still alive.

    And, Jennifer Rubin takes Bennett’s knife and twists it.

    It is a stunningly effective interview, revealing Gingrich to be both unprincipled and dishonest. In as pleasant a tone possible, Bennett undoes the former House speaker, eventually telling him he didn’t advance the cause of conservatism on “Meet the Press.”

    Bennett was understandably not willing to write Gingrich’s epitaph. But he came close. And really, Gingrich did himself in, as he always has.

    Newt, it is over….

  • Newt Gingrich,  Obamacare,  President 2012

    President 2012: Newt Gingrich, Paul Ryan and Medicare Reforms

    May 16, 2011 /

    Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

    Former Speaker Newt Gingrich is out before he was ever in the 2012 Presidential race with his criticism of Rep. Paul Ryan’s Medicare reform plan.

    This morning Republicans are just beginning to assess the damage that former House Speaker and current presidential candidate Newt Gingrich has done to the GOP budget plan currently before Congress.  On “Meet the Press” Sunday, Gingrich denounced House Budget Committee chairman Paul Ryan’s plan to restructure Medicare, saying, “I don’t think right-wing social engineering is any more desirable than left-wing social engineering.  I don’t think imposing radical change from the right or the left is a very good way for a free society to operate.”

    On his radio program Monday morning, former Education Secretary Bill Bennett, who knows Gingrich well but is also close to Ryan, reacted angrily to Gingrich’s remarks.  Referring to Ryan’s Medicare plan as “right-wing social engineering” is, Bennett said, “an unforgivable mistake, in my judgment.”  Bennett went on to say that Gingrich “has taken himself out of serious consideration for the [2012] race.”

    Yeah, I would say Newt is toast for his hypocrisy alone on ObamaCare.

    The individual mandate is unconstitutional and is at the heart of ObamaCare. Newt understand this and in efforts to stand out from the GOP Presidential crowd has shot himself in the foot.

    Say good night, Gracie.

    Here is today’s video of Gingrich trying to climb back after his Meet the Press performance yesterday.

  • Chris Christie,  John Kasich,  Michele Bachmann,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Scott Walker

    President 2012: Huckabee is Out – Michele, Newt and Mitch In?

    May 14, 2011 /

    Yeah, particularly in Iowa.

    The presidential nominating process is a lot like the US Open tennis tournament. There is a final (the Republican v. Obama), a semifinal (the top conservative against the top moderate for the GOP nomination) and a quarter final (the conservatives against each other and the moderates competing together for the right to enter the semis).

    Mitt Romney and Donald Trump are centrists. Businessmen, economic growth free market types who will vie with each other for the moderate nomination. In 2008, Romney fought and lost to Huckabee for the conservative nod to oppose McCain. But, because of his health care position, he now has to fight it out on the moderate court.

    Mike Huckabee’s withdrawal opens the way on the right court for Gingrich, Bachmann, and Daniels. Had Mike run, he would have easily carried the day and faced Romney/Trump for the nomination. But, with Mike out, it’s an open field.

    Bachmann has the most to gain from Huckabee’s withdrawal. Polling shows that the Tea Party types and the evangelicals are more or less the same people. With Mike out, Michele has a clear shot at their support (once they get over Herman Cain and Ron Paul, neither of whom can win — and Paul shouldn’t win). As the odd-woman-out dissenting from the Boehner deals with Obama, holding out for fiscal conservatism and tough Republican bargaining, she can pick up a lot of ground in a hurry.

    Gingrich’s announcement puts the onus on him to dispel the negatives that dog his campaign. All agree that he would be the best opponent to Obama in a debate and that he is the brightest, best candidate would have. But many are scared off because of the negatives. He has six months to show them that they are wrong.

    And then there is Mitch Daniels, potentially, the conservative establishment’s answer to Romney. Despite an absence of charisma, his extraordinary record as governor puts him right in the thick of the hunt for the nomination. He, along with his supporters (Scott Walker of Wisconsin, Chris Christie of New Jersey, and John Kasich of Ohio), have walked the walk not just talked the talk. His candidacy is a most attractive one.

    And, if Sarah Palin decides to come in now, I would say the battle for the social conservatives will really heat up.

    Newt Gingrich with his personal baggage should be used as a foil against Obama but he is unelectable – too old and too damaged.

    Mitt Romney will have to compete in Iowa and will probably take a loss there even with Huckabee not in the race. Romney will be vulnerable in South Carolina too –then on to Florida.

    Exit question: Will Mitch Daniels with Scott Walker, John Kasich and Chris Christie endorsing him be able to beat Michele Bachmann in Iowa?